Press release No.061 / 2010-02-24

Detailed results on the economic performance in the 4th quarter of 2009

WIESBADEN – As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) already in its first release of 12 February 2010, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2009 stagnated at previous quarter’s level (+0.0%), upon adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar effects. Hence the slight upward trend observed for the economy in the second (+0.4%) and third quarter of 2009 (+0.7%) did not continue.

Gross domestic product, price-adjusted, chain-linked
(figures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects using Census X-12-ARIMA)
Changes on a quarter earlier:

2008				2009
1st quarter	2nd quarter	3rd quarter	4th quarter	1st quarter	2nd quarter	3rd quarter	4th quarter
1.6%	–0.6%	–0.3%	–2.4%	–3.5%	0.4%	0.7%	0.0%

The economic development in the fourth quarter of 2009 was supported only by foreign trade: While exports rose 3.0% on the previous quarter, imports decreased (–1.8%). The resulting balance of exports and imports contributed 2.0 percentage points to the economic development. However, that positive contribution to growth was entirely offset by the negative development of domestic uses, which were down a total 2.1%. Both final consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation turned out to have a downward effect on growth. Government final consumption expenditure decreased by 0.6%, final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs by 1.0%. Gross fixed capital formation in construction was down by 0.5% and in machinery and equipment by even 1.5%. Inventories were reduced in the fourth quarter of 2009 (contribution to growth: –1.2 percentage points), following a considerable increase in inventories in the third quarter of 2009 (contribution to growth: +1.5 percentage points).

The following information refers to the year-on-year comparison:

In contrast to the quarter-on-quarter comparison, the price-adjusted GDP was down on a year earlier: In the fourth quarter of 2009, it was by 1.7% smaller than in the same quarter of the previous year (calendar-adjusted –2.4%). Although the decrease was smaller than in the previous quarters of 2009, the extent of the economic crisis is still obvious.

Gross domestic product, price-adjusted, chain-linked (unadjusted figures)
Changes on a year earlier:

2008				2009
1st quarter	2nd quarter	3rd quarter	4th quarter	1st quarter	2nd quarter	3rd quarter	4th quarter
2.1%	3.4%	1.4%	–1.7%	–6.4%	–7.0%	–4.7%	–1.7%

The economic performance in the fourth quarter of 2009 was achieved by 40.6 million persons in employment, which was a decrease by 156,000 persons or 0.4% on a year earlier.

Overall labour productivity (price-adjusted GDP per person in employment) was down by 1.3% in the fourth quarter of 2009. When measured per hour worked by persons in employment, the decrease in labour productivity was slightly smaller (–1.1%) because, on average, the number of hours worked per person in employment was slightly smaller than in the same quarter of the previous year (–0.1%), although there were two additional calendar days available in the reference quarter. A major reason is that short-time work was made use of and part-time work was extended while, at the same time, full-time employment decreased.

Price-adjusted gross value added of all economic sectors in the fourth quarter of 2009 was by 2.2% smaller than in the fourth quarter of 2008. In industry (including energy), the decrease was largest again (–8.1%), although it was markedly smaller than in the first three quarters of 2009. The economic performance of trade, transport and communications was by 2.7% smaller than in the same period of the previous year, that of financial, real-estate, renting and business activities by 1.1%. By contrast, agriculture, foresty and fishing (+1.1%), other service activities (+1.8%) and construction (+2.9%) achieved positive growth on a year earlier.

On the use side of the gross domestic product, domestic uses – consisting of final consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation – had a slowdown effect on the year-on-year economic development (–2.8%). That decrease is mainly due to a massive slump in real gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment, which was markedly below the level a year earlier for the fifth quarter in a row. In the reference quarter, gross fixed capital formation in machinery, equipment and vehicles was down 17.9% on the fourth quarter of 2008. Gross fixed capital formation in construction, however, seems to have continued its recovery: Capital formation both in residential and non-residential buildings increased on a year earlier (total of +3.3%). An additional negative impact was provided by a marked year-on-year reduction of inventories (contribution to growth: –1.9 percentage points).

In contrast to gross fixed capital formation, final consumption expenditure made an altogether positive contribution to the economic development (+0.5%), compared with a year earlier. Government final consumption expenditure rose 2.6% on the fourth quarter of 2008, while final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs was just slightly below the level of a year earlier (–0.1%).

A positive effect was also provided by the balance of exports and imports, although the global economic crisis impaired foreign demand for German goods and services also in the fourth quarter of 2009: German exports were by 3.8% lower than a year earlier. However, the decrease was markedly smaller than in the first three quarters of 2009 when exports showed year-on-year decreases of 17.1% (January to March), 20.0% (April to June) and 15.2% (July to September). Imports, too, were down again; as the decline (–6.5%) was larger than that of exports, the balance of exports and imports had a positive impact on the economic development (contribution to growth: +1.0 percentage points).

At current prices, the gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2009 was down by 0.6% on a year earlier. The gross national income decreased 0.5% in the reference quarter compared with the fourth quarter of 2008. The net national income (factor costs), which consists of compensation of employees and property and entrepreneurial income, rose 0.3%. While compensation of employees decreased (–0.8%), property and entrepreneurial income in the fourth quarter of 2009 was higher than in the same period of the previous year (+2.9%) for the first time after five successive quarters of negative rates of change. The disposable income of households rose slightly by 0.4%. Nominal final consumption expenditure of households was also up 0.4% on a year earlier. This resulted in a savings ratio of households of 10.0%, which was 0.1 percentage points less than in the fourth quarter of 2008.

In addition to the first calculation of data for the fourth quarter of 2009, the gross domestic product results published so far for the first three quarters of 2009 and for the year of 2009 were revised and corrected where necessary. This did not have any effect on the quarterly rates of change of the price-adjusted GDP. For the year of 2009, the rate of change of the price-adjusted GDP published before (–5.0%) was confirmed. When adjusted for calendar effects, the GDP decrease in 2009 was now calculated at –4.9%.

The above and other national accounts data may be accessed via the internet. In addition, more detailed results are published in Fachserie 18, Series 1.2 “National Accounts Domestic Product, Quarterly results and Series 1.3 “National Accounts -Domestic Product- Seasonally adjusted quarterly results, using Census X-12-ARIMA and BV4.1. A detailed quality report on national accounts is also available.

Gross domestic product
Price-adjusted, chain-linked
		Unadjusted figures		Figures according to Census X-12-ARIMA
		Unadjusted figures		Seasonally and calendar adjusted		Calendar adjusted ¹⁾		Calendar effect
		2000 = 100	% ²⁾	2000 = 100	% ³⁾	2000 = 100	% ²⁾	% ²⁾
¹⁾ For years, the calendar-adjusted values are identical with the seasonally and calendar-adjusted values (except for differences due to rounding). ²⁾ Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year in %. ³⁾ Change on the previous year or quarter in %.
2008		110.26	1.3	110.10	1.0	110.10	1.0	0.3
2009		104.77	–5.0	104.68	–4.9	104.68	–4.9	–0.1
2008	1st quarter	109.00	2.1	111.42	1.6	109.54	2.9	–0.9
	2nd quarter	111.61	3.4	110.79	–0.6	110.48	2.0	1.4
	3rd quarter	111.83	1.4	110.44	–0.3	111.67	0.8	0.5
	4th quarter	108.58	–1.7	107.74	–2.4	108.71	–1.8	0.1
2009	1st quarter	102.01	–6.4	103.95	–3.5	102.22	–6.7	0.3
	2nd quarter	103.79	–7.0	104.41	0.4	104.10	–5.8	–1.3
	3rd quarter	106.52	–4.7	105.17	0.7	106.30	–4.8	0.1
	4th quarter	106.77	–1.7	105.18	0.0	106.09	–2.4	0.8

Gross domestic product at current prices
		Unadjusted figures		Seasonally and calendar adjusted figures according to Census X-12-ARIMA
		Euro billion	Change in % ¹⁾	Euro billion	Change in % ²⁾
¹⁾ Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year in %. ²⁾ Change on the previous year or quarter in %.
2008		2,495.80	2.8	2,492.34	2.5
2009		2,407.20	–3.5	2,404.92	–3.5
2008	1st quarter	609.70	3.4	626.40	2.1
	2nd quarter	625.60	4.8	626.26	–0.0
	3rd quarter	634.40	2.8	625.26	–0.2
	4th quarter	626.10	0.2	614.42	–1.7
2009	1st quarter	579.50	–5.0	593.56	–3.4
	2nd quarter	589.60	–5.8	598.27	0.8
	3rd quarter	616.00	–2.9	606.99	1.5
	4th quarter	622.10	–0.6	606.10	–0.1

Gross domestic product, gross national income and net national income (factor costs)
Seasonally and calendar adjusted with Census X-12-ARIMA
	2009
	1st quarter	2nd quarter	3rd quarter	4th quarter
¹⁾ Only seasonally adjusted.
Change on the previous quarter in %
Use of the gross domestic product
At current prices
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs	–0.0	1.5	–0.7	–0.6
Government final consumption expenditure	2.5	0.8	1.6	–1.1
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)	–8.1	0.5	0.6	–0.4
including: GFCF in machinery and equipment	–18.8	–0.7	0.6	–2.1
GFCF in construction	0.1	1.2	0.6	0.4
D o m e s t i c u s e s	–1.0	–0.7	1.4	–2.7
Exports	–12.3	–1.8	4.0	3.9
Imports	–7.8	–5.9	4.2	–2.3
G r o s s d o m e s t i c p r o d u c t (GDP)	–3.4	0.8	1.5	–0.1
Price-adjusted, chain-linked
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs	0.8	0.9	–1.0	–1.0
Government final consumption expenditure	1.4	0.5	1.2	–0.6
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)	–7.9	0.8	0.9	–0.7
including: GFCF in machinery and equipment	–18.4	–0.5	0.8	–1.5
GFCF in construction	0.2	1.4	0.7	–0.5
D o m e s t i c u s e s	–1.1	–1.3	1.3	–2.1
Exports	–10.4	–0.7	3.4	3.0
Imports	–5.4	–5.1	5.2	–1.8
G r o s s d o m e s t i c p r o d u c t (GDP)	–3.5	0.4	0.7	0.0
memorandum item:
GDP per hour worked by persons in employment ¹⁾	–1.8	0.9	0.6	–0.8
GDP per person in employment	–3.4	0.6	0.8	0.0
At current prices
Gross national income ¹⁾	–3.3	0.0	2.9	0.3
Net national income (factor costs) ¹⁾	–3.8	–0.3	4.0	0.6
Compensation of employees ¹⁾	–0.5	–0.1	0.1	–0.3
Property and entrepreneurial income ¹⁾	–10.5	–0.5	12.6	2.4
Disposable income of households ¹⁾	–0.3	1.4	–0.2	–0.5
Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP in percentage points
Domestic uses	–1.1	–1.3	1.3	–2.0
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs	0.4	0.5	–0.6	–0.6
Government final consumption expenditure	0.3	0.1	0.2	–0.1
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)	–1.5	0.1	0.2	–0.1
including: GFCF in machinery and equipment	–1.5	0.0	0.1	–0.1
GFCF in construction	0.0	0.1	0.1	–0.1
Changes in inventories, and so on	–0.3	–2.0	1.5	–1.2
Balance of exports and imports (net exports)	–2.5	1.8	–0.6	2.0

Gross domestic product, gross national income and net national income (factor costs)
	2009							2009
	1st quarter	2nd quarter		3rd quarter		4th quarter		2009
Change on the same quarter of the preceding year or the previous year in %
Use of the gross domestic product
At current prices
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs	0.1	0.9	0.0		0.4		0.4
Government final consumption expenditure	5.1	4.5	5.8		3.7		4.7
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)	–11.0	–11.4	–8.2		–6.7		–9.3
including: GFCF in machinery and equipment	–21.1	–24.4	–21.9		–19.1		–21.6
GFCF in construction	–3.5	–2.0	1.4		3.9		0.1
D o m e s t i c u s e s	–0.8	–2.4	–1.5		–2.6		–1.8
Exports	–19.2	–23.1	–18.3		–5.6		–16.7
Imports	–12.4	–18.8	–16.8		–10.9		–14.8
G r o s s d o m e s t i c p r o d u c t (GDP)	–5.0	–5.8	–2.9		–0.6		–3.5
Price-adjusted, chain-linked
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs	0.0	0.8	0.2		–0.1		0.2
Government final consumption expenditure	2.9	2.7	3.7		2.6		3.0
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)	–11.3	–11.0	–7.2		–6.2		–8.9
including: GFCF in machinery and equipment	–20.1	–23.4	–20.8		–17.9		–20.5
GFCF in construction	–5.7	–2.9	1.4		3.3		–0.8
D o m e s t i c u s e s	–1.2	–2.7	–1.6		–2.8		–2.1
Exports	–17.1	–20.0	–15.2		–3.8		–14.2
Imports	–7.4	–12.6	–9.3		–6.5		–8.9
G r o s s d o m e s t i c p r o d u c t (GDP)	–6.4	–7.0	–4.7		–1.7		–5.0
memorandum item:
GDP per hour worked by persons in employment	–3.9	–2.2	–1.5		–1.1		–2.2
GDP per person in employment	–6.8	–7.1	–4.5		–1.3		–4.9
At current prices
Gross national income	–5.1	–5.4	–2.8		–0.5		–3.4
Net national income (factor costs)	–6.4	–6.6	–2.6		0.3		–3.8
Compensation of employees	1.1	0.0	–0.5		–0.8		–0.1
Property and entrepreneurial income	–18.7	–18.8	–6.2		2.9		–10.6
Disposable income of households	0.2	0.8	0.2		0.4		0.4
Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP in percentage points
Domestic uses	–1.2	–2.4	–1.5		–2.7		–1.9
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs	0.0	0.4	0.1		–0.1		0.1
Government final consumption expenditure	0.5	0.5	0.7		0.5		0.5
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)	–1.9	–2.2	–1.4		–1.2		–1.7
including: GFCF in machinery and equipment	–1.5	–1.9	–1.6		–1.6		–1.7
GFCF in construction	–0.5	–0.3	0.2		0.3		–0.1
Changes in inventories, and so on	0.2	–1.2	–0.9		–1.9		–0.9
Balance of exports and imports (net exports)	–5.2	–4.6	–3.3		1.0		–3.0

>>> brief methodological description

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