Press release No. 007 of 7 January 2021
November 2020 (provisional): new orders in manufacturing
+2.3% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
+6.3% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)
October 2020 (revised): new orders in manufacturing
+3.3% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
+2.3% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)
WIESBADEN – According to provisional results of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), real (price adjusted) new orders increased by a seasonally and calendar adjusted 2.3% in November 2020 compared with October 2020. Compared with November 2019, the increase in calendar adjusted new orders amounted to +6.3%. Excluding major orders, real new orders in manufacturing (seasonally and calendar adjusted) were 1.6% higher than in the previous month.
Compared with February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the corona pandemic in Germany, new orders in November 2020 were 4.0% higher in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms.
Domestic orders increased by 1.6% and foreign orders increased by 2.9% in November 2020 on the previous month. New orders from the euro area went up 6.1%, and new orders from other countries increased by 0.9% compared with October 2020.
In November 2020, the manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders increase by 4.9% compared with October 2020. The manufacturers of capital goods saw an increase of 1.1% on the previous month. Regarding consumer goods, new orders rose 0.5%.
For October 2020, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in an increase of 3.3% compared with September 2020 (provisional: +2.9).
Turnover 1.1% on the previous month
According to provisional figures, real turnover in manufacturing (seasonally and calendar adjusted) stood at +1.1% in November 2020, compared to the previous month. Compared with February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the corona pandemic in Germany, turnover in November 2020 was 3.6% lower in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms. For October 2020, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in an increase of 3.2% compared with September 2020 (provisional: +4.0).
Methodological notes
The differing comparative periods must be taken into account in all press releases on short-term indicators. Short-term economic monitoring focuses on comparisons with the previous month or previous quarter. These reflect economic trends. A comparison with the previous year is intended to offer a long-term comparison of levels and is not subject to seasonal fluctuations. During the current coronavirus crisis, the strong decreases especially in March/April 2020 and the slowly emerging recovery have produced highly different results for the comparison with the previous month/previous quarter and the comparison with the previous year. Both of the two perspectives are important: what is the short-term economic trend compared with the previous month/previous quarter, and how far has the catching-up process gone compared with the previous year’s level? In order to provide also a direct comparison with the pre-crisis level, all press releases on short-term indicators available in seasonally adjusted form will from now on include a comparison with February 2020 or the 4th quarter of 2019.
The data on new orders and turnover are based on the volume index of manufacturing, seasonally and calendar adjusted by means of X13 JDemetra+. (The underlying mathematical-statistical method is not fundamentally different from the previously applied method X-12-ARIMA.)
New orders and turnover are covered and evaluated in accordance with the Classification of Economic Activities, 2008 edition (WZ 2008). New orders are covered only in selected economic branches of manufacturing.
Detailed data and long time series are available from the GENESIS-Online database (indices of new orders 42151-0004, indices of new orders excluding major orders 42151-0008 and turnover indices 42152-004).
Crisis Monitor enables comparison between corona crisis and financial/economic crisis
The index of new orders is also part of the “Crisis Monitor“ (www.destatis.de/krisenmonitor), by means of which the Federal Statistical Office compares the development of major short-term indicators in the corona crisis and the financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009. The “Crisis monitor” complements the “Corona statistics“ webpage (www.destatis.de/corona), which has provided statistical information on the economic and social consequences of the corona pandemic.
