Press release No. 481 of 4 December 2020
October 2020 (provisional): new orders in manufacturing
+2.9% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
+1.8% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)
September 2020 (revised): new orders in manufacturing
+1.1% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-1.1% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)
WIESBADEN – According to provisional results of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), real (price adjusted) new orders increased by a seasonally and calendar adjusted 2.9% in October 2020 compared with September 2020. Compared with October 2019, the increase in calendar adjusted new orders amounted to +1.8%. Excluding major orders, real new orders in manufacturing (seasonally and calendar adjusted) were 1.7% higher than in the previous month.
Compared with February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the corona pandemic in Germany, new orders in October 2020 were 0.8% higher in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms. In the largest branch of manufacturing, the automotive industry, new orders still increased in October 2020 (+1.0% on the previous month) and were 6.0% above the pre-crisis level of February 2020.
Domestic orders increased by 2.4% and foreign orders increased by 3.2% in October 2020 on the previous month. New orders from the euro area went up 0.5%, and new orders from other countries increased by 4.8% compared with September 2020.
In October 2020, the manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders increase by 2.3% compared with September 2020. The manufacturers of capital goods saw an increase of 3.8% on the previous month. Regarding consumer goods, new orders fell 2.2%.
For September 2020, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in an increase of 1.1% compared with August 2020 (provisional: +0.5%). The reason was late reporting, for instance, on major orders in the manufacture of air and spacecraft.
Turnover 4.0% (seasonally adjusted) on the previous month
According to provisional figures, real turnover in manufacturing (seasonally and calendar adjusted) stood at +4.0% in October 2020, compared to the previous month. Compared with February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the corona pandemic in Germany, turnover in October 2020 was 4.6% lower in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms. For September 2020, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in an increase of 1.7% compared with August 2020 (provisional: +1.1).
Turnover in the automotive industry increased by 9.5% in October 2020 from the previous month and was 1.7% higher than in February 2020.
More information on industry turnover in other EU Member States is provided in Eurostat’s database. Germany is among the first countries to provide Eurostat with these monthly data.
Methodological notes
The differing comparative periods must be taken into account in all press releases on short-term indicators. Short-term economic monitoring focuses on comparisons with the previous month or previous quarter. These reflect economic trends. A comparison with the previous year is intended to offer a long-term comparison of levels and is not subject to seasonal fluctuations. During the current coronavirus crisis, the strong decreases especially in March/April 2020 and the slowly emerging recovery have produced highly different results for the comparison with the previous month/previous quarter and the comparison with the previous year. Both of the two perspectives are important: what is the short-term economic trend compared with the previous month/previous quarter, and how far has the catching-up process gone compared with the previous year’s level? In order to provide also a direct comparison with the pre-crisis level, all press releases on short-term indicators available in seasonally adjusted form will from now on include a comparison with February 2020 or the 4th quarter of 2019
The data on new orders and turnover are based on the volume index of manufacturing, seasonally and calendar adjusted by means of X13 JDemetra+. (The underlying mathematical-statistical method is not fundamentally different from the previously applied method X-12-ARIMA.)
New orders and turnover are covered and evaluated in accordance with the Classification of Economic Activities, 2008 edition (WZ 2008). New orders are covered only in selected economic branches of manufacturing..
Detailed data and long time series are available from the GENESIS-Online database (indices of new orders 42151-0004, indices of new orders excluding major orders 42151-0008 and turnover indices 42152-004).
Crisis Monitor enables comparison between corona crisis and financial/economic crisis
The index of new orders is also part of the “Crisis Monitor“ (www.destatis.de/krisenmonitor), by means of which the Federal Statistical Office compares the development of major short-term indicators in the corona crisis and the financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009. The “Crisis Monitor” complements the “Corona statistics“ webpage, which has provided statistical information on the economic and social consequences of the corona pandemic since early April:
German EU Council Presidency
The Federal Statistical Office will organise the meetings of the Council Working Party on Statistics to be held during Germany’s EU Council Presidency under the chairmanship of its President Dr. Georg Thiel. Information on our activities during the Presidency of the Council of the EU is provided at destatis.de/eu2020.
European statistics are available under „Europe in figures“ on our website at www.destatis.de.
