Press release No. 044 of 29 January 2021
WIESBADEN – According to provisional results, at least 106,607 people died in Germany in December 2020. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that this figure exceeds the December average for 2016-2019 by 29%, or 24,038 people. According to most recent information, death figures in November 2020 were 12% above the average of the four preceding years. This is shown by an ad-hoc evaluation of provisional mortality figures for the year 2020. The last time that more than 100,000 deaths were recorded in December was in 1969. Mortality rose due to the Hong Kong flue with 109,134 deaths being recorded. A total of 20,043 deaths were reported to the Robert Koch Institute for December 2020 of people who had suffered from laboratory confirmed COVID-19 disease.
Number of deaths more than doubled in Sachsen
The development of mortality figures continues to be especially striking in Sachsen where death figures were markedly higher in November already (+39%). In December the number of deaths more than doubled compared to the average of the four previous years (+103% or 4,999 cases). In Brandenburg (+48% or 1,353 cases), Thüringen (+42% or 1,085 cases), Bayern (+33% or 3,927 cases), Hessen (+33% or 1,912 cases) and Sachsen-Anhalt (+32% or 918 cases), too, the number of deaths was at least 30% above the 2016-2019 average in December 2020.
Minor flu epidemic, hot summer and coronavirus waves had an impact over the year
The death figures showed various special trends in the course of 2020. In the first three months of the year, the number of deaths was below the average of the four preceding years. During the typical flu season at the beginning of the year, mortality had not increased as markedly as in 2017 or 2018, when the impact of the flu waves had been comparatively strong. In all of April, the death figures were markedly higher than the average of previous years. At the same time, there was an increase in the number of COVID-19 deaths. When they went down, the death figures were around the previous years’ average from the month of May. In August they were up again. This often happens in the summer and this year it appears to be due to a heat wave, too. In September the figures still were on a slightly higher level. Then the difference of the mortality figures from the average of the previous years increased again from mid-October. At the same time, the number of people who died and who had had laboratory confirmed COVID-19 disease increased to a similar extent.
| Total number 2020 | Difference from Ø 2016-2019 | COVID-19 Deaths | Relative difference from … | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ø 2016-2019 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | ||||
| number | % | |||||||
| Sources: total death figures: Federal Statistical Office ( as at 29 January 2020, COVID-19 deaths: Robert Koch Institute (as at 27 January 2021) | ||||||||
| January | 85,384 | -1,579 | -2 | +4 | -11 | 0 | 0 | |
| February | 80,013 | -3,506 | -4 | +4 | -12 | -7 | -1 | |
| March | 87,452 | -2,659 | 1,122 | -3 | +5 | +5 | -18 | +1 |
| April | 83,845 | +7,478 | 6,043 | +10 | +11 | +15 | +5 | +8 |
| May | 75,775 | +,644 | 1,571 | +1 | +2 | 0 | +2 | 0 |
| June | 72,134 | +1,724 | 308 | +2 | +4 | +4 | +4 | -2 |
| July | 73,756 | -,260 | 133 | 0 | +2 | +3 | -2 | -4 |
| August | 78,629 | +4,980 | 148 | +7 | +10 | +10 | 0 | +7 |
| September | 73,980 | +4,191 | 202 | +6 | +7 | +7 | +6 | +4 |
| October | 79,431 | +3,862 | 1,446 | +5 | +5 | +6 | +7 | +3 |
| November | 85,483 | +9,189 | 8,185 | +12 | +11 | +14 | +14 | +9 |
| December | 106,607 | +24,038 | 20,043 | +29 | +26 | +31 | +32 | +28 |
| Year 2020 | 982,489 | +48,100 | 39,201 | +5 | +8 | +5 | +3 | +5 |
Increase in the total number of deaths
A total of 982,489 deaths have so far been reported by the registrar's offices to the official statistics agencies for the year 2020. This means that the number of deaths is up by at least 42,969 or 5% on 2019. As 2020 was a leap year, the extra day accounts for about 3,000 cases compared with 2019. Yearly figures reflect the development over an entire year; they are usually shown as part of a times series and in direct comparison with the preceding year. If the existing trend towards a rising life expectancy and the foreseeable shifts in the age structure were taken into consideration and if there had not been any special developments, a smaller increase of about 1 to 2% could have been expected for the year 2020.
The higher mortality figures of 2020 are largely due to an increased number of deaths in the age group of people aged 80 or over. Altogether, at least 576,646 people of that age group died (+41,152 cases or +8% compared with 2019). According to population projection results, the number of people aged 80 or over presumably rose by approximately 4 to 5% in the course of the year. The mortality figures for people aged under 80 years are around the level of the previous year (+1,817 cases).
Increase in deaths even higher in other European countries
A European comparison shows that in some other European countries the number of deaths rose more markedly than in Germany in 2020. The national statistical institute of Belgium (Statbel) reports a 17% increase in the number of deaths on the previous year (+ roughly 18,000 cases). According to the figures presently provided for England and Wales by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the number of deaths rose by roughly 15% compared with the previous year (+77,000 cases), which is the second highest increase since 1940. According to the information available to date, death figures in Sweden are up by 11%, or about 9,300 cases, on the preceding year. Statistics Austria states that the number of deaths increased by roughly 11%, or 9,000 cases, compared with the average of the past five years. The national statistical institute of France (INSEE) reports that deaths figures were up by 7% on the previous year (+ roughly 45,000 cases). The statistical office of the European Union (Eurostat) recorded higher death figures in many European countries especially for spring and autumn.
Methodological notes on the mortality figures for Germany:
Based on the ad-hoc evaluation "Sterbefälle – Fallzahlen nach Tagen, Wochen, Monaten, Altersgruppen, Geschlecht und Bundesländern für Deutschland 2016 bis 2020" (Deaths – Number of cases by day, week, month, age group, sex and Land for Germany, 2016 to 2020), users can carry out their own analyses of how death figures developed. First provisional data are provided from 2020. The provisional data are mere counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out.
Due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the routines of registrar’s offices submitting data for official statistics, up-to-date information on the number of deaths can be provided with a delay of about four weeks. When the reporting routines of the past are considered, the results available for 2020 are expected to increase by 1% (approximately 10,000 cases) due to late reporting.
Periods of excess mortality in the course of a year can be identified on the basis of the provisional death figures. This reveals direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on death figures at an early point in time. For this purpose, the figures are compared with the average of four preceding years – the statistical office of the European Union (Eurostat) uses this method as well – to account for the varying impact of recurring seasonal effects (for instance due to flue or heat waves). The trend towards a rising life expectancy and the increasing proportion of older people also have an impact on the number of deaths to be expected. Neither of the two can be accounted for in this comparison.
From March 2020, the figures can be interpreted only in the light of the measures taken to contain the coronavirus pandemic. In addition to preventing COVID-19 deaths, these measures may have contributed to reducing the number of deaths from other infectious diseases such as the flu, which also has an impact on the difference from the average. Decreases or increases in the number of deaths from other causes may also have an effect on total deaths. The mortality figures, however, do not provide information on the incidence of individual causes of death.
To give a final evaluation of the annual mortality development in 2020, the number of deaths is then placed in relation to the actual population in order to consider, for instance, the ageing process of the population in an adequate manner. The final results which are required for this, including all deaths reported late, will be available in mid-2021. The estimated interval for the expected increase in the number of deaths is determined by the average changes of the previous years, population projection results and the extra day of the leap year of 2020.
The provisional mortality figures refer to the date of death, not the date on which a death was registered. As the COVID-19 deaths reported by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) by date of death are also released with a four-week delay, the figures can be compared over time with the provisional total death figures. COVID-19 deaths for which no information or implausible information was submitted on the date of death are not included in this RKI evaluation.
More information:
For more information on the ad-hoc evaluation of day-to-day mortality figures please refer to the theme page "Deaths, life expectancy", the podcast "Sterbefallzahlen und Übersterblichkeit während der Corona-Pandemie” and the "Corona statistics" webpage of the Federal Statistical Office.
