Publication Early estimate of foreign trade in national Accounting – An econometric approach

This paper describes a complementary econometric calculation of exports and imports for national accounting, which uses leading indicators and feeds into the t + 30 GDP flash estimates. The quality of the econometric models is assessed by comparing the estimated values with the foreign trade data available since 2016. This makes it possible to test the quality of the estimates in various business cycles, including the economic slump during the COVID-19 pandemic. The minor deviations suggest that the use of additional data sources may improve the quality of the estimates of goods exports and imports.

Author: Nathalie Rosengart

Article published in "WISTA – Scientific Journal", 2-2021