Press release No. 069 of 16 February 2021
WIESBADEN – According to an extrapolation of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), 20,908 people died in Germany in Week 5 (1 to 7 February). This was 1%, or 201 people, more than the number of people who died in that week on average across the years 2017 to 2020. According to most recent information, death figures in the last week of January were 11% above the average of the previous four years. This is shown by a special evaluation of provisional death figures. As the Federal Statistical Office has recently started applying a new extrapolation method, first death figures for Germany can be released already after roughly one week.
Difference from the average across previous years and number of COVID-19 deaths are decreasing
A comparison of total deaths with the number of COVID-19 deaths reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) is currently possible up to the third week of 2021 (18 to 24 January). In that week, there were 4,294 COVID-19 deaths, according to the RKI. This means that the figure was down by 386 on the preceding week.
Although total death figures, too, continued to decrease in Week 3, they were by 4,053 cases, or 21%, above the average of the preceding four years. In Weeks 4 and 5, the difference from the average across previous years was markedly down. According to the current weekly influenza report of the RKI, the activity of other respiratory diseases which usually are connected with a rise of death figures at the beginning of a year have been at an unprecedented low level this winter. Especially in 2017, the death figures were markedly higher than usual in the first weeks of the year, which was due to a serious flu epidemic.
| Week | Total number 2021 | Difference from Ø 2017-2020 | COVID-19 Deaths | Relative difference from … | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ø 2017-2020 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||
| number | % | |||||||
| Sources: total death figures: Federal Statistical Office ( as at 15 February 2021, COVID-19 deaths: Robert Koch Institute (as at 12 February 2021) | ||||||||
| Week 1 | 24,509 | +5,047 | 5,191 | +26 | +17 | +27 | +31 | +30 |
| Week 2 | 24,162 | +4,302 | 4,680 | +22 | +9 | +29 | +26 | +24 |
| Week 3 | 23,746 | +4,053 | 4,294 | +21 | +12 | +24 | +24 | +24 |
| Week 4 | 22,178 | +2,252 | . | +11 | 0 | +16 | +14 | +17 |
| Week 5 | 20,908 | +,201 | . | +1 | -12 | +7 | +6 | +5 |
| Weeks 1 - 5 | 115,503 | +15,854 | . | +16 | +5 | +20 | +20 | +20 |
Largest differences from average again recorded in Sachsen
At the Länder level, mortality figures can currently be shown up to the second week of 2021. The largest difference from the average of the previous years in this week is again recorded for Sachsen (+54% or 636 cases). After death figures in that Land had more than doubled in December (+103%), they are now decreasing. In Thüringen (+53% or roughly 327 cases), Sachsen-Anhalt (+50% or 335 cases) and Brandenburg (+48% or 332 cases), too, the number of deaths in the second week of January was at least 30% above the four-year average.
A graphical overview of the development of mortality figures in all Länder is available here.
Clear findings about excess mortality in Portugal and England
The EuroMOMO network for mortality monitoring compares findings about excess mortality across Europe. Based on its own extrapolation of incomplete data reports, the network also has first figures up to Week 5, which may go up due to late reporting. For that week, extraordinary high excess mortality is reported already now for Portugal. Very high excess mortality is currently reported for England.
Methodological notes on the mortality figures for Germany
The 2020 and 2021 ad hoc evaluation is based on first provisional data (raw data). These are mere counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out. Due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the routines of registrar’s offices submitting data for official statistics, these data are still incomplete.
Because of the high relevance of timely mortality figures during the coronavirus pandemic, the Federal Statistical Office has developed an estimation model for the extrapolation of incomplete data. The model allows to provide nationwide mortality figures already after one week. The mortality figures of the last nine weeks are extrapolated using the figures so far submitted by the registrar’s offices. Therefore the figures can be slightly higher or lower at a later time. The estimate is based on the patterns observed in reporting delays in the past, which differ in part considerably between regions. Comparable results for the Länder are therefore not available earlier than after roughly four weeks.
The relevant notes in the ad hoc evaluation "Sterbefälle – Fallzahlen nach Tagen, Wochen, Monaten, Altersgruppen, Geschlecht und Bundesländern für Deutschland 2016 bis 2021" (Deaths – Number of cases by day, week, month, age group, sex and Land for Germany, 2016 to 2021) provide more detailed information on the extrapolation procedure. The tables also permit analyses of your own.
Periods of excess mortality in the course of a year can be identified on the basis of the provisional death figures. This reveals direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on death figures at an early point in time. For that purpose, we compare the figures with the average of the four preceding years – as does the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat) – to account for the varying impact of recurring seasonal effects (for instance due to flue or heat waves). This means that the deaths of 2020 are related to the average of the years 2016 to 2019 and the deaths of 2021 to the 2017-2020 average. The impact of the rising life expectancy and the increasing proportion of older people on the number of deaths to be expected cannot be considered by this comparison.
From March 2020, the figures can be interpreted only in the light of the measures taken to contain the coronavirus pandemic. In addition to preventing COVID-19 deaths, the measures and the change of behaviour may have contributed to reducing the number of deaths from other infectious diseases such as the flu, which also has an impact on the difference from the average. Decreases or increases in the number of deaths from other causes may also have an effect on total deaths. The mortality figures, however, do not provide information on the incidence of individual causes of death.
To give a final evaluation of the mortality development, the number of deaths is then placed in relation to the actual population in order to consider, for instance, the ageing process of the population in an adequate manner. The final results required for this, including all deaths reported late, are generally available by the middle of the following year, that is by mid-2021 for 2020. A first assessment is given in press release no. 044 of 29 January 2021.
The provisional mortality figures refer to the date of death, not the date on which a death was registered. As the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) currently publishes the reported COVID-19 deaths by death date until Week 3 of 2021, these can presently be compared until that week with the provisional total death figures. This RKI evaluation refers to the number of people who died and had had laboratory confirmed COVID-19 disease. This does not include cases for which no data or implausible data on the date of death were reported. The results have not been corrected yet for late reporting and are expected to increase due to late reports.
More information
The Federal Statistical Office provides more information on the ad hoc evaluation of mortality figures on its "Deaths, life expectancy" theme page and its "Corona statistics" webpage.
