Press release No.443 / 2008-11-25

Detailed results on the economic performance in the 3rd quarter of 2008

WIESBADEN – As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) already in its first release on 13 November 2008, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2008 was by 0.5% lower – upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustment – than in the second quarter of the year. In the first quarter of 2008, the economic performance was up by 1.4% in a quarter-on-quarter comparison, while it was down by 0.4% in the second quarter.

Gross domestic product, price-adjusted, chain-linked
(figures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects using Census X-12-ARIMA)
Changes on a quarter earlier:

2007				2008
1st quarter	2nd quarter	3rd quarter	4th quarter	1st quarter	2nd quarter	3rd quarter
+0.4%	+0.4%	+0.6%	+0.3%	+1.4%	–0.4%	–0.5%

In a quarter-on-quarter comparison, growth was based only on domestic demand. Seasonally and calendar-adjusted final consumption expenditure of households was up by 0.3%, while government final consumption expenditure rose 0.8% on the second quarter of 2008. A slight increase by 0.1% was recorded for gross fixed capital formation, which is due especially to the trend in capital formation in construction (+0.3%, following –3.4% in the second quarter and +5.5% in the first quarter of 2008). Capital formation in machinery and equipment decreased in the third quarter of 2008 (–0.5%), after it had increased for seven quarters in a row, thus contributing to the economic growth of the past two years. In the reference quarter, enterprises considerably extended their inventories, so that changes in inventories contributed to economic growth. The positive impact of domestic uses, however, was counteracted by a highly negative trend of net exports. In the period from July to September 2008, exports were by 0.4% smaller than in the previous quarter, whereas imports were up 3.8%. In the second quarter of 2008, imports were down by 1.4%.

The following information refers to the year-on-year comparison:

Compared with the third quarter of 2007, the GDP increased a price-adjusted 1.3% in the third quarter of 2008. When calendar-adjusted, the growth rate was 0.8% because the third quarter of 2008 had one working day more than the same quarter a year earlier.

Gross domestic product, price-adjusted, chain-linked (unadjusted figures)
Changes on a year earlier:

2007				2008
1st quarter	2nd quarter	3rd quarter	4th quarter	1st quarter	2nd quarter	3rd quarter
+3.4%	+2.5%	+2.4%	+1.6%	+1.9%	+3.3%	+1.3%

The economic performance in the third quarter of 2008 was achieved by 40.5 million persons in employment, which was an increase of 582,000 persons or 1.5% on a year earlier. The number of employees (domestic concept) rose by 574,000 (+1.6%) to a good 36 million persons. A marked increase in the number of persons in employment was again recorded in financial, real estate, renting and business activities, where 234,000 more persons (+3.4%) were employed than a year earlier. The number of persons employed in industry (including energy) was up by 108,000 (+1.4%). Hence, job growth in industry lost some of its dynamics as in the first and second quarters of 2008 the growth rate was 1.7% each.

Overall labour productivity (price-adjusted gross domestic product per person in employment) in the third quarter of 2008 decreased by 0.1% in a year-on-year comparison. Measured per hour worked, labour productivity was down by 0.2%.

As regards the production side of the price-adjusted gross domestic product, all economic sectors increased their output. However, in many sectors, the growth rates were markedly below those of the first two quarters. Gross value added of industry (including energy) was by 0.9% higher than in the third quarter of 2007. That was the lowest growth rate in that area since the first quarter of 2005. In trade, transport and communications, the economic performance rose by 1.7%, following increases by 2.5% and 3.8% in the first and second quarters, respectively. Gross value added of financial, real estate, renting and business activities was by 1.8% higher than in the same period of the previous year; in the second quarter of 2008, the growth rate was 2.5%. Output was up on a year earlier also in agriculture, hunting and forestry; fishing (+1.4%), in construction (+4.4%) and in other service activities (+1.1%). Altogether, price-adjusted gross value added of all economic sectors rose by 1.5%, following increases by 2.0% in the first quarter and 3.6% in the second quarter of 2008.

As regards the use side of the price-adjusted gross domestic product, capital formation in machinery, equipment and transport equipment increased by 6.9% compared with the third quarter of 2007. Capital formation in construction rose a total 3.7%. While capital formation in residential construction increased by just 1.0%, capital formation in non-residential construction saw a substantial increase by 7.2% on the same period of the previous year. As in the second quarter, capital formation from July to September 2008 regarded especially buildings (+10.5%). Final consumption expenditure was up 0.5% on a year earlier. However, that positive trend is only due to government consumption, which was by 2.8% higher than in the third quarter of 2007. However, final consumption expenditure of households (price-adjusted) decreased by 0.3%, contrary to the quarter-on-quarter comparison. Households spent less especially on food, beverages and tobacco (–1.5%) as well as on goods and services of transport and communications (–3.1%). Main reasons for the latter are a marked decrease in private car purchases and a lower demand for motor fuels. However, consumption expenditure on clothing and footwear (+1.9%), on housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+1.2%) as well as on recreation and culture (+1.9%) were higher than a year earlier.

Foreign demand for German goods and services showed a marked downward trend in the third quarter of 2008. Although German exports increased by 3.9%, they remained far behind the growth rates reached in the previous quarters: In the first quarter of 2008, exports recorded an increase by 5.8%, in the second quarter by 7.3%. Between July and September 2008, imports (+5.7%) rose much more strongly than exports and slightly exceeded the growth rate of the second quarter of 2008 (+5.6%). The resulting negative net exports had a downward effect on economic growth.

At current prices, the gross domestic product and gross national income were up 2.7% each in the third quarter of 2008 compared with a year earlier. Net national income (factor costs), which consists of compensation of employees and property and entrepreneurial income, rose 2.9%. Compensation of employees (+3.6%) showed a much better trend than property and entrepreneurial income, which was up by 1.7% on the third quarter of 2007. Disposable income of households rose slightly more strongly (+2.7%) than final consumption expenditure of households (+2.3%). The savings ratio of households increased from 9.2% in the third quarter of 2007 to 9.8%.

In addition to the first calculation of data for the third quarter of 2008, the results of the gross domestic product published so far for the first and second quarters were revised by up to +0.2 percentage points as new statistical information has become available.

The above and other national accounts data may be accessed via the internet. In addition, more detailed results are published in Fachserie 18 “Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnungen”, Reihe 1.2 “Vierteljahresergebnisse“ and Reihe 1.3 “Saisonbereinigte Vierteljahresergebnisse nach Census X-12-ARIMA und BV4.1“ . Those publications are available for free download from the Publications of the Federal Statistical Office. Reihe 1.2 is also available in an English-language version. A detailed quality report on national accounts is available here.

>>> brief methodological description

Gross domestic product
Price-adjusted, chain-linked
		Unadjusted figures		Figures according to Census X-12-ARIMA
		Unadjusted figures		Seasonally and calendar adjusted		Calendar adjusted		Calendar effect
		2000 = 100	% ¹⁾	2000 = 100	% ²⁾	2000 = 100	% ¹⁾	% ¹⁾
¹⁾ Change on the same quarter of the preceding year in %. ²⁾ Change on the previous quarter in %.
2006	1st quarter	103.02	3.6	104.29	0.8	102.38	2.3	1.3
	2nd quarter	105.22	1.7	105.85	1.5	105.47	3.0	–1.3
	3rd quarter	107.49	2.8	106.59	0.7	107.86	3.2	–0.4
	4th quarter	108.60	3.8	107.71	1.1	108.72	4.1	–0.3
2007	1st quarter	106.56	3.4	108.15	0.4	106.21	3.7	–0.3
	2nd quarter	107.84	2.5	108.53	0.4	108.15	2.5	–0.0
	3rd quarter	110.06	2.4	109.18	0.6	110.49	2.4	–0.0
	4th quarter	110.31	1.6	109.55	0.3	110.56	1.7	–0.1
2008	1st quarter	108.59	1.9	111.07	1.4	109.12	2.7	–0.8
	2nd quarter	111.39	3.3	110.60	–0.4	110.20	1.9	1.4
	3rd quarter	111.52	1.3	110.02	–0.5	111.33	0.8	0.6

Gross domestic product at current prices
		Unadjusted figures		Seasonally and calendar adjusted figures according to Census X-12-ARIMA
		EUR billion	Change in % ¹⁾	EUR billion	Change in % ²⁾
¹⁾ Change on the same quarter of the preceding year in %. ²⁾ Change on the previous quarter in %.
2006	1st quarter	559.00	3.9	568.77	0.8
	2nd quarter	571.40	2.3	578.45	1.7
	3rd quarter	589.20	3.4	583.75	0.9
	4th quarter	601.90	4.4	591.11	1.3
2007	1st quarter	588.20	5.2	599.86	1.5
	2nd quarter	596.80	4.4	604.30	0.7
	3rd quarter	615.10	4.4	609.66	0.9
	4th quarter	622.80	3.5	612.67	0.5
2008	1st quarter	606.70	3.1	623.46	1.8
	2nd quarter	623.70	4.5	622.91	–0.1
	3rd quarter	631.80	2.7	622.77	–0.0

Gross domestic product, gross national income and
net national income (factor costs)
Seasonally and calendar adjusted with Census X-12-ARIMA
	2007			2008
	3rd quarter	4th quarter		1st quarter		2nd quarter		3rd quarter
¹⁾ Only seasonally adjusted.
Change on the previous quarter in %
Use of the gross domestic product
At current prices
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs	0.8	0.5	0.2		0.1		0.9
Government final consumption expenditure	0.5	0.4	1.7		1.4		0.7
Gross fixed capital formation	1.1	2.0	3.8		–1.0		0.6
Machinery and equipment	1.0	3.0	1.9		0.3		–0.7
Construction	1.2	1.2	6.2		–2.5		1.6
Other products	1.5	1.6	–2.4		2.3		1.4
D o m e s t i c u s e s	1.1	0.0	2.2		–0.3		2.0
Exports	1.6	1.1	3.1		0.3		0.2
Imports	2.3	0.1	4.3		–0.2		4.8
G r o s s d o m e s t i c p r o d u c t (GDP)	0.9	0.5	1.8		–0.1		–0.0
Price-adjusted, chain-linked
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs	0.3	–0.2	–0.3		–0.6		0.3
Government final consumption expenditure	0.4	0.1	1.1		0.9		0.8
Gross fixed capital formation	1.1	2.0	3.4		–1.4		0.1
Machinery and equipment	1.5	3.8	1.6		0.5		–0.5
Construction	0.6	0.4	5.5		–3.4		0.3
Other products	2.3	1.8	–1.6		3.5		2.6
D o m e s t i c u s e s	0.9	–0.4	1.6		–1.0		1.3
Exports	1.7	1.3	2.5		–0.2		–0.4
Imports	2.7	–0.3	3.1		–1.4		3.8
G r o s s d o m e s t i c p r o d u c t (GDP)	0.6	0.3	1.4		–0.4		–0.5
memorandum item:
GDP per hour worked by persons in employment ¹⁾	0.3	0.1	0.6		–0.7		–0.3
At current prices
Gross national income ¹⁾	1.6	0.4	1.3		0.9		–0.0
Net national income (factor costs) ¹⁾	2.6	0.6	1.5		0.4		0.3
Compensation of employees ¹⁾	0.2	0.8	1.5		0.7		0.6
Property and entrepreneurial income ¹⁾	7.2	0.3	1.5		–0.0		–0.1
Disposable income of households ¹⁾	0.6	1.3	0.2		0.8		0.5
Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP in percentage points
Domestic uses	0.9	–0.4	1.4		–0.9		1.2
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs	0.2	–0.1	–0.1		–0.3		0.1
Government final consumption expenditure	0.1	0.0	0.2		0.2		0.1
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)	0.2	0.4	0.6		–0.3		0.0
including: GFCF in machinery and equipment	0.1	0.3	0.1		0.0		0.0
GFCF in construction	0.1	0.0	0.5		–0.3		0.0
Changes in inventories, and so on	0.4	–0.7	0.8		–0.4		0.9
Balance of exports and imports (net exports)	–0.3	0.7	0.0		0.5		–1.7

Gross domestic product, gross national income and
net national income (factor costs)
	2007			2008
	3rd quarter	4th quarter		1st quarter		2nd quarter		3rd quarter
Change on the same quarter of the preceding year in %
Use of the gross domestic product
At current prices
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs	1.9	1.2	2.3		2.5		2.3
Government final consumption expenditure	2.6	2.2	3.0		4.2		4.1
Gross fixed capital formation	5.4	4.5	4.8		9.2		6.6
Machinery and equipment	5.9	6.7	5.1		9.9		5.9
Construction	4.9	2.5	4.7		9.4		7.5
Other products	5.4	5.3	3.0		3.1		3.0
D o m e s t i c u s e s	2.6	3.4	2.7		4.2		4.3
Exports	8.5	2.9	6.4		8.1		5.4
Imports	4.8	2.6	5.9		8.2		9.5
G r o s s d o m e s t i c p r o d u c t (GDP)	4.4	3.5	3.1		4.5		2.7
Price-adjusted, chain-linked
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs	0.0	–1.0	–0.0		0.1		–0.3
Government final consumption expenditure	2.3	1.8	1.6		2.5		2.8
Gross fixed capital formation	2.7	2.4	4.1		8.3		5.3
Machinery and equipment	6.5	7.5	6.2		11.2		6.9
Construction	–1.0	–2.8	1.8		6.3		3.7
Other products	9.6	8.8	8.4		6.2		6.5
D o m e s t i c u s e s	1.0	1.2	0.9		2.3		1.9
Exports	8.3	2.8	5.8		7.3		3.9
Imports	5.5	2.2	4.1		5.6		5.7
G r o s s d o m e s t i c p r o d u c t (GDP)	2.4	1.6	1.9		3.3		1.3
memorandum item:
GDP per hour worked by persons in employment	0.8	0.2	1.1		0.4		–0.2
At current prices
Gross national income	4.5	3.5	2.9		4.1		2.7
Net national income (factor costs)	4.1	2.9	3.6		5.1		2.9
Compensation of employees	2.6	2.9	3.5		3.3		3.6
Property and entrepreneurial income	6.8	2.8	3.8		8.7		1.7
Disposable income of households	1.8	1.7	2.7		2.8		2.7
Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP in percentage points
Domestic uses	0.9	1.2	0.8		2.1		1.8
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs	0.0	–0.6	0.0		0.1		–0.1
Government final consumption expenditure	0.4	0.3	0.3		0.4		0.5
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)	0.5	0.5	0.7		1.6		1.0
including: GFCF in machinery and equipment	0.5	0.7	0.4		0.9		0.5
GFCF in construction	–0.1	–0.3	0.2		0.6		0.4
Changes in inventories, and so on	0.0	0.9	–0.2		0.0		0.4
Balance of exports and imports (net exports)	1.5	0.5	1.1		1.2		–0.5

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E-mail: gdp-info@destatis.de

For more details please refer to the German version.

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