Press release No. 472 of 27 November 2020
WIESBADEN – According to provisional results, at least 78,346 people died in Germany in October 2020. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that this was 4%, or 2,777 people, more than the number of people who died in October on average across the years 2016 to 2019.
Mortality figures above average since second half of October
In the first half of October, the number of deaths was around the average of the previous four years. However, the number of people who died and who had had laboratory confirmed COVID-19 disease rose from week to week. In Week 44 (26 October to 1 November), a total 687 COVID-19 deaths were reported to the Robert Koch Institute - that is 609 more cases than four weeks before. Altogether, 18,030 deaths have so far been reported for Week 44 - this is 5%, or 849 cases, more than the average across the years 2016 to 2019. Already in the preceding week (Week 43; 19 to 25 October), death figures were by 6%, or 1,077 cases, above the average.
Deaths rise above all in the age group of those aged 80 or over
The above-average mortality figures for October 2020 are almost entirely due to an increase in deaths in the age group of people aged 80 or over (+3,974 cases or +9% above the average of the years 2016 to 2019). In contrast to that, the mortality of those under the age of 80 went down (-1,197 cases or -4%). Accordingto RKI figures, COVID-19 deaths occur much more often among people aged 80 or over.
Looking over the longer term, the age structure of the population has changed in the past years. From 2015 to 2019, the number of those aged 80 or over rose from 4,7 to 5,7 million. Apart from the rising number of COVID-19 deaths, such shifts in the age structure of the population can contribute to above-average death figures.
| Month | Total number in 2020 | Difference from Ø 2016-2019 | COVID-19 deaths | Relative difference between total in 2020 and ... | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ø 2016-2019 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | ||||
| number | percent | |||||||
| Sources: total death figures: Federal Statistical Office, COVID-19 deaths: Robert Koch Institute (as at 26 November 2020) | ||||||||
| January | 85,353 | -1,610 | - | -2 | +4 | -11 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 79,961 | -3,558 | - | -4 | +4 | -12 | -7 | -1 |
| March | 87,407 | -2,704 | 1,118 | -3 | +4 | +5 | -18 | +1 |
| April | 83,789 | +7,422 | 6,040 | +10 | +11 | +14 | +5 | +8 |
| May | 75,706 | +575 | 1,558 | +1 | +2 | 0 | +1 | 0 |
| June | 72,051 | +1,641 | 302 | +2 | +4 | +3 | +4 | -2 |
| July | 73,648 | -368 | 131 | 0 | +2 | +3 | -3 | -4 |
| August | 78,432 | +4,783 | 143 | +6 | +10 | +10 | 0 | +7 |
| September | 73,639 | +3,850 | 196 | +6 | +7 | +6 | +6 | +4 |
| October | 78,346 | +2,777 | 1,312 | +4 | +3 | +4 | +6 | +2 |
| January to October | 788,332 | +12,807 | 10,800 | +2 | +5 | +2 | -1 | +1 |
High to very high excess mortality in other European countries
The EuroMOMO network for mortality monitoring currently reports very high excess mortality for Italy and Slovenia for Week 44. High excess mortality is reported for the France, Netherlands, Switzerland, Spain and Wales. For other European countries, EuroMOMO recorded not more than moderate excess mortality in that week.
The Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurosta) reports that nearly 170,000 additional deaths were recorded in the entire European Union from March to June compared with the average of the years 2016 to 2019. In the second half of 2020, a new phase with markedly higher death figures is emerging.
Methodological notes on the mortality figures for Germany:
It is not yet possible to assess what impact the development of death figures to date will have on the entire year of 2020. The development in all of 2020 will have to be considered for a final assessment of temporary excess mortality. In addition, the number of deaths has to be placed in relation to the population to consider, for instance, the ageing process of the population in an adequate manner.
Based on the ad-hoc evaluation "Sterbefälle – Fallzahlen nach Tagen, Wochen, Monaten, Altersgruppen, Geschlecht und Bundesländern für Deutschland 2016 bis 2020" (Deaths – Number of cases by day, week, month, age group and Land for Germany, 2016 to 2020), users can carry out their own evaluations of how death figures developed over the year. First provisional data are provided for 2020. The provisional data are mere counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out.
Due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the behaviour of registrar’s offices submitting data for official statistics, up-to-date information on the number of deaths can be provided with a delay of about four weeks. The results available for 2020 will increase slightly on account of late reporting.
The provisional mortality figures refer to the date of death, not the date on which a death was registered. As the reported COVID-19 deaths are also published by day of death by the RKI, the figures can be compared over time with the provisional total death figures.
More information:
For more information on the ad-hoc evaluation of day-to-day mortality figures please refer to the theme page "Deaths, life expectancy", the podcast "Sterbefallzahlen und Übersterblichkeit während der Corona-Pandemie” and the "Corona statistics" webpage of the Federal Statistical Office.
