Press release No. 242 of 27 June 2019

WIESBADEN – Population ageing in Germany will continue to increase despite high net immigration and growing birth rates. In the next 20 years, the current age structure will definitely lead to a decrease in the working-age population and to an increase in the number of older people. The future development of demographic factors such as fertility, life expectancy and net immigration will not be able to stop these processes. This is the main result of the 14th coordinated population projection presented by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) at a press conference in Berlin on 27 June 2019.

In 2018, 51.8 million people in Germany were at working age between 20 and 66 years. By 2035, the working-age population will fall by roughly 4 to 6 million, reaching 45.8 to 47.4 million. Then it will stabilise and subsequently decrease to 40 to 46 million by 2060, depending on the level of net immigration.
Without net immigration, the working-age population would decline by roughly 9 million already by 2035.

Older population groups will continue to grow

The number of people aged 67 or over rose by 54% from 10.4 million in 1990 to 15.9 million in 2018. Until 2039, that number will grow by another 5 to 6 million, reaching at least 21 million people, and will then remain rather stable until 2060.

The number of people aged 80 or over will increase from 5.4 million in 2018 to 6.2 million already in 2022 and will then remain at that level until the early 2030s. In the subsequent 20 years, however, it will continuously rise and reach 8.9 to 10.5 million in 2050, depending on the assumed development of life expectancy.

Population will grow at least until 2024 and decline as from 2040 at the latest

For the total population, there is a wider range of possible developments than for the working-age population and for older people. Depending on the assumptions regarding fertility, life expectancy and net immigration, the population in 2018 (83 million) will increase at least until 2024 and decrease as from 2040 at the latest. It is expected that in 2060 there will be between 74 and 83 million people in Germany.

Regional differences will continue to grow until 2060

Assuming a moderate development of fertility, life expectancy and net immigration, the population will be down by 4% by 2060, in the new Länder by 18%. In the city states, however, it will be up by 10%. In contrast to the total population, the working-age population between 20 and 66 years will decrease in all Länder. With the same assumptions, the number of working-age people will decline between 2018 and 2060 by 16% in the western non-city Länder, by 31% in the new Länder and by 4% in the city states.

Methodological notes

Long-term population projections are no forecasts. They provide 'if-then statements' and show how the population and its structure would change under certain assumptions. The 14th coordinated population projection is based on three assumptions each regarding fertility, life expectancy and external migration balance. Nine main variants form the core of the entire calculation system. They illustrate the range of possible developments and show how the population development is influenced by fertility, life expectancy and migration.
The results for 2018 are based on an estimate.

Detailed documents relating to the press conference are available here (only in german).