Press release No.089 / 2005-03-01

ILO labour market statistics January 2005

WIESBADEN – For the first time, the Federal Statistical Office is presenting a monthly unemployment figure based on the internationally comparable concept of the International Labour Organization (ILO). In January 2005, 3.99 million persons were unemployed. The number of persons in employment in January 2005 was down by about 600,000 persons (–1.5%) on a month earlier; that decline is mainly due to seasonal effects because some branches need considerably less labour in winter.

According to provisional calculations, the number of persons in employment whose place of residence is in Germany was about 38.5 million in January 2005; that was some 200,000 persons less than in January 2004. The employment/population ratio, that is the share of persons in employment in the total population aged 15 to 64 years, was 67.5%, which was 0.1 percentage points higher than a year earlier.

When seasonally adjusted, that is upon elimination of seasonal fluctuations, the number of persons in employment in January 2005 was by 14,000 larger than a month earlier. As in the preceding months, a positive influence on the employment trend was exerted especially by increases in employment forms supported by the “Hartz laws” (in particular “Ich-AGs” (Me PLC) and so-called additional jobs).

According to results of the Federal Statistical Office, the number of unemployed as determined by the telephone survey, was about 3.99 million in January 2005. That was an unemployment rate (share of unemployed in total labour force) of 9.4%. Young people are particularly affected by unemployment: For persons aged under 25 years, the unemployment rate was 15.5% compared with 8.5% for persons from 25 years. There is also a marked difference between eastern Germany (including Berlin) with an unemployment rate of 15.0% and the western Länder, for which a rate of 7.9% was recorded.

When seasonally adjusted, the number of unemployed persons in the whole of Germany was up by 30,000 compared with the preceding month.

The number of unemployed published this month for the first time is calculated by the Federal Statistical Office following the concept of the International Labour Organization (ILO). According to that definition, which is widely applied on an international level, persons without any employment are considered unemployed if they actively searched a job within the four weeks preceding the survey and if they are able to take up the job in the short term.

Due to the definitional and methodical differences between the coverage of unemployment according to the ILO definition and the statistics of registered unemployed of the Federal Employment Agency, the groups of persons covered are partly different. Experience acquired in pilot surveys shows that, on an annual average, about two thirds of the persons considered unemployed according to the ILO concept indicated in the survey to be registered as unemployed. The other third is looking for employment without having registered with the employment agencies or local institutions; one of the possible reasons is that the relevant persons are not entitled to financial support. On the other hand, about 40% of those who in the survey indicated to be registered as unemployed are not counted as unemployed according to the ILO concept. Possible reasons here are that those persons did not take any concrete steps to search a job in the four weeks preceding the survey or that, in addition to looking for an employment, they performed some job involving just a small number of hours.

The number of unemployed as determined according to the ILO concept in January 2005 (3.99 million) was by about one million below the number of registered unemployed in the same month according to the Social Security Code (5.04 million). According to the results of the telephone survey, about 1.2 million persons were recorded as unemployed who indicated not to be registered as unemployed. On the other hand, 2.2 million respondents who, as indicated by themselves, were registered as unemployed were not unemployed according to the ILO concept. As is shown by experience acquired in the pilot surveys, the resulting difference between unemployment (ILO concept) and registered unemployment (Federal Employment Agency) is larger in winter than on an annual average due to seasonal factors. Also, it is assumed that the statistical “Hartz IV effect” contributed to the difference observed in January this year. While the Hartz IV reform increased the registered unemployment according to the Social Security Code, as observed by the Federal Employment Agency, beyond the level that is usual at this time of the year, the ILO unemployment figure is not influenced by such statistical effects caused by changes in law.

For further information please contact:
For “employment”:
Stephan Lüken,
tel: (+49-611) 75-2016,
e-mail: stephan.lueken@destatis.de

For “unemployment”:
Thomas Riede,
tel: (+49-611) 75-2433,
e-mail: thomas.riede@destatis.de

ILO labour market statistics, monthly results

Activity status	Reference month		Change in January 2005 on December 2004	Change in January 2005 on January 2004
Activity status	January 2005	December 2004	Change in January 2005 on December 2004	Change in January 2005 on January 2004
	Million persons		%
Persons in employment¹⁾	38.50	39.10	–1.5	0.6
Unemployed persons²⁾	3.99	.	.	.
Labour force, total	42.48	.	.	.
	Shares in %		in percentage points
Employment/population ratio³⁾	67.5	68.6	–1.1	0.1

Unemployment rate
Total	9.4	.	.	.
Male	9.6	.	.	.
Female	9.2	.	.	.
Persons aged under 25 years	15.5	.	.	.
Persons aged 25 years and over	8.5	.	.	.
Western Germany	7.9	.	.	.
Eastern Germany (incl. Berlin)	15.0	.	.	.

ILO labour market statistics, time series and seasonally adjusted results ⁴⁾

Year	Month	Persons in employment¹⁾		Unemployed persons²⁾		Unemployment rate
Year	Month	original	seasonally adjusted	original	seasonally adjusted	original	seasonally adjusted
		Million persons				%
2004	January	38.277	38.664	.	3.88	.	9.1
	February	38.328	38.682	.	3.91	.	9.2
	March	38.451	38.719	.	3.91	.	9.2
	April	38.625	38.764	.	3.91	.	9.2
	May	38.709	38.751	.	3.92	.	9.2
	June	38.785	38.792	.	3.90	.	9.1
	July	38.742	38.787	.	3.93	.	9.2
	August	38.780	38.802	.	4.03	.	9.4
	September	39.048	38.813	.	3.93	.	9.2
	October	39.222	38.838	.	4.06	.	9.5
	November	39.249	38.842	.	3.91	.	9.2
	December	39.100	38.866	.	3.94	.	9.2

2005	January	38.496	38.880	3.99	3.97	9.4	9.3

1) Result of the employment estimations as part of national accounts: Persons in employment whose place of residence is in Germany (resident concept).
2) Result of the telephone survey on the ILO activity status: The standard error for the number of unemployed is 2.5%.
3) Share of persons in employment aged between 15 and 64 years in the population of the same age.
4) Census-X12-Arima; previous periods for unemployed persons based in part on provisional estimates. Seasonal adjustment involving larger uncertainties.

Methodological explanations on the ILO labour market statistics of the Federal Statistical Office
The ILO labour market statistics of the Federal Statistical Office implements the internationally recognised and applied criteria to distinguish persons by their activity status. Applying those criteria developed by the International Labour Organization (ILO) in Genevais a precondition for performing supranational and international comparisons of labour markets.
The ILO follows an extensive employment concept. According to that concept, any person at working age is considered employed if he/she worked for remuneration or as self-employed in the reference period, irrespective of the extent. Any person aged between 15 and 74 years is considered unemployed according to the ILO definition concretised by the EU if he/she neither performed any gainful dependent activity in that period nor was self-employed, but actively sought work over the four weeks preceding the survey. The volume of time of the work sought is not relevant. The person must be available for work within two weeks. It is not necessary to involve an employment agency or a local institution in the search.
The unemployment definition based on ILO criteria, which is required for international comparisons, differs from the definition of the number of registered unemployed according to the German Social Security Code (SGB), which is the basis of the figures published by the Federal Employment Agency. For a person to be recorded as unemployed, the SGB requires that the person is registered with an employment agency or a local institution and is looking for an employment of at least 15 hours per week. However, it is possible according to the SGB to perform a job of up to 15 hours for additional earnings despite being registered as unemployed. This means that, on the one hand, the ILO labour market statistics includes unemployed persons who are not counted as registered unemployed by the Federal Employment Agency. On the other hand, there are persons who are considered as registered unemployed in the statistics of the Federal Employment Agency but who are not unemployed according to the ILO definition.
The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed as a percentage of the total labour force (unemployed + persons in employment).
The employment/population ratio is the share of persons in employment aged between 15 and 64 in the population of the same age. That age range is in line with the definitions of the EU employment pact.
The rates and rates of change shown are based on unrounded figures.
The unemployment data available have been obtained through a telephone survey among 30 000 persons selected at random and aged 15 to 74 years according to the ILO definitions. As it is a sample survey, expanding the result to the total population involves a so-called standard error, which has to be taken into account when interpreting the results. It indicates the magnitude to which the “actual“ result may differ, with a given probability, from the result of the sample survey. The standard error for the number of unemployed is shown in the table presenting the data.
As the ILO telephone survey has been newly introduced and results become available only from January 2005, year-on-year comparisons of unemployment data cannot be shown. The seasonally adjusted unemployment figures are based on a provisional estimate and involve larger uncertainties.
Employment data are results of the employment estimations performed as part of national accounting. The monthly figures of the employment estimations have been recalculated in advance, i.e. before the national accounts revision, whose results will be published at the end of April 2005. Detailed information on this issue is contained in the press release of the Federal Statistical Office of 28 February 2005.

For more details please refer to the German version.

Contact:
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presse@destatis.de
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