Press release No.039 / 2008-01-31

December 2007: No slowdown in employment growth

WIESBADEN – Employment growth remained robust in December 2007. According to provisional calculations of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the number of persons in employment in that month was up by 596,000 or 1.5% on December 2006. Compared with the previous month (November 2007), the number of persons in employment was down by 139,000, which was a smaller decline than is usual at this time of the year. In December 2007, there were 40.15 million persons in employment whose place of residence was in Germany.

The relative increase compared with December 2006 (+1.5%) was slightly smaller than the respective increases for September, October and November (+1.6% each on a year earlier). However, examining that trend must take account of the favourable employment trend in December 2006 (basis-related effect).

As is usual at that time of the year, the number of persons in employment decreased in December 2007 on the previous month. Compared with November, it was down by 139,000. That was a markedly smaller decrease than the November-to-December decreases observed on an average of the previous five years (–178,000).

The impression of robust growth is supported by the trend of the seasonally adjusted number of persons in employment, that is upon elimination of the typical seasonal fluctuations. Compared with November, the number was up by 37,000 persons. The growth of the seasonally adjusted number of persons in employment even increased slightly since July.

Based on the labour force survey, Destatis determined a seasonally adjusted 3.35 million unemployed for December 2007. That figure is calculated according to the concept of the International Labour Organization (ILO) and is a provisional estimate. Compared with the same month a year earlier (December 2006), the number of unemployed was down by 530,000 persons or 13.6%. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate – which is harmonised at the EU level and measured as the share of unemployed in the total labour force – amounted to 7.8% and was thus considerably below the level of the corresponding month of the previous year (9.0%).

More results, including the original unemployment data which have not been seasonally adjusted, can be accessed on the internet at http://www.destatis.de, path: Topics --> Labour market --> ILO labour market statistics. Here, you will also find detailed methodological notes on the ILO labour market statistics, the labour force survey and the microcensus.

>>> Brief methodological description

For further information please contact:
For „employment“:
Stephan Lüken,
tel: (+49-611) 75-2016,

For „unemployment“:
Thomas Körner,
tel: (+49-611) 75-4413,

E-mail: arbeitsmarkt@destatis.de

Persons in employment whose place of residence is in Germany ¹⁾
Year	Month	Original values			Seasonally adjusted ²⁾
Year	Month	persons	change on previous month	change on the same month of the previous year	persons	change on previous month
¹⁾ Results of employment accounts as part of national accounting: persons in employment whose place of residence is in Germany (resident concept). The respective time series for persons in employment whose place of work is in Germany (domestic concept) are presented on the Internet at http://www.destatis.de. ²⁾ Seasonal adjustment by Census-X12-Arima.
		in million	in %		in million	in %
2006	November	39.660	0.2	0.9	39.178	0.2
2006	December	39.552	–0.3	1.2	39.247	0.2
2007	January	39.043	–1.3	1.8	39.474	0.6
	February	39.094	0.1	1.9	39.515	0.1
	March	39.241	0.4	1.9	39.575	0.2
	April	39.431	0.5	1.9	39.619	0.1
	May	39.573	0.4	1.7	39.632	0.0
	June	39.618	0.1	1.5	39.632	0.0
	July	39.574	–0.1	1.5	39.656	0.1
	August	39.679	0.3	1.5	39.689	0.1
	September	40.011	0.8	1.6	39.723	0.1
	October	40.217	0.5	1.6	39.757	0.1
	November	40.287	0.2	1.6	39.792	0.1
	December	40.148	–0.3	1.5	39.829	0.1

Unemployed persons whose place of residence is in Germany – seasonally adjusted results ³⁾
Unemployed	December 2007	Previous month		Same month of previous year
Unemployed	December 2007	November 2007	Change	December 2006	Change
³⁾Estimated seasonally adjusted unemployment data based on the labour force survey. Please note the methodical explanations on the following page. Provisional results. ⁴⁾Share of unemployed persons in the total labour force (persons in employment and unemployed) according to the European definition: Persons in employment and unemployed persons in households from 15 years of age or from 15 to 74 years (unemployed) as well as persons in employment excluding persons doing compulsory military service and conscripts on compulsory community service. Sub-groups defined accordingly.
Persons	in million		in %	in million	in %
Total	3.35	3.42	–2.1	3.87	–13.6
Men	1.82	1.86	–2.3	2.10	–13.5
Woman	1.53	1.56	–2.0	1.77	–13.8
15 to 24-year olds	0.54	0.56	–2.3	0.62	–13.0
25 to 74-year olds	2.80	2.86	–2.1	3.25	–13.7
Unemployment rate ⁴⁾	Shares in %		in %	Shares in %	in %
Total	7.8	7.9	–2.0	9.0	–13.7
Men	7.9	8.1	–2.1	9.1	–13.3
Woman	7.6	7.8	–2.0	8.9	–14.2
15 to 24-year olds	10.5	10.5	–1.8	11.8	–10.6
25 to 74-year olds	7.4	7.6	–2.1	8.6	–14.2

Methodological explanations on the ILO labour market statistics from September 2007

The ILO labour market statistics of the Federal Statistical Office provides monthly labour market data according to the labour force concept of the International Labour Organization (ILO). Basing the data on that internationally established and widespread concept ensures the comparability of the German labour market data with those of other countries.

Since January 2005, the ILO labour market statistics has provided not only monthly data of the employment accounts on the employment trend but also monthly data on unemployment in Germany. For a transitional period, the source of the unemployment data was the telephone survey “Labour market in Germany”. The telephone survey was limited to a specific period and was last conducted in reference month April 2007. After a four-month transition period with a smaller range of data published, the time series was put on a new basis on 30 October 2007. The source of unemployment data is now the labour force survey, which in Germanyis integrated in the microcensus. The microcensus is the largest official household survey in Europe and involves compulsory response. It is a multi-purpose survey and is used primarily to provide structural data. The integrated labour force survey is additionally used to obtain longitudinal data as part of the monthly ILO labour market statistics.
The time series from the labour force survey differs considerably from the figures published before. After the changeover, the series shows an average of approximately 800,000 more unemployed persons than does the series before revision. The difference between the results is due to the fact that there are a number of methodical and technical-organisational differences between the telephone survey and the labour force survey, although the programmes of questions are largely identical. For example, there are in part fundamental differences in sample design, survey method and rate of coverage. Also, there are differences in the details of the expansion method as well as differences in the questionnaires in terms of survey technique. The statistical offices are currently performing extensive studies on the causes of those differences.
As the time series available now is not long enough for seasonal adjustment, the seasonally adjusted results will for some time be estimated by using the data of the Federal Employment Agency on the seasonally adjusted monthly number of registered unemployed. A time series of sufficient length for direct seasonal adjustment will be available in 2011 at the earliest because stable monthly data are available only from January 2007.
Before 2005, the labour force survey was conducted annually with a fixed reference week in spring. Therefore, there are no infra-annual data available from the labour force survey for the period before 2005. To obtain a longer monthly series of unemployed, annual results of the labour force survey before 2005 were calculated backwards in combination with the average monthly changes of the years 2005, 2006 and 2007. Based on the monthly data from that model, the seasonally adjusted time series is produced which is published from reference year 1992.
The unadjusted results can be published only from January 2007 because the monthly trends of the years 2005 and 2006 are affected by unusual effects in connection with the introduction of the continuous labour force survey in Germany. The monthly results are adjusted to the quarterly results four months after the end of any quarter.
The monthly unemployment data from the labour force survey are based on the survey of an average of 35,000 persons per month. As the labour force survey is a sample survey, expanding the results to the total population involves a random sampling error which must be taken into account when interpreting the results. The relative standard error indicates the magnitude to which the “actual” result may differ, with a probability that can be indicated, from the result of the sample survey. The simple relative standard error for the monthly total number of unemployed persons is about 2.5%. For the subgroups by sex it is about 3.0% each, for the age group of under 25 years about 5.5% and for the age group from 25 years it is about 3.0%.

For more details please refer to the German version.

Contact:
tel: (+49-611)75-3444
fax: (+49-611)75-3976
presse@destatis.de
www.destatis.de

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Fri: 8am - 3pm
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Germany

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