Press release No.197 / 2009-05-26

Detailed results of the economic performance in the 1st quarter of 2009

WIESBADEN – As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) already in its first release on 15 May 2009, Germany's economic performance declined against one quarter earlier for the fourth time in a row in the first three months of 2009. The gross domestic product (GDP) was 3.8% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2008, upon adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar effects. From October to December 2008, the German economy had already contracted by 2.2%, and in the second and third quarters of 2008 by 0.5%, respectively.

Gross domestic product, price-adjusted, chain-linked
(figures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects using Census X-12-ARIMA)
Changes on a quarter earlier:

2007				2008				2009
1st quarter	2nd quarter	3rd quarter	4th quarter	1st quarter	2nd quarter	3rd quarter	4th quarter	1st quarter
+0.4%	+0.4%	+0.6%	+0.3%	+1.5%	–0.5%	–0.5%	–2.2%	–3.8%

Compared with the previous quarter, the decline in the German economic performance is mainly due to the development of the balance between exports and imports of goods and services. As in the fourth quarter of 2008, German exports fell much more than German imports in the first three months of this year. While exports declined 9.7 % upon price adjustment, imports were down 5.4% against one quarter earlier so that the balance of exports and imports contributed – 2.2 percentage points to the decline of GDP. The negative economic development in the first quarter was also characterised by investments going down notably (– 7.9%). Capital formation in machinery and equipment, in particular, was much lower than in the last quarter of 2008. Enterprises invested 16.2% less in machinery, equipment and vehicles than in the last quarter of 2008. In contrast, the decline of capital formation in construction was comparatively small with – 2.6%. Inventories were run down considerably in the reporting quarter, thus reducing growth by 0.5 percentage points. Growth was stimulated only by final consumption expenditure of households and by government final consumption expenditure, which were 0.5% and 0.3% higher than in the quarter before.

The following information refers to the year-on-year comparison:
Compared with the first quarter of 2008, GDP decreased a price-adjusted 6.7% in the first quarter of 2009. When calendar-adjusted, the economic performance went down 6.9% as there had been a good half working day more in the reporting quarter than in the first quarter of 2008.

Gross domestic product, price-adjusted, chain-linked (unadjusted figures)
Changes on a year earlier:

2007				2008				2009
1st quarter	2nd quarter	3rd quarter	4th quarter	1st quarter	2nd quarter	3rd quarter	4th quarter	1st quarter
+3.4%	+2.5%	+2.4%	+1.6%	+2.1%	+3.4%	+1.4%	–1.7%	–6.7%

The economic performance was achieved by about 39.9 million persons in employment in the first quarter of 2009, which was an increase by 48 000 persons or 0.1% on a year earlier. The number of unemployed persons (international definition) amounted to just under 3.4 million, accounting for 7.8% of the entire economically active population. It must be taken into account, however, that the impact of the economic crisis on the employment trend was cushioned as cyclical short-term work was increasingly resorted to.

On the production side of the gross domestic product, all economic areas apart from other service activities recorded a worse economic performance than in the first quarter of the year before. The recession in Germany hits industry (including energy) particularly hard. Its price-adjusted gross value added was 20.2% lower than in the first quarter of 2008. Except for the first quarter of 2005, that economic area had made a positive contribution to the economic development from the end of 2003 to mid-2008. Marked declines in real gross value added were recorded also by construction (– 8.9%) and by trade, transport and communications (– 6.4%). The economic performance in financial, real estate, renting and business activities fell 0.9% compared with the first quarter of 2008. The price-adjusted gross value added of other service activities remained unchanged.

The use side of the gross domestic product was characterised by a sharp decrease in price-adjusted exports by 17.2%. As the imports of goods and services were down by just 7.0%, the balance of exports and imports had a massive slowdown effect on the economic trend in the first quarter of 2009 (contribution to growth: –5.5 percentage points). Domestic gross fixed capital formation was by 11.2% smaller than in the first quarter of 2008. This is mainly due to a strong decrease in gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment by 18.6%. In the fourth quarter of 2008, the enterprises had reduced their capital formation in machinery, equipment and vehicles by just 1.7% and before they had always increased it since the third quarter of 2003. Capital formation in construction, too, was considerably down from the same period of the previous year, although the decrease (–7.8%) was smaller than that of capital formation in machinery and equipment. Negative trends were recorded both for capital formation in dwellings (–8.9%) and in other buildings and structures (–6.2% on the first three months of 2008). It should be taken into account here that construction was considerably impaired by the very cold winter.

In contrast to gross fixed capital formation and German exports, price-adjusted final consumption expenditure recorded a slight increase by 0.1% in the reference quarter and even showed a slightly better trend than in the last quarter of the previous year (– 0.0%). Final consumption expenditure of households was marginally down by 0.1% in the first three months of 2009 (following –0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2008) and final consumption expenditure of general government was up by 0.8%. When broken down by purposes, households reduced their expenditure (in price-adjusted terms) on restaurants and hotels (–4.8%), on food, beverages and tobacco (–3.1%), on furnishings and household equipment (–3.0%) as well as on clothing and footwear (–2.5%). However, expenditure on goods and services of transport and communications – including the purchase of private passenger cars – rose by 1.2% (following –4.7% in the fourth quarter and –2.9% in the third quarter of 2008). Price-adjusted expenditure on housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels was up by 2.5%, which was in part due to the cold winter.

At current prices, the gross domestic product was down by 5.1% and the gross national income by 5.3% in the first quarter of 2009 as compared to the first quarter of the previous year. The net national income (factor costs), which consists of compensation of employees and property and entrepreneurial income, shrank by 7.4%, with the two components following a very different development: Compensation of employees increased by 0.9% on a year earlier, whereas property and entrepreneurial income recorded the largest decrease (–20.9%) in any quarter since 1970. The disposable income of households remained unchanged. With a marginal decrease (–0.1%) of the nominal final consumption expenditure, the savings ratio of households was calculated at 15.3%, which was 0.3 percentage points more than a year earlier.

As explained in the first release of 15 May 2009, the gross domestic product results previously published for the year and the four quarters of 2008 were revised, in addition to the first calculation of data for the first quarter of 2009. As a result, the rate of GDP change in the fourth quarter of 2008 was revised downwards by 0.1 percentage points.

The above and other national accounts data may be accessed via the internet. In addition, more detailed results are published in Fachserie 18 “Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnungen”, Reihe 1.2 “Vierteljahresergebnisse“ and Reihe 1.3 “Saisonbereinigte Vierteljahresergebnisse nach Census X-12-ARIMA und BV4.1“ . Those publications are available for free download from the Publications of the Federal Statistical Office. Reihe 1.2 is also available in an English-language version. A detailed quality report on national accounts is available here.

A long time series with quarterly results on the gross domestic product since the first quarter of 1970 is available at the Internet.

>>> brief methodological description

Gross domestic product
Price-adjusted, chain-linked
		Unadjusted figures		Figures according to Census X-12-ARIMA
		Unadjusted figures		Seasonally and calendar adjusted		Calendar adjusted		Calendar effect
		2000 = 100	% ¹⁾	2000 = 100	% ²⁾	2000 = 100	% ¹⁾	% ¹⁾
¹⁾ Change on the same quarter of the preceding year in %. ²⁾ Change on the previous quarter in %.
2007	1st quarter	106.56	3.4	108.15	0.4	106.21	3.7	–0.3
	2nd quarter	107.84	2.5	108.53	0.4	108.15	2.5	–0.0
	3rd quarter	110.06	2.4	109.18	0.6	110.49	2.4	–0.0
	4th quarter	110.31	1.6	109.55	0.3	110.56	1.7	–0.1
2008	1st quarter	108.76	2.1	111.22	1.5	109.29	2.9	–0.8
	2nd quarter	111.47	3.4	110.66	–0.5	110.28	2.0	1.4
	3rd quarter	111.58	1.4	110.06	–0.5	111.39	0.8	0.6
	4th quarter	108.46	–1.7	107.61	–2.2	108.60	–1.8	0.1
2009	1st quarter	101.47	–6.7	103.52	–3.8	101.74	–6.9	0.2

Gross domestic product at current prices
		Unadjusted figures		Seasonally and calendar adjusted figures according to Census X-12-ARIMA
		EUR billion	Change in % ¹⁾	EUR billion	Change in % ²⁾
¹⁾ Change on the same quarter of the preceding year in %. ²⁾ Change on the previous quarter in %.
2007	1st quarter	588.20	5.2	599.86	1.5
	2nd quarter	596.80	4.4	604.30	0.7
	3rd quarter	615.10	4.4	609.66	0.9
	4th quarter	622.80	3.5	612.67	0.5
2008	1st quarter	608.00	3.4	624.66	2.0
	2nd quarter	625.60	4.8	624.69	0.0
	3rd quarter	632.10	2.8	622.96	–0.3
	4th quarter	625.70	0.5	615.11	–1.3
2009	1st quarter	577.10	–5.1	591.46	–3.8

Gross domestic product, gross national income and
net national income (factor costs)
Seasonally and calendar adjusted with Census X-12-ARIMA
	2008				2009
	1st quarter	2nd quarter	3rd quarter	4th quarter	1st quarter
¹⁾ Only seasonally adjusted.
Change on the previous quarter in %
Use of the gross domestic product
At current prices
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs	0.4	0.2	1.0	–0.8	–0.4
Government final consumption expenditure	1.9	1.3	0.0	0.1	2.1
Gross fixed capital formation	3.9	–1.0	0.8	–2.8	–8.6
Machinery and equipment	2.0	0.4	0.3	–5.5	–16.6
Construction	6.2	–2.6	1.2	–1.1	–2.7
Other products	–2.5	2.5	1.1	0.6	–6.0
D o m e s t i c u s e s	2.4	–0.4	1.8	–0.5	–1.9
Exports	3.1	0.3	0.1	–9.1	–11.7
Imports	4.4	–0.6	4.8	–8.4	–8.0
G r o s s d o m e s t i c p r o d u c t (GDP)	2.0	0.0	–0.3	–1.3	–3.8
Price-adjusted, chain-linked
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs	–0.1	–0.5	0.2	–0.3	0.5
Government final consumption expenditure	1.0	0.5	0.1	–0.1	0.3
Gross fixed capital formation	3.4	–1.4	0.2	–2.7	–7.9
Machinery and equipment	1.8	0.6	0.3	–4.9	–16.2
Construction	5.5	–3.5	–0.1	–1.3	–2.6
Other products	–1.6	3.2	2.6	1.7	2.6
D o m e s t i c u s e s	1.8	–1.2	1.4	–0.1	–1.7
Exports	2.5	–0.2	–0.4	–8.1	–9.7
Imports	3.2	–1.8	4.0	–4.1	–5.4
G r o s s d o m e s t i c p r o d u c t (GDP)	1.5	–0.5	–0.5	–2.2	–3.8
memorandum item:
GDP per hour worked by persons in employment	0.8	–0.9	–0.4	–0.9	–1.7
At current prices
Gross national income ¹⁾	1.8	0.8	–0.2	–2.0	–4.0
Net national income (factor costs) ¹⁾	2.1	0.2	–0.0	–2.2	–5.5
Compensation of employees ¹⁾	1.4	0.9	0.8	0.3	–1.1
Property and entrepreneurial income ¹⁾	3.4	–1.1	–1.4	–6.7	–14.4
Disposable income of households ¹⁾	0.3	0.8	0.6	–0.5	–0.9
Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP in percentage points
Domestic uses	1.6	–1.1	1.3	–0.1	–1.7
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs	0.0	–0.3	0.1	–0.1	0.3
Government final consumption expenditure	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)	0.6	–0.3	0.0	–0.5	–1.5
including: GFCF in machinery and equipment	0.1	0.0	0.0	–0.4	–1.3
GFCF in construction	0.5	–0.4	0.0	–0.1	–0.3
Changes in inventories, and so on	0.9	–0.6	1.1	0.6	–0.5
Balance of exports and imports (net exports)	–0.1	0.6	–1.8	–2.2	–2.2

	2008				2009
	1st quarter	2nd quarter	3rd quarter	4th quarter	1st quarter
Gross domestic product, gross national income and net national income (factor costs)
Change on the same quarter of the preceding year in %
Use of the gross domestic product
At current prices
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs	2.5	2.9	2.8	0.8	– 0.1
Government final consumption expenditure	3.2	4.6	3.9	3.1	3.8
Gross fixed capital formation	5.0	9.4	7.0	1.0	– 11.3
Machinery and equipment	5.7	10.6	7.6	– 2.2	– 19.6
Construction	4.6	9.2	7.0	3.9	– 5.6
Other products	2.8	3.0	2.7	1.3	– 1.8
D o m e s t i c u s e s	3.0	4.5	4.3	3.3	– 0.6
Exports	6.4	8.2	5.4	– 5.5	– 19.2
Imports	6.1	8.0	9.4	0.0	– 11.9
G r o s s d o m e s t i c p r o d u c t (GDP)	3.4	4.8	2.8	0.5	– 5.1
Price-adjusted, chain-linked
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs	0.2	0.5	0,2	– 0,5	– 0,1
Government final consumption expenditure	1.5	2.2	1.9	1.4	0.8
Gross fixed capital formation	4.2	8.5	5.5	– 0.3	– 11.2
Machinery and equipment	6.7	11.8	8.4	– 1.7	– 18.6
Construction	1.8	6.1	3.1	0.7	– 7.8
Other products	8.4	5.9	6.2	5.9	10.8
D o m e s t i c u s e s	1.1	2.2	2.0	1.9	– 1.3
Exports	5.9	7.4	3.9	– 5.9	– 17.2
Imports	4.3	5.4	5.7	1.5	– 7.0
G r o s s d o m e s t i c p r o d u c t (GDP)	2.1	3.4	1.4	– 1.7	– 6.7
memorandum item:
GDP per hour worked by persons in employment	1.3	0.3	– 0.3	– 1.3	– 3.9
At current prices
Gross national income	3.4	4.6	2.9	0.3	– 5.3
Net national income (factor costs)	4.3	5.6	2.9	0.1	– 7.4
Compensation of employees	3.4	3.4	3.9	3.2	0.9
Property and entrepreneurial income	5.7	9.7	1.4	– 6.4	– 20.9
Disposable income of households	2.9	3.1	3.2	1.2	0.0
Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP in percentage points
Domestic uses	1.0	2.1	1.9	1.8	–1.2
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs	0.1	0.3	0.1	–0.3	–0.1
Government final consumption expenditure	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.2
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)	0.7	1.6	1.1	–0.1	–1.9
including: GFCF in machinery and equipment	0.5	0.9	0.6	–0.1	–1.3
GFCF in construction	0.2	0.6	0.3	0.1	–0.7
Changes in inventories, and so on	–0.1	–0.2	0.3	2.0	0.6
Balance of exports and imports (net exports)	1.0	1.3	–0.5	–3.4	–5.5

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