Press release No. 135 of 18 March 2021
Stock of orders in manufacturing, January 2021
+0.8% on the previous month (in real terms, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
Range of unfilled orders: 6.9 months
WIESBADEN – Based on provisional data, the price adjusted stock of orders in manufacturing in January 2021 increased a seasonally and calendar adjusted 0.8% on the previous month, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). Domestic orders not yet completed and the corresponding foreign orders increased at almost the same rate (0.9% and 0.8%, respectively). Compared with February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the corona pandemic in Germany, unfilled orders in January 2021 were 5.0% higher in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms.
Unfilled orders held by producers of intermediate goods in January 2021 were 2.7% higher than in the previous month. The producers of capital goods recorded an increase of 0.3%. Regarding consumer goods, the stock rose by 3.3% compared to December 2020.
The range of the stock of orders continued to rise. In manufacturing, it stood at 6.9 months in January 2021, which was a new high (December 2020: 6.7 months). For the producers of intermediate goods, the range of the stock of orders in January 2021 was 3.5 months (December: 3.4 months), for the producers of capital goods 9.7 months (December: 9.3 months) and for consumer goods 2.8 months (December: 2.7 months).
The range indicates for how many months establishments, theoretically, would have to produce goods until all orders on hand are filled - with turnover remaining constant and without any new orders being received. It is calculated as the ratio between the current stock of orders and average turnover of the last 12 month in the respective branch.
Methodological notes:
The differing comparative periods must be taken into account in all press releases on short-term indicators. Short-term economic monitoring focuses on comparisons with the previous month or previous quarter. These reflect short-term economic trends. A comparison with the previous year is intended to offer a long-term comparison of levels and is not subject to seasonal fluctuations. Due to strong temporary decreases and increases during the current coronavirus crisis, the results of month-on-month/quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year comparisons may differ considerably. Both of the two perspectives are important: what is the short-term economic trend compared with the previous month/previous quarter, and how far has the catching-up process gone compared with the previous year’s level? In order to provide also a direct comparison with the pre-crisis level, all press releases on short-term indicators available in seasonally adjusted form will, for the time being, include a comparison with February 2020 or the fourth quarter of 2019.
The stock of orders comprises the total of new orders received by the end of the reference month which have not led to any turnover and have not been cancelled by that time.
The data on unfilled orders are based on the volume index of the stock of orders in manufacturing, seasonally and calendar adjusted by means of the X13 JDemetra+ method. The index of the stock of orders covers only selected branches of manufacturing, as does the index of new orders.
More information:
Results regarding the stock of orders in manufacturing, also by branch, are additionally available on the "Corona statistics" webpage of the Federal Statistical Office together with other indicators which can be used to assess the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.
Detailed data are available from the GENESIS-Online database (42155-0004 indices of the stock of orders and 42113-0001 ranges of the stock of orders).
