Population projection

Population projections make it possible to show future changes in the age structure of the population and to quantify that change. Since the population development is continuous, the accuracy of such projections is relatively good.
The model used by the Federal Statistical Office for population projection is a macro simulation using the entire population broken down by birth years and gender (by cohorts, as they are called); these cohorts are updated every year by means of age and gender-specific transition probabilities/frequencies. The model is based on the cohort component method widely used internationally. Projection components are demographic factors such as the birth rate, mortality and migration. Detailed assumptions are made regarding the development of those components in the projection period.
Assumptions relating to the development of the birth rate and mortality are based first and foremost on analyses of the trends those components have shown over time and in different countries. Also considered are hypotheses regarding the effects of social, economic and health-related developments which already start to show. While the trends of birth and mortality levels are more or less constant and their future developments are relatively clear, any estimation of migration involves a high degree of uncertainty. Migration depends to a great extent on legal, administrative and political intervention so that the evidence on which assumptions are based may rapidly be outdated when political constellations change.
As it is uncertain after all how the central influencing factors will develop in the course of the long projection period, various assumptions are made in most cases for the development of individual components. By combining the assumptions, different variants of the population projection are produced. The results of a projection can always be interpreted only in the context of the underlying assumptions.
As a rule, the Federal Statistical Office prepares "coordinated" population projections for Germany as a whole and for the Länder. A "coordinated" projection provides results based on harmonised assumptions and identical calculation methods which are comparable with each other.
For further details and information on the subject-matter please refer to the press conference entitled "Germany's Population by 2060".
The results of the 12th coordinated population projection in form of age pyramids for Germany and for the Länder.

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