Press Gross domestic product: detailed results on the economic performance in the 3rd quarter of 2020

Press release No. 465 of 24 November 2020

Gross domestic product, 3rd quarter of 2020
+8.5% on the previous quarter (price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted)
-3.9% on the same quarter a year earlier (price-adjusted)
-4.0% on the same quarter a year earlier (price- and calendar-adjusted) 

WIESBADEN – The gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 8.5% in the third quarter of 2020 compared with the second quarter of 2020 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. Thus, the German economy could offset a large part of the massive decline in the gross domestic product recorded in the second quarter of 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. However, the price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was still 4.0% lower in the third quarter of 2020 thanin the fourth quarter of 2019, that is the quarter before the global coronavirus crisis. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that the increase of the gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2020 was slightly stronger than reported in the first release of 30 October 2020 (+8.2%).

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Gross domestic product, price-adjusted (figures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects using X13)
Changes on a quarter earlier in percent:
20192020
1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr
0.6-0.50.30.0-1.9-9.88.5

Catch-up effects regarding consumption, capital formation in machinery and equipment and foreign trade

Due to the massive decline observed in almost all use areas in the second quarter of 2020, two-digit growth rates were recorded in the price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted results of the third quarter of 2020 in some areas. Increasing by 10.8% on the previous quarter, final consumption expenditure of households contributed especially to growth in the third quarter of 2020. General government final consumption expenditure again rose by 0.8% on the preceding quarter, after a 2.2% increase in the second quarter. General government consumption thus stabilised economic growth during the first three quarters of the year. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment was up 16.0%. However, gross fixed capital formation in construction did not contribute to growth; it rather declined by 2.0% on the previous quarter.
An increase was also recorded in trade with foreign countries. In the third quarter of 2020, exports of goods and services were up 18.1% compared with the second quarter of 2020, after price-, seasonal- and calendar-adjustment. Imports also rose markedly by 9.1%.

Catch-up effects regarding gross value added in almost all economic sectors

After a massive drop in the second quarter of 2020, price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted gross value added increased again markedly in the third quarter of 2020 compared with the previous quarter. Above-average increases in gross value added were recorded for manufacturing (+14.0%), trade, transport, accommodation and food services (+13.8%) and public services, education, health (+9.5%). In the third quarter of 2020, gross value added dropped only in construction by 4.7%, quarter on quarter.

Gross domestic product markedly down year on year

The gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2020 was down a price-adjusted 3.9% on the third quarter of 2019 (price- and calendar-adjusted: -4.0%).

Gross domestic product, price-adjusted
Changes on a year earlier in percent:
20192020
1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr
1.0-0.31.20.2-1.7-11.3-3.9

Domestic and foreign demand substantially below previous year’s level

Domestic demand continued to be far lower than in the previous year. Household final consumption expenditure declined by 3.7% and gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment by 9.8% on the third quarter of 2019. Gross fixed capital formation in construction and capital formation in other fixed assets, which includes expenditure on research and development, were also down (-0.7% each). Only government final consumption expenditure was up 4.3% compared with the third quarter of 2019. Domestic uses as a whole declined by 3.9% on a year earlier.

Foreign demand, too, was far lower than over the same period a year earlier. Exports of goods and services fell by a price-adjusted 9.1% in the third quarter of 2020 year on year. Imports declined by 9.8% in the same period.

Gross value added markedly down in all economic sectors compared with a year earlier

On the production side of the gross domestic product, price-adjusted gross value added was lower in all economic sectors in the third quarter of 2020 compared with a year earlier. The largest decline was recorded in manufacturing with a 10.8% drop in gross value added. A substantial decline was also observed in business services (-8.4%), trade, transport, accommodation and food services (-3.4%) and construction (-2.6%). Total gross value added was down 4.5% year on year.

Employment continues to decline

The coronavirus crisis also has a considerable effect on the labour market. The economic performance in the third quarter of 2020 was achieved by roughly 44.7 million persons in employment whose place of employment was in Germany. This was a decrease of 654,000, or 1.4%, on a year earlier (see press release no. 457/20 of 17 November 2020). A similar decline had been recorded in the second quarter of 2020 (-1.3%). Before that, the number of persons in employment last declined in the first quarter of 2010 due to the financial and economic crisis. It should be noted that short-time work does not affect the employment figures because short-time workers still count as persons in employment.
However, short-time work in the third quarter of 2020 had a substantial effect on the average number of hours worked per person in employment. The latter decreased markedly by 2.6% compared with a year earlier, according to first provisional calculations of the Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Employment Agency. The labour volume of the overall economy, which is the total number of hours worked by all persons in employment, declined even more sharply by 4.0% over the same period.
Overall labour productivity (price-adjusted GDP per hour worked by persons in employment) rose slightly by 0.1% on the same quarter of the previous year, according to provisional calculations. However, labour productivity per person in employment was down 2.5% compared with the third quarter of 2019.

Stable incomes and consumer reticence lead to increase of savings ratio

At current prices, both the GDP and the gross national income were down 3.1% in the third quarter of 2020 compared with a year earlier. The decline in the net national income at factor cost was slightly less pronounced (-2.8%). According to first provisional calculations, the compensation of employees was down by just 0.7% year on year, while property and entrepreneurial income fell sharply by 7.8%. On average, gross wages and salaries per employee fell by 0.4%, while net wages and salaries rose slightly by 0.5%. The disposable income of households was somewhat higher (+0.7%) in the third quarter than a year earlier. Household final consumption expenditure at current prices, however, showed a decrease of 4.0%. As in the previous quarter, the relatively stable incomes, on the one hand, and consumer reticence, on the other, resulted in a substantial rise in household saving. According to provisional calculations, the savings ratio was 13.5% in the third quarter of 2020.

International and European comparison

A European comparison shows that many Member States of the European Union (EU) recorded a stronger growth on the previous quarter than Germany in the third quarter of 2020, while their economic downturn had also been greater in the second quarter. The largest quarter-on-quarter rise of the gross domestic product after adjustment for price-, seasonal and calendar variations was recorded in France (+18.2%). Comparable catch-up effects can be observed in Italy (+16.1%) and Spain (+16.7%). Based on provisional calculations, Eurostat reported that GDP growth in the EU as a whole amounted to 11.6% compared with the previous quarter. The United States also recorded a large increase of their gross domestic product (+7.4%, converted figure) on the second quarter of 2020. GDP growth as published by the People's Republic of China amounted to 2.7% in the third quarter.

However, the gross domestic product was down from the previous year also in most other countries in the third quarter of 2020. Spain recorded the largest year-on-year decline (-8.7%) of all the EU Member States for which data is already available. According to the latest figures, the economies of France (-4.3%) and Italy (-4.7%) also shrank considerably. For the whole EU, Eurostat released a preliminary result of -4.3% for the third quarter of 2020. The United States also recorded a strong decline of their gross domestic product (-2.9%, converted figure) compared with the third quarter of 2019. In contrast, year-on-year GDP growth as published by the People's Republic of China amounted to 4.9% in the third quarter.

 

Gross domestic product, price-adjusted, 3rd quarter of 2020
Percent:
 USAChinaEUFranceItalySpainGermany
Change on the previous quarter (seasonally and calendar adjusted)7.42.711.618.216.116.78.5
Percentage change on the previous year-2.94.9-4.3-4.3-4.7-8.7-3.9

For a detailed comparison of the EU Member States’ growth rates please refer to our web page “Europe in figures”.

Revision of previous results and methodological notes

Starting with the 2nd quarter of 2020, the Federal Statistical Office released the GDP for the first time as early as 30 days after the end of the quarter, that is, about two weeks earlier than in the past. The earlier availability of the results, however, requires a higher proportion of estimates. In addition, the greater uncertainties caused by the coronavirus pandemic may lead to larger revisions than usual. In addition to calculating the detailed results, the Federal Statistical Office also revised the gross domestic product figures for the third quarter of 2020. Taking into account the statistical information that became available after the first release of 30 October 2020, this resulted in an upwards revision of the gross domestic product by 0.3 percentage points after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment and by 0.2% after price adjustment.



Gross domestic product
 Unadjusted figuresFigures according to X13
price-adjusted
At current pricesPrice-adjustedSeasonally and
calendar-adjusted
Calendar-
adjusted
EUR billion% 12015 = 100% 12015 = 100% 2% 1 3
1 Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year in %.
2 Change on the previous year or quarter in %.
3 As for years. the calendar-adjusted values equal the seasonally and calendar-adjusted values (except for differences due to rounding).
qtr = quarter
20183,356.413.0106.221.3106.361.31.3
20193,449.052.8106.810.6106.990.60.6
20181st qtr821.153.0105.261.5106.07-0.22.2
2nd qtr831.074.0105.672.4106.570.52.0
3rd qtr839.802.2106.420.7106.22-0.30.7
4th qtr864.392.7107.540.5106.580.30.3
20191st qtr845.823.0106.361.0107.230.61.1
2nd qtr846.941.9105.36-0.3106.69-0.50.1
3rd qtr870.153.6107.741.2107.020.30.7
4th qtr886.142.5107.790.2107.000.00.4
20201st qtr851.810.7104.56-1.7104.97-1.9-2.1
2nd qtr768.77-9.293.47-11.394.69-9.8-11.3
3rd qtr842.97-3.1103.52-3.9102.728.5-4.0

Use of the gross domestic product
Unadjusted figures 
 20192020
year3rd qtr4 th qtr1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr
At current prices
EUR bn
Consumption expenditure2,511.407 633.049 653.305 616.168 580.895 624.242
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs1,806.871 459.460 462.820 436.433 396.532 440.853
Government final consumption expenditure 704.536 173.589 190.485 179.735 184.363 183.389
Gross capital formation 737.712 190.266 183.541 183.431 156.426 168.048
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) 747.986 192.392 195.246 174.989 179.615 187.351
GFCF in construction 373.695 101.239 91.498 92.423 100.618 100.995
GFCF in machinery and equipment 240.139 58.298 65.945 51.279 46.683 53.287
GFCF in other products 134.152 32.855 37.803 31.287 32.314 33.069
Domestic uses3,249.119 823.315 836.846 799.599 737.321 792.290
Exports1,617.360 405.139 406.556 394.051 309.214 365.033
Imports1,417.429 358.304 357.262 341.840 277.765 314.353
Gross domestic product (GDP)3,449.050 870.150 886.140 851.810 768.770 842.970
Price-adjusted, change on the same quarter of the preceding year in %
Consumption expenditure1.92.61.6-0.2-8.0-1.5
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs1.62.21.0-1.4-13.0-3.7
Government final consumption expenditure2.73.63.22.94.84.3
Gross capital formation-0.9-4.5-4.5-3.2-9.2-12.1
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)2.53.20.4-0.2-7.0-3.4
GFCF in construction3.84.12.26.11.3-0.7
GFCF in machinery and equipment0.51.7-2.7-9.2-23.6-9.8
GFCF in other products2.72.92.6-1.1-1.4-0.7
Domestic uses1.20.90.2-0.9-8.3-3.9
Exports1.02.70.8-3.2-22.4-9.1
Imports2.62.00.9-1.6-17.2-9.8
Gross domestic product (GDP)0.61.20.2-1.7-11.3-3.9
memorandum item:
GDP per person in employment-0.30.5-0.4-2.0-10.1-2.5
GDP per hour worked by persons in employment0.00.10.5-0.1-2.60.1
Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP in % points
Consumption expenditure1.41.91.2-0.1-5.9-1.1
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs0.81.20.5-0.7-6.8-2.0
Government final consumption expenditure0.50.70.70.61.00.9
Gross capital formation-0.2-1.0-1.0-0.7-1.9-2.7
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)0.50.70.10.0-1.6-0.8
GFCF in construction0.40.50.20.60.2-0.1
GFCF in machinery and equipment0.00.1-0.2-0.6-1.7-0.7
GFCF in other products0.10.10.10.0-0.10.0
Changes in inventories and so on-0.7-1.7-1.1-0.7-0.4-1.9
Domestic uses1.20.90.2-0.8-7.8-3.7
Balance of exports and imports (net exports)-0.60.40.0-0.9-3.5-0.2

 

Use of the gross domestic product
Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures using X13
 20192020
3rd qtr4th qtr1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr
1 Only seasonally adjusted.
qtr = quarter
At current prices
EUR bn
Consumption expenditure 631.622 634.858 629.089 587.492 623.064
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs 453.873 455.441 446.512 398.693 435.453
Government final consumption expenditure 177.749 179.417 182.577 188.799 187.611
Gross capital formation 181.363 185.146 183.951 163.247 160.347
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) 188.201 188.882 189.119 177.320 182.557
GFCF in construction 94.007 95.146 100.781 96.891 93.545
GFCF in machinery and equipment 60.414 59.452 55.388 47.155 54.997
GFCF in other products 33.780 34.284 32.950 33.274 34.015
Domestic uses 812.985 820.004 813.040 750.739 783.411
Exports 407.128 407.369 393.057 310.606 365.861
Imports 353.618 355.038 345.967 281.558 310.586
Gross domestic product (GDP) 866.495 872.335 860.130 779.787 838.686
Price-adjusted, change on the previous quarter in %
Consumption expenditure0.60.1-1.4-7.37.6
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs0.30.1-2.3-11.110.8
Government final consumption expenditure1.40.30.82.20.8
Gross capital formation-3.40.7-0.5-7.1-5.4
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)-0.1-0.2-0.4-6.63.6
GFCF in construction0.30.45.1-4.3-2.0
GFCF in machinery and equipment-1.4-2.0-7.0-15.116.0
GFCF in other products1.21.1-4.10.61.9
Domestic uses-0.30.3-1.2-7.24.7
Exports1.3-0.3-3.3-20.518.1
Imports0.00.3-1.9-15.99.1
Gross domestic product (GDP)0.30.0-1.9-9.88.5
memorandum item: 
GDP per person in employment0.2-0.1-1.9-8.58.6
GDP per hour worked by persons in employment 1-0.20.6-0.6-2.62.8
Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP
in % points
Consumption expenditure0.40.1-1.0-5.45.8
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs0.10.0-1.2-5.85.6
Government final consumption expenditure0.30.10.20.50.2
Gross capital formation-0.70.2-0.1-1.5-1.2
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)0.0-0.1-0.1-1.50.8
GFCF in construction0.00.10.6-0.5-0.2
GFCF in machinery and equipment-0.1-0.1-0.5-1.01.0
GFCF in other products0.10.0-0.20.00.1
Changes in inventories and so on-0.70.20.0-0.1-2.0
Domestic uses-0.30.2-1.1-6.94.6
Balance of exports and imports (net exports)0.6-0.3-0.8-2.93.9

  

Gross value added by economic sector
 20192020
year3rd qtr4th qtr1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr
At current prices
EUR bn
Agriculture, forestry and fishing24.8966.5275.8405.7805.8585.264
Industry, excluding construction754.225186.808189.727183.505150.305169.958
including:
Manufacturing659.182165.392164.579157.402128.865148.028
Construction166.80044.31647.85338.63144.71145.980
Trade, transport, accommodation and food services500.832127.638128.398118.281108.999125.326
Information and communication153.18339.16939.50039.72935.55539.976
Financial and insurance activities116.89529.29929.25629.20729.00429.107
Real estate activities327.24882.72082.24083.68281.74084.967
Business services361.30592.76092.01890.36775.39486.406
Public services, education, health581.558144.193154.504149.259136.316148.866
Other services119.21530.37930.14429.72323.91829.239
Gross value added, total3,106.157783.809799.480768.164691.800765.089
Price-adjusted, change on the same quarter of the preceding year in %
Agriculture, forestry and fishing3.74.63.40.1-0.9-0.8
Industry, excluding construction-3.6-2.9-4.3-5.9-21.2-10.3
including:
Manufacturing-3.5-2.2-4.5-6.1-22.6-10.8
Construction3.54.71.47.02.7-2.6
Trade, transport, accommodation and food services2.13.41.7-0.2-14.5-3.4
Information and communication3.84.22.80.8-2.8-0.8
Financial and insurance activities2.03.61.90.9-0.5-1.0
Real estate activities1.01.21.50.8-1.3-0.7
Business services0.91.00.7-1.7-13.5-8.4
Public services, education, health1.61.91.50.0-8.3-0.1
Other services1.11.60.7-2.3-20.3-6.3
Gross value added, total0.41.10.0-1.4-11.6-4.5

 

Gross value added by economic sector
Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures using X13
 20192020
year3rd qtr4th qtr1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr
Agriculture, forestry and fishing6.2916.0965.9245.6955.0696.291
Industry, excluding construction188.039189.429182.356151.660170.808188.039
Manufacturing164.828165.129158.68128.928147.003164.828
Construction42.35043.18445.99745.02343.77942.350
Trade, transport, accommodation and food services126.118126.489124.630106.793123.676126.118
Information and communication38.57239.17238.57137.63439.38738.572
Financial and insurance activities29.33829.29229.16829.00329.14429.338
Real estate activities82.08283.02283.06982.24684.34382.082
Business services90.62991.33589.44578.77784.41090.629
Public services, education, health146.268148.295148.841140.755150.926146.268
Other services29.93430.08929.46824.55928.81029.934
Gross value added, total779.621786.403777.469702.145760.352779.621
Agriculture, forestry and fishing0.60.3-1.5-0.40.80.6
Industry, excluding construction-0.8-0.4-3.8-16.812.3-0.8
Manufacturing-0.7-0.8-3.8-18.314.0-0.7
Construction1.00.14.8-3.1-4.71.0
Trade, transport, accommodation and food services0.70.0-1.2-14.213.80.7
Information and communication1.10.7-1.7-3.03.31.1
Financial and insurance activities0.7-0.5-0.5-0.20.20.7
Real estate activities0.30.40.0-2.00.90.3
Business services0.20.1-1.9-12.06.10.2
Public services, education, health0.60.3-0.9-8.29.50.6
Other services0.1-0.1-2.7-18.117.80.1
Gross value added, total0.20.0-1.5-10.48.00.2
Distribution of gross national income
20192020
year3rd qtr4th qtr1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr
At current prices
EUR bn
Gross national income3,542.818 895.133 917.979 879.092 781.853 867.201
Net national income (factor costs)2,564.131 648.848 672.117 634.814 561.699 630.480
Compensation of employees1,845.938 457.625 504.284 445.142 437.215 454.215
Property and entrepreneurial income 718.193 191.223 167.833 189.672 124.484 176.265
Gross wages and salaries of employees1,521.633 378.137 416.612 365.742 355.403 372.916
Net wages and salaries of employees1,020.306 259.149 278.439 246.079 234.568 257.899
memorandum item:
Disposable income of households1,969.815 491.940 497.123 508.101 481.971 495.570
Savings ratio (in %) 10.9 9.2 9.7 16.4 20.1 13.5
Price-adjusted, change on the same quarter of the preceding year in %
Gross national income2.83.52.30.8-8.8-3.1
Net national income (factor costs)2.23.11.71.0-8.6-2.8
Compensation of employees4.24.53.53.0-3.2-0.7
Property and entrepreneurial income-2.70.1-3.4-3.4-23.5-7.8
Gross wages and salaries of employees4.14.53.32.9-4.3-1.4
Net wages and salaries of employees4.65.13.63.0-3.8-0.5
memorandum item:
Disposable income of households3.03.72.62.7-0.90.7

Visualised national accounts

The gross domestic product also forms part of the “Crisis Monitor“ (www.destatis.de/krisenmonitor), by means of which the Federal Statistical Office compares the development of major short-term indicators in the corona crisis and the financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009. The Crisis Monitor complements the „Corona statistics“ (www.destatis.de/corona), which has provided statistical information on the economic and social consequences of the corona pandemic. Visualised updated results are also available in our interactive national accounts dashboard (www.destatis.de/ vgr-dashboard).

More information
More information on the quality of the GDP early estimate and on why the Federal Statistical Office for the first time released the more rapid calculation of the GDP just now during the coronavirus pandemic is given in our podcast at www.destatis.de --> Themen --> Wirtschaft --> Volkswirtschaftliche-Gesamtrechnungen-Inlandsprodukt --> Aktuelles. For an English-language text version please go to www.destatis.de --> Themes --> Economy --> National accounts, domestic product --> Current news.

More detailed results have been published in Fachserie 18 “National Accounts“, Series 1.2 “Quarterly results“ and Series 1.3„Seasonally adjusted quarterly results using X13“.

A long time series containing quarterly results of the gross domestic product since the first quarter of 1970 is available here.

The above and other current national accounting results are available in the GENESIS-Online database. (81000)

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