Publication Moving from GDP flash estimates to GDP nowcasts: First Results of a feasibility study to further accelerate early GDP estimation

The Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Statistisches Bundesamt) is currently conducting a feasibility study to test whether it would be possible to produce an estimate of the German gross domestic product (GDP) as early as t+10 days after the end of the reference quarter. Such an early estimate is called a nowcast. It differs from the t+30 GDP flash estimate in terms of the underlying methodology and the data basis. This article shows the current progress of the feasibility study and describes similarities and differences between the t+10 GDP nowcast and the t+30 GDP flash estimate. In addition, it presents first preliminary results of the feasibility study and outlines potential developments in future phases of the study.

Authors: Xaver Dickopf, Christian Janz, Tanja Mucha

Article published in "WISTA – Scientific Journal", 6-2019