Press Gross domestic product: detailed results on the economic performance in the 1st quarter of 2021

Economic performance 5.0% below pre-crisis level

Press release No. 244 of 25 May 2021

Gross domestic product, 1st quarter of 2021
-1.8% on the previous quarter (price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted)
-3.4% on the same quarter a year earlier (price-adjusted)
-3.1% on the same quarter a year earlier (price- and calendar-adjusted)

WIESBADEN – The gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 1.8% in the first quarter of 2021 on the fourth quarter of 2020 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. After the German economy had somewhat recovered in the second half of 2020 (+8.7% in the third quarter and +0.5% in the fourth quarter), the coronavirus crisis caused another decline in economic performance at the beginning of 2021. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that the decrease was slightly larger than reported in the first release of 30 April 2021. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, the quarter before the corona crisis began, GDP was 5.0% lower.

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Gross domestic product, price-adjusted (and adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects using X13)
Changes on a quarter earlier (percent):
201920202021
1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr1st qtr
0.6-0.50.30.0-2.0-9.78.70.5-1.8

Household final consumption expenditure markedly down, increase in imports larger than in exports

The continuing, and in part intensified, restrictions imposed to contain the coronavirus pandemic had a particularly marked impact on household final consumption expenditure at the beginning of the year. In the first quarter of 2021, household final consumption expenditure fell by 5.4% on the fourth quarter of 2020 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. Government final consumption expenditure was slightly higher than in the previous quarter (+0.2%). Positive contributions came especially from gross fixed capital formation in construction in the first quarter of 2021 as it rose 1.1% on the fourth quarter of 2020 after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment. Seasonally adjusted gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment was slightly down on the previous quarter (-0.2%).
Foreign trade increased at the beginning of the year. However, the increase in imports of goods and services in the first quarter of 2021 (+3.8%, price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted) was markedly larger than the increase in exports (+1.8%).

Gross value added fell considerably in trade and construction

In the first quarter of 2021, the price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted gross value added decreased by 0.8% on the fourth quarter of 2020. Diverging trends were shown for the individual economic sectors. Gross value added in manufacturing was slightly up on the fourth quarter of 2020 (+0.4%), whereas gross value added in trade, transport, accommodation and food services was down (-3.2%). The decrease in construction was even larger (-4.9%), one of the reasons being the unusually cold weather at the beginning of the year.

Gross domestic product still markedly down on a year earlier

GDP in the first quarter of 2021 was down a price-adjusted 3.4% compared with the first quarter of 2020. After price and calendar adjustment, the decrease was slightly smaller (-3.1%) as there was one working day less than a year earlier.

Gross domestic product, price-adjusted
Changes on a year earlier in percent:
201920202021
1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr1st qtr
1.0-0.31.20.2-1.8-11.3-3.7-2.3-3.4

Household final consumption expenditure fell sharply also on a year earlier, trade in goods increased

Domestic demand continued to be far lower than a year earlier. This applies especially to household final consumption expenditure, which was down a price-adjusted 9.1% on the first quarter of 2020. Gross fixed capital formation did not contribute to year-on-year growth either. Fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment decreased by 0.7% and in construction by 1.6% on a year earlier. Only government final consumption expenditure (+2.5%) and foreign demand had an upward effect when compared with a year earlier.
Foreign trade rose considerably on the first quarter of 2020, with exports of goods increasing slightly more than imports of goods. At the same time, foreign trade in services saw two-digit decreases, as was the case in the previous three quarters. On the whole, exports of goods and services fell by 0.6% (price-adjusted) in the first quarter of 2021 on the first quarter of 2020. Total imports declined by 3.0% in the same period.

In nearly all economic sectors, economic performance was down on a year earlier

On the production side of the GDP, price-adjusted gross value added was lower in almost all economic sectors in the first quarter of 2021 compared with a year earlier. The largest decreases (-13.9%) were recorded for other services, which include entertainment and recreation. In trade, transport, accommodation and food services, gross value added fell sharply, too (-8.2%). Especially accommodation and food services recorded an even larger decrease. Following the two-digit slump last summer, the economic situation in manufacturing continued to improve; nevertheless, gross value added in the first quarter of 2021 was still by 1.2% below the level of the first quarter of 2020. Information and communication is the only sector that saw noticeable economic growth on a year earlier (+0.7%).

Total gross value added was down 3.5%.

Number of persons in employment still markedly below pre-crisis level

The economic performance in the first quarter of 2021 was achieved by roughly 44.4 million persons in employment whose place of employment was in Germany. This was a decrease of 707,000, or 1.6%, on a year earlier (see press release 230/21 of 18 May 2021). It must be noted, however, that short-time work does not affect the employment figures because short-time workers still count as persons in employment.
However, short-time work had a substantial effect on the average number of hours worked per person in employment. The latter decreased by 4.0% in the first quarter of 2021 compared with the first quarter of 2020, according to first provisional calculations of the Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Employment Agency. The labour volume of the overall economy, which is the total number of hours worked by all persons in employment, went down even more (-5.5%) over the same period.
Overall labour productivity (price-adjusted GDP per hour worked by persons in employment) rose by 2.3% on the same quarter of the previous year, according to provisional calculations. However, labour productivity per person in employment was down 1.9% compared with the first quarter of 2020.

Stable incomes and consumer reticence lead to increase of savings ratio

At current prices, both the GDP and the gross national income were down 1.1% in the first quarter of 2021 compared with a year earlier. Net national income at factor costs was up 0.9% on the first quarter of 2020. While the compensation of employees was slightly down (-0.4%), property and entrepreneurial income was up 4.0% according to first provisional calculations. Gross wages and salaries per employee recorded a slight increase on average (+0.2%), while average net salaries rose 1.0% because of decreasing social contributions paid by employees. The disposable income of households was by 1.1% higher in the first quarter of 2021 than a year earlier. Household final consumption expenditure at current prices, however, showed a decrease of 7.3%. As in the previous three quarters, the relatively stable incomes, on the one hand, and consumer reticence, on the other, resulted in a substantial rise in household saving during the corona crisis. According to provisional calculations, the savings ratio was 23.2% in the first quarter of 2021.

International and European comparison

Trends were diverging within Europe. In the first quarter of 2021, the price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP declined for example in Spain (-0.5%) and Italy (-0.4%) on the fourth quarter of 2020, while a slight increase was seen in France (+0.4%). According to provisional calculations, the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat) reported a GDP decline of 0.4% on the previous quarter for the European Union (EU) as a whole, which was markedly smaller than for Germany (-1.8%). The United States recorded a substantial increase in their gross domestic product (+1.6%, converted figure) at the beginning of the year, compared with the fourth quarter of 2020.
When compared with a year earlier, too, an increase in GDP (+0.4%, converted figure) was reported for the United States. The French economy recorded a considerable increase on the first quarter of 2020 (+1.5%), whereas most EU Member States reported marked decreases. Spain recorded the largest year-on-year decline (-4.3%) of all the Member States which have data available as yet for the first quarter of 2021. In Italy, the decline (-1.4%) was smaller than in Germany (-3.1%). For the whole EU, Eurostat released a preliminary result of -1.7% on the same quarter of the previous year.

Gross domestic product, price-adjusted, seasonally and calendar-adjusted, 1st quarter of 2021
Percentage change:
 USAEuro areaEU-27FranceItalySpainGermany
Previous quarter: change on the 4th quarter of 2020;
Same quarter of the previous year: change on the 1st quarter of 2020.
Previous quarter1.6-0.6-0.40.4-0.4-0.5-1,8
Same quarter of the previous year0.4-1.8-1.71.5-1.4-4.3-3,1

For a detailed comparison of the EU Member States’ growth rates please refer to our web page “Europe in figures”.

Revision of previous results and methodological notes

The greater uncertainties caused by the corona pandemic may lead to larger revisions than usual. This applies in particular to the seasonally and calendar-adjusted quarterly data. In addition to the calculations for the last four years, the models and parameters of seasonal and calendar adjustment will be adjusted as part of the coming summer calculations, which is done at regular intervals.
In addition to calculating data for the first quarter of 2021, the Federal Statistical Office also reviewed the results for all four quarters and the year of 2020 and included new statistical information in the calculation. Compared with the first release of 30 April 2021, minor changes of the results published so far have become necessary only in the current first quarter of 2021 for the gross domestic product. Detailed data on the recalculations are shown in the table “Comparison between old and new figures” in this press release.

Gross domestic product
 Unadjusted figuresFigures according to X13
price-adjusted
At current pricesPrice-adjustedSeasonally and
calendar-adjusted
Calendar-
adjusted
EUR billion% 12015 = 100% 12015 = 100% 2% 1 3
1 Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year in %.
2 Change on the previous year or quarter in %.
3 As for years, the calendar-adjusted values equal the seasonally and calendar-adjusted values (except for differences due to rounding).
qtr = quarter
20193,449.052.8106.810.6106.990.60.6
20203,336.18-3.3101.72-4.8101.50-5.1-5.1
20191st qtr845.823.0106.361.0107.230.61.1
2nd qtr846.941.9105.36-0.3106.69-0.50.1
3rd qtr870.153.6107.741.2107.020.30.7
4th qtr886.142.5107.790.2107.000.00.4
20201st qtr851.060.6104.44-1.8104.87-2.0-2.2
2nd qtr768.87-9.293.46-11.394.70-9.7-11.3
3rd qtr843.87-3.0103.72-3.7102.948.7-3.8
4th qtr872.38-1.6105.27-2.3103.490.5-3.3
20211st qtr841.31-1.1100.88-3.4101.62-1.8-3.1

Comparison between old and new figures - gross domestic product, price-adjusted

 

 

New resultPrevious resultDifference
Figures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects using X13 1Unadjusted figuresFigures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects using X13 1Unadjusted figuresFigures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects using X13 1Unadjusted figures
Change, percent 2Percentage points

1 calendar-adjusted figures for annual data.

2 Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures: change on the previous year or the previous quarter
  unadjusted figures: change on the previous year or on the previous year's quarter.

Q = quarter

2020 -5.1-4.8-5.1-4.80.00.0

2020

 

Q1-2.0-1.8-2.0-1.80.00.0
Q2-9.7-11.3-9.7-11.30.00.0
Q38.7-3.78.7-3.70.00.0
Q40.5-2.30.5-2.30.00.0
2021Q1-1.8-3.4-1.7-3.3-0.1-0.1

Use of the gross domestic product
Unadjusted figures 
 20202021
1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr1st qtr
At current prices
EUR bn.
Consumption expenditure 616.935 578.957 628.129 641.955 596.750
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs 437.114 395.093 441.537 437.849 405.367
Government final consumption expenditure 179.821 183.864 186.592 204.106 191.383
Gross capital formation 184.647 157.098 164.774 170.216 185.192
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) 174.270 178.874 187.131 198.172 174.814
GFCF in construction 91.688 99.887 100.906 96.308 91.873
GFCF in machinery and equipment 51.296 46.675 53.156 63.931 51.455
GFCF in other products 31.286 32.312 33.069 37.933 31.486
Domestic uses 801.582 736.055 792.903 812.171 781.942
Exports 394.139 309.775 365.081 391.126 395.498
Imports 344.661 276.960 314.114 330.917 336.130
Gross domestic product (GDP) 851.060 768.870 843.870 872.380 841.310
Price-adjusted, Change on the previous year in %
Consumption expenditure-0.1-8.4-1.5-3.0-5.6
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs-1.3-13.3-3.7-5.5-9.1
Government final consumption expenditure2.74.44.23.52.5
Gross capital formation-2.3-8.9-11.5-4.9-1.0
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)-0.6-7.4-3.50.6-1.1
GFCF in construction5.30.6-0.84.9-1.6
GFCF in machinery and equipment-9.2-23.6-10.0-4.1-0.7
GFCF in other products-1.1-1.3-0.7-1.1-0.7
Domestic uses-0.6-8.5-3.8-3.4-4.6
Exports-3.2-22.2-9.2-3.1-0.6
Imports-0.8-17.4-10.0-5.6-3.0
Gross domestic product (GDP)-1.8-11.3-3.7-2.3-3.4
memorandum item:
GDP per person in employment-2.1-10.1-2.3-0.9-1.9
GDP per hour worked by persons in employment0.0-2.00.51.62.3
Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP--gross domestic product
in % points
Consumption expenditure-0.1-6.1-1.1-2.2-4.1
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs-0.7-7.0-1.9-2.9-4.6
Government final consumption expenditure0.60.90.90.70.6
Gross capital formation-0.5-1.9-2.5-1.0-0.2
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)-0.1-1.7-0.80.1-0.2
GFCF in construction0.50.1-0.10.5-0.2
GFCF in machinery and equipment-0.6-1.7-0.7-0.30.0
GFCF in other products0.0-0.10.0-0.10.0
Changes in inventories and so on-0.4-0.2-1.8-1.20.0
Domestic uses-0.6-8.0-3.6-3.2-4.3
Balance of exports and imports (net exports)-1.2-3.3-0.10.90.9

 

 Use of the gross domestic product
Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures using X13
 20202021
1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr1st qtr
1 Only seasonally adjusted.
qtr = quarter
At current prices
EUR bn.
Consumption expenditure 630.640 585.138 626.256 621.786 610.653
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs 447.096 397.163 436.029 429.150 415.311
Government final consumption expenditure 183.544 187.975 190.227 192.636 195.342
Gross capital formation 184.390 164.194 157.715 167.697 186.492
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) 188.735 176.782 182.215 187.582 190.485
GFCF in construction 99.998 96.122 93.419 97.526 100.906
GFCF in machinery and equipment 55.472 47.201 54.934 56.043 56.019
GFCF in other products 33.265 33.459 33.862 34.013 33.560
Domestic uses 815.030 749.332 783.971 789.483 797.145
Exports 392.920 310.978 365.698 383.209 396.017
Imports 348.582 280.411 310.077 322.771 340.716
Gross domestic product (GDP) 859.368 779.899 839.592 849.921 852.446
Price-adjusted, change on the previous quarter in %
Consumption expenditure-1.3-7.88.0-1.5-3.6
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs-2.2-11.511.2-2.3-5.4
Government final consumption expenditure1.11.31.00.10.2
Gross capital formation0.1-7.1-4.85.17.5
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)-0.4-6.73.72.50.3
GFCF in construction4.3-4.3-1.33.71.1
GFCF in machinery and equipment-6.8-15.115.91.9-0.2
GFCF in other products-2.50.20.90.1-1.6
Domestic uses-1.0-7.65.1-0.2-1.3
Exports-3.3-20.417.94.41.8
Imports-1.1-16.99.23.33.8
Gross domestic product (GDP)-2.0-9.78.70.5-1.8
memorandum item: 
GDP per person in employment-2.0-8.48.90.4-1.7
GDP per hour worked by persons in employment 1-0.6-2.12.71.60.1
Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP
in % points
Consumption expenditure-0.9-5.76.0-1.2-2.7
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs-1.2-6.05.8-1.2-2.7
Government final consumption expenditure0.20.30.20.00.0
Gross capital formation0.0-1.5-1.11.01.5
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)-0.1-1.50.90.50.1
GFCF in construction0.5-0.5-0.20.40.1
GFCF in machinery and equipment-0.5-1.01.00.10.0
GFCF in other products-0.10.00.00.0-0.1
Changes in inventories and so on0.1-0.1-1.90.51.4
Domestic uses-0.9-7.34.9-0.2-1.2
Balance of exports and imports (net exports)-1.1-2.43.80.7-0.6
Gross value added by economic sector
 20202021
1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr 1st qtr
At current prices
EUR bn.
Agriculture, forestry and fishing 5.990 6.074 5.576 5.252 5.581
Industry, excluding construction 183.701 150.112 170.657 186.307 185.062
including:
Manufacturing 157.589 128.685 148.148 160.028 158.261
Construction 38.304 44.463 46.390 55.014 39.337
Trade, transport, accommodation and food services 118.247 109.384 125.176 124.024 112.450
Information and communication 39.487 35.330 40.001 40.638 41.391
Financial and insurance activities 29.308 29.104 29.259 29.247 29.270
Real estate activities 83.444 81.349 84.729 84.417 87.592
Business services 90.205 76.152 85.899 87.117 88.539
Public services, education, health 149.058 136.365 149.536 156.800 150.524
Other services 29.658 23.894 29.316 26.302 26.589
Gross value added, total 767.402 692.227 766.539 795.118 766.335
Price-adjusted, Change on the previous year in %
Agriculture, forestry and fishing3.92.93.03.0-2.8
Industry, excluding construction-5.7-21.3-9.6-1.8-1.2
including:
Manufacturing-5.9-22.7-10.6-1.8-1.2
Construction6.12.0-1.78.8-3.6
Trade, transport, accommodation and food services-0.1-14.2-3.1-3.8-8.2
Information and communication0.3-3.4-0.70.40.7
Financial and insurance activities1.1-0.5-0.7-1.4-0.4
Real estate activities0.6-1.7-0.50.00.2
Business services-1.7-12.6-8.7-7.1-5.7
Public services, education, health-0.6-8.20.1-3.7-3.0
Other services-2.4-20.3-6.0-17.1-13.9
Gross value added, total-1.5-11.5-4.2-2.7-3.5
Distribution of gross national income
20202021
1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr1st qtr

At current prices

EUR bn

Gross national income 878.349 781.922 867.545 903.344 868.268
Net national income (factor costs) 634.136 560.428 633.322 673.218 640.020
Compensation of employees 445.088 437.103 455.196 506.182 443.316
Property and entrepreneurial income 189.048 123.325 178.126 167.036 196.704
Gross wages and salaries of employees 365.633 355.042 374.233 416.619 361.729
Net wages and salaries of employees 245.776 234.198 258.481 281.045 245.014
memorandum item:
Disposable income of households 508.079 479.521 494.345 501.996 513.616
Savings ratio (in %) 16.3 20.0 13.2 15.4 23.2
Change on the previous year in %
Gross national income0.7-8.8-3.1-1.6-1.1
Net national income (factor costs)0.9-8.8-2.40.20.9
Compensation of employees3.0-3.2-0.50.4-0.4
Property and entrepreneurial income-3.7-24.3-6.8-0.54.0
Gross wages and salaries of employees2.9-4.4-1.00.0-1.1
Net wages and salaries of employees2.8-3.9-0.30.9-0.3
memorandum item:
Disposable income of households2.7-1.40.51.01.1

Visualised national accounts

The gross domestic product also forms part of the Crisis Monitor (www.destatis.de/krisenmonitor), by means of which the Federal Statistical Office compares the development of major short-term indicators in the corona crisis and the financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009. The Crisis Monitor complements the Corona Statistics webpage (www.destatis.de/corona), which provides statistical information on the economic and social consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. Visualised updated results are also available in our interactive national accounts dashboard (only in german).

More information

More information on the quality of the GDP early estimate and on why the Federal Statistical Office has started to release the more rapid calculation of the GDP as of the second quarter of 2020 just in times of the coronavirus pandemic is given in our podcast at www.destatis.de --> Themen --> Wirtschaft --> Volkswirtschaftliche-Gesamtrechnungen-Inlandsprodukt --> Aktuelles. For an English-language text version please go to www.destatis.de --> Themes --> Economy --> National accounts, domestic product --> Current news.

More detailed results have been published in Fachserie 18 “National Accounts“, Series 1.2 “Quarterly results“ and Series 1.3„Seasonally adjusted quarterly results using X13“. The above and other publications are provided at www.destatis.de --> Themes --> Economy --> National accounts, domestic product --> Publications.

A long time series containing quarterly results of the gross domestic product since the first quarter of 1970 is available at www.destatis.de --> Topics: National accounts --> Domestic product --> Tables.

The above and other current national accounting results are available in the GENESIS-Online database. (81000)

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