Press release No. 056 of 9 February 2021
WIESBADEN – According to extrapolated figures of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), 103,804 people died in Germany in January 2021. This is an increase of 18%, or 15,925 people, on the January average of the years 2017-2020. With this new method of extrapolation the Federal Statistical Office has speeded up the release of preliminary death figures for all of Germany by roughly three weeks compared with the method used before. After approximately one week’s time it can already be seen how many people died in a week that passed. The Federal Statistical Office thus enables an up-to-date evaluation of mortality during the coronavirus pandemic.
Death figures above average especially in the group of people aged 80 or over
In January 2021, the above-average mortality figures were largely due to an increased number of deaths in the group of people aged 80 years or over. The number of those aged 80 years or over who died in January was 29% higher (+14,464) than the average of the four preceding years. For the people below 80, death figures in January differed far less from the four-year average (+4% or +1,461 cases).
Record highs shortly before the turn of the year (2020/2021)
A comparison of total deaths with the number of COVID-19 deaths reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) is currently possible up to the first week of 2021 (4 to 10 January). The number of people who died in that week increased by 4,881 compared with the average of the four preceding years, and the number of COVID-19 deaths amounted to 4,966. This was a decline of 375 cases compared with the preceding week (Week 53 of 2020: 5,341 COVID-19 deaths). The number of people who died and who had suffered from laboratory confirmed COVID-19 disease reached an all-time high (5,453 cases) shortly before the turn of the year, that is, in Week 52 of 2020 (21 to 27 December). Amounting to +6,620, the difference between the total of deaths in that week and the average of the previous years also reached a record high.
| Week | Total number 2021 | Difference from Ø 2017-2020 | COVID-19 Deaths | Relative difference from … | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ø 2017-2020 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||
| number | % | |||||||
| Sources: total death figures: Federal Statistical Office ( as at 9 February 2021, COVID-19 deaths: Robert Koch Institute (as at 3 February 2021) | ||||||||
| 01 | 24,343 | +4,881 | 4,966 | +25 | +16 | +26 | +30 | +29 |
| 02 | 24,014 | +4,154 | . | +21 | +9 | +28 | +25 | +24 |
| 03 | 23,416 | +3,723 | . | +19 | +10 | +22 | +22 | +22 |
| 04 | 21,862 | +1,936 | . | +10 | -1 | +14 | +12 | +15 |
| 01 - 04 | 93,635 | +14,694 | . | +19 | +8 | +22 | +22 | +22 |
Death figures in Sachsen again unusually high at the beginning of the year
At the Länder level, mortality figures can currently be shown up to the first week of 2021. The development of mortality figures continued to be especially striking in Sachsen at the beginning of the year. There the number of deaths had increased markedly in November (+39%) and December 2020 (+103%) - each related to the average of the years 2016 to 2019. In the first week of the new year, the mortality figures in Sachsen increased by 77%, or approximately 887 cases, compared with the 2017-2020 average. The number of deaths in the first week of January was at least 30% above the four-year average in Thüringen (+55% or roughly 334 cases), Brandenburg (+53% or 353 cases), Sachsen-Anhalt (+39% or 273 cases) and Hessen (+34% or 468 cases).
A graphical overview of the development of mortality figures in all Länder is available here.
Methodological notes on the mortality figures for Germany
Information on the number of deaths in Germany as a whole has so far been provided with a delay of about four weeks. Because of the high relevance of timely mortality figures during the coronavirus pandemic, the Federal Statistical Office has developed an estimation model for the extrapolation of incomplete data. Using this model, nationwide mortality figures can now be released after approximately one week. The mortality figures of the last nine weeks are extrapolated using the figures so far submitted by the registrar’s offices. Therefore the figures can be slightly higher or lower at a later time. The estimation is based on the patterns observed in reporting delays in the past. This approach allows mortality figures for Germany as a whole to be released after about one week, while comparable results for the individual Länder become available not earlier than after about four weeks due to reporting delay differences.
The relevant notes in the ad hoc evaluation "Sterbefälle – Fallzahlen nach Tagen, Wochen, Monaten, Altersgruppen, Geschlecht und Bundesländern für Deutschland 2016 bis 2021" (Deaths – Number of cases by day, week, month, age group, sex and Land for Germany, 2016 to 2021) provide more detailed information on the extrapolation procedure. The tables also permit analyses of your own.
The 2020 and 2021 ad hoc evaluation is based on first provisional data (raw data). These provisional data are mere counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out. Due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the routines of registrar’s offices submitting data for official statistics, these data are still incomplete. In some cases, the reporting delay differs significantly between the individual Länder. To provide timely data that are as accurate and comparable as possible, the estimation procedure for extrapolating incomplete death figures is therefore applied to the most recent data.
Periods of excess mortality in the course of a year can be identified on the basis of the provisional death figures. This reveals direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on death figures at an early point in time. For that purpose, we compare the figures with the average of the four preceding years – as does the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat) – to account for the varying impact of recurring seasonal effects (for instance due to flue or heat waves). This means that the deaths of 2020 are related to the average of the years 2016 to 2019 and the deaths of 2021 to the 2017-2020 average. The impact of the rising life expectancy and the increasing proportion of older people on the number of deaths to be expected cannot be considered by this comparison.
From March 2020, the figures can be interpreted only in the light of the measures taken to contain the coronavirus pandemic. In addition to preventing COVID-19 deaths, the measures and the change of behaviour may have contributed to reducing the number of deaths from other infectious diseases such as the flu, which also has an impact on the difference from the average. Decreases or increases in the number of deaths from other causes may also have an effect on total deaths. The mortality figures, however, do not provide information on the incidence of individual causes of death.
To give a final evaluation of the mortality development, the number of deaths is then placed in relation to the actual population in order to consider, for instance, the ageing process of the population in an adequate manner. The final results required for this, including all deaths reported late, are generally available by the middle of the following year, that is by mid-2021 for 2020. A first assessment is given in press release Nr. 044 of 29 January 2021.
The provisional mortality figures refer to the date of death, not the date on which a death was registered. As the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) currently publishes the reported COVID-19 deaths by death date until Week 1 of 2021, these can presently be compared until that week with the provisional total death figures. COVID-19 deaths for which no information or implausible information was submitted on the date of death are not included in this RKI evaluation.
More information
The Federal Statistical Office provides more information on the ad hoc evaluation of mortality figures on its "Deaths, life expectancy" theme page and its "Corona statistics" webpage.
