The total of orders received comprises the value (excluding turnover tax) of all orders definitely accepted by the local units in manufacturing with 50 employees and over in the respective reference month. These orders refer to products from own production or from contract processing by other firms. To be able to analyse domestic and export demand, a distinction is made between domestic orders and orders received from abroad. The results are compiled each month in the form of value indices to measure the nominal development of demand and in the form of volume indices to illustrate the price-adjusted development of demand. The monthly indices of orders received in manufacturing rank among the most important early indicators for monitoring and analysing the short-term economic development in Germany. The economic-political sensitivity of these data on the development of demand - in so far as the latter can be measured by orders received - requires a particularly high degree of timeliness and accuracy in reporting.
How is the indicator calculated?
The index computation is based on the total value of firm orders in a reference month (in a breakdown by directions of trade, that is domestic orders and foreign orders). This total value is related to the corresponding monthly average in the base year and forms the value index for a branch of economic activity. In order to compile the volume index, a deflation is carried out using indices of producer prices or of export prices. The indices for the individual branches are aggregated for the whole of manufacturing and for its main groups on the basis of each branch's share in the value of orders received in the base year. The orders received also comprise production-related services. Cancellations of orders and changes in value due to price escalator clauses, on principle, are to be disregarded in current reports on orders received. Reorders or changes in orders are to be reported as new orders. Data on orders received are not collected in all the branches of manufacturing. In the main, only those branches are included in the index compilation in which the make-to-order production plays a prominent role. Not included are, for instance, mining, quarrying and the food industry. Indices of orders received or corresponding indices have been compiled in German official statistics since 1949. Statistics of orders received have been produced as part of the Monthly Report on Manufacturing since 1977. On the basis of the German "Classification of Economic Activities, Edition 2008 (WZ 2008)", information on orders received by kind-of-activity units is at present collected in 129 branches of manufacturing in a breakdown by domestic and foreign customers. For international purposes, the indices of orders received in manufacturing are additionally compiled according to the International Standard Industrial Classification ISIC Rev. 4.
When is the indicator published?
With the aim of providing information, as early as possible, on the current trends of demand in the highly important manufacturing industry, the Federal Statistical Office provides provisional results about five weeks after the end of the reference month (these are simultaneously published by the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology in a press release). For the release calendar concerning the index of orders received please visit the website of the Federal Statistical Office. The results are published under Publications, Specialized publications Auftragseingang und Umsatz im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe - Indizes, Fachserie 4, Reihe 2.2 (Subject-Matter Series 4, Series 2.2 "Orders received and turnover in manufacturing - Indices") and in a number of cross-section publications of the Federal Statistical Office.
How accurate is the indicator?
First results for all branches of economic activity are available about five weeks after the end of the reference month (provisional index). In part, at the time of calculation, not all local units have reported their data or have reported only estimates due to the short time available. To improve the quality of the information value of the indices at the current end, the expected need for correction is integrated into the provisional results. The estimate is based on the preceding month's values still contained in the current statistical data reported; basically, they are replaced by the rate of change of the data received within the deadlines, which is then included in the index calculation. Four weeks later, the estimates contained in the provisional indices are replaced by the original data then available and published together with the provisional indices of the following month. After the end of any year, all data changes received in the meantime are included in the so-called annual correction (final index).
