Press release No. 156 of 30 March 2021
WIESBADEN – According to extrapolated figures of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), 18,807 people died in Germany in the third week of March (15 to 21 March 2021). This is 9%, or 1,879 cases, below the average of the years 2017 to 2020 for that week. This is shown by an ad hoc evaluation of provisional death figures. Applying an extrapolation method to incomplete reports allows to release first death figures for Germany already after roughly one week.
Number of COVID-19 deaths continues to fall
A comparison of total deaths with the number of COVID-19 deaths reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) is currently possible up to and including Week 9 of 2021 (1 to 7 March). In that first week of March, there were 1,220 COVID-19 deaths, according to the RKI. This means that the figure was down by 326 on the preceding week. Total death figures continued to decrease in Week 9; they were by 3,247 cases, or 15%, below the average of the preceding four years.
| Week | Total number 2021 | Difference from Ø 2017-2020 | COVID-19 Deaths | Relative difference from … | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ø 2017-2020 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||
| number | % | |||||||
| Sources: total death figures: Federal Statistical Office (as at 29 March 2021), COVID-19 deaths: Robert Koch Institute (as at 26 March 2021) | ||||||||
| Week 1 | 24.687 | +5.225 | 5.402 | +27 | +18 | +28 | +32 | +31 |
| Week 2 | 24.297 | +4.437 | 4.917 | +22 | +10 | +29 | +27 | +25 |
| Week 3 | 23.922 | +4.229 | 4.637 | +21 | +13 | +25 | +25 | +25 |
| Week 4 | 22.463 | +2.536 | 3.956 | +13 | +2 | +17 | +15 | +19 |
| Week 5 | 21.540 | +831 | 3.171 | +4 | -9 | +10 | +9 | +9 |
| Week 6 | 20.807 | +344 | 2.540 | +2 | -9 | +4 | +4 | +9 |
| Week 7 | 20.360 | -578 | 1.915 | -3 | -10 | -4 | +1 | +4 |
| Week 8 | 18.896 | -2.221 | 1.546 | -11 | -15 | -17 | -7 | 0 |
| Week 9 | 18.443 | -3.247 | 1.220 | -15 | -12 | -28 | -11 | -5 |
| Week 10 | 18.714 | -2.783 | . | -13 | -2 | -30 | -9 | -5 |
| Week 11 | 18.807 | -1.879 | . | -9 | +1 | -23 | -5 | -5 |
| Weeks 1 - 11 | 232.936 | +6.895 | . | +3 | -1 | -2 | +7 | +9 |
Unusually mild flu wave explains below-average death figures
According to the current weekly influenza report of the RKI, the activity of other respiratory diseases which is usually connected with a rise of death figures at the beginning of a year has been at an unprecedented low level this winter. Especially in 2017 and 2018, death figures were markedly higher than usual in the first months of the year due to serious flu epidemics. These developments are also reflected by the average of total death figures across the previous years. They explain why total death figures in February fell below the average of previous years despite the new COVID-19 deaths.
Marked East-West differences in February
At the Länder level, mortality figures can currently be shown up to and including Week 8 (22 to 28 February 2021). Death figures in that last week of February were around, or below, the average of the previous years in all Länder. For the entire month of February, the death figures were above that average in all east-German non-city Länder - in Thüringen by 9% (226 cases), in Sachsen-Anhalt by 8% (239 cases), in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern by 6% (109 cases), in Sachsen by 4% (180 cases) and in Brandenburg by 3% (95 cases). In all west-German Länder, with the exception of Saarland (+3% or 38 cases) and Berlin, death figures in February 2021 were below the average of the previous four years.
A graphical overview of the development of mortality figures in all Länder is available here.
Development of death figures in Europe currently inconspicuous
The EuroMOMO network for mortality monitoring compares findings about excess mortality across Europe using another approach. Based on its own extrapolation of incomplete data reports, the network also has first figures up to the third week of March, which may change due to late reporting. Regarding Week 11, EuroMOMO reports low excess mortality for Israel. In all other countries for which first results are available there, the development of death figures is currently inconspicuous.
Methodological notes on the mortality figures for Germany:
The 2020 and 2021 ad hoc evaluation is based on first provisional data (raw data). These are mere counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out. Due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the routines of registrar’s offices submitting data for official statistics, these data are still incomplete.
Because of the high relevance of timely mortality figures during the coronavirus pandemic, the Federal Statistical Office has developed an estimation model for the extrapolation of incomplete data. The model allows nationwide mortality figures to be provided already after roughly one week. The mortality figures of the last nine weeks are extrapolated using the figures so far submitted by the registrar’s offices. Therefore the figures can be slightly higher or lower at a later time. The estimate is based on the patterns observed in past reporting delays, some of which differ considerably between regions. Comparable results for the Länder are therefore not available earlier than after roughly four weeks.
The relevant notes in the ad hoc evaluation "Sterbefälle – Fallzahlen nach Tagen, Wochen, Monaten, Altersgruppen, Geschlecht und Bundesländern für Deutschland 2016 bis 2021" (Deaths – Number of cases by day, week, month, age group, sex and Land for Germany, 2016 to 2021) provide more detailed information on the extrapolation procedure. The tables also permit analyses of your own.
Periods of excess mortality in the course of a year can be identified on the basis of the provisional death figures. This reveals direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on death figures at an early point in time. For that purpose, we compare the figures with the average of the four preceding years – as does the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat) – to account for the varying impact of recurring seasonal effects (for instance due to flu or heat waves). This means that the deaths of 2020 are related to the average of the years 2016 to 2019 and the deaths of 2021 to the 2017-2020 average. The impact of the rising life expectancy and the increasing proportion of older people on the number of deaths to be expected cannot be considered by this comparison.
From March 2020, the figures can only be interpreted in the light of the measures taken to contain the coronavirus pandemic. In addition to preventing COVID-19 deaths, the measures and the change of behaviour may have contributed to reducing the number of deaths from other infectious diseases such as the flu, which also has an impact on the difference from the average. Decreases or increases in the number of deaths from other causes may also have an effect on total deaths. The mortality figures, however, do not provide information on the incidence of individual causes of death.
To give a final evaluation of the mortality development, the number of deaths is then placed in relation to the actual population in order to consider, for instance, the ageing process of the population in an adequate manner. The final results required for this, including all deaths reported late, are generally available by the middle of the following year, that is by mid-2021 for 2020. A first assessment is given in press release no. 044 of 29 January 2021.
The provisional mortality figures refer to the date of death, not the date on which a death was registered. As the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) currently publishes the reported COVID-19 deaths by death date until Week 9 of 2021, these can presently be compared until that week with the provisional total death figures. This does not include cases for which no information or implausible information on the date of death was reported. The results have not been corrected yet for late reporting and are expected to increase due to late reports. More background information on these data can be found on the RKI website.
More information:
The Federal Statistical Office provides more information on the ad hoc evaluation of mortality figures on its "Deaths, life expectancy" theme page and its "Corona statistics" webpage.
For background information on the calculation of excess mortality, current methods and results please refer to our podcast on mortality figures during the corona pandemic.
The next ad hoc evaluation of death figures will be released on 13 April 2021 and will contain first results on mortality in Germany for March 2021.
