Press release No. 247 of 25 May 2021
WIESBADEN – According to extrapolated figures of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), 18,324 people died in Germany in Week 19 (10 to 16 May 2021). This is 6%, or 991 cases, above the average of the years 2017 to 2020 for that week. Compared to the previous week, the number of deaths decreased. According to most recent information, death figures in Week 18 (3 to 9 May 2021) amounted to 18,916, which was an increase of 10% compared to the average of the previous four years. This is shown by an ad hoc evaluation of provisional death figures. Applying an extrapolation method to incomplete reports allows to release first death figures for Germany already after roughly one week.
| Week | Total number 2021 | Difference from avg 2017-2020 | COVID-19 Deaths | Relative difference from … | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| avg 2017-2020 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||
| number | % | |||||||
| Sources: total death figures: Federal Statistical Office (as at 24 May 2021), COVID-19 deaths: Robert Koch Institute (as at 21 May 2021) | ||||||||
| Week 1-6 | 138.227 | +18.111 | 25.078 | +15 | +4 | +19 | +19 | +20 |
| Week 7-12 | 112.316 | -13.409 | 8.349 | -11 | -7 | -22 | -7 | -4 |
| Week 13 | 18.325 | -905 | 1.297 | -5 | +3 | -12 | -1 | -7 |
| Week 14 | 18.633 | -467 | 1.420 | -2 | +9 | -7 | 0 | -10 |
| Week 15 | 18.919 | +309 | 1.399 | +2 | +12 | -1 | +6 | -8 |
| Week 16 | 19.093 | +1.091 | 1.441 | +6 | +15 | +6 | +6 | -1 |
| Week 17 | 19.355 | +1.559 | 1.368 | +9 | +10 | +13 | +8 | +4 |
| Week 18 | 18.916 | +1.683 | . | +10 | +10 | +13 | +11 | +6 |
| Week 19 | 18.324 | +991 | . | +6 | +6 | +6 | +7 | +4 |
| Weeks 1-19 | 382.108 | +8.965 | . | +2 | +2 | -2 | +6 | +4 |
Number of COVID-19 deaths is decreasing
A comparison of total deaths with the number of COVID-19 deaths by death date reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) is currently possible up to and including Week 17 of 2021 (26 April to 2 May 2021). In that week, there were 1,368 COVID-19 deaths, according to the RKI. This was a decrease of 73 cases compared with the preceding week. According to most recent information, total death figures in Week 17 exceeded the average of the previous four years by 1,559 cases (+9%). In 2020, the coronavirus pandemic started impacting the development of mortality figures at the end of March and has since had an effect on the average of the previous four years.
Death figures in all east-German Länder more than 10% above the average
At the Länder level, mortality figures can currently be shown up to and including Week 16 (19 to 25 April 2021). In that week, the death figures in three Länder fell short of the average of previous years, and most clearly so in Saarland (-15% or 41 fewer cases). Mortality figures were above the average in the remaining Länder. The difference amounted to more than 10% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (+22% or 87 cases), Thüringen (+21% or 114 cases), Sachsen-Anhalt (+17% or 106 cases), Sachsen (+17% or 172 cases), Berlin (+14% or 95 cases) and Brandenburg (+12% or 74 cases).
A graphical overview of the development of mortality figures in all Länder is available here
Moderate excess mortality in Spain
The EuroMOMO network network for mortality monitoring compares findings about excess mortality across Europe using another approach. Based on its own extrapolation of incomplete data reports and its excess mortality concept, the network also has first figures up to Week 19, which may however change due to late reporting. Currently, EuroMOMO does not report excess mortality for Germany in that week. Moderate excess mortality is reported for Spain and low excess mortality for Estonia.
Methodological notes on the mortality figures for Germany:
The 2020 and 2021 ad hoc evaluation is based on first provisional data (raw data). These are mere counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out. Due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the routines of registrar’s offices submitting data for official statistics, these data are still incomplete.
Because of the high relevance of timely mortality figures during the coronavirus pandemic, the Federal Statistical Office has developed an estimation model for the extrapolation of incomplete data. The model allows nationwide mortality figures to be provided already after roughly one week. The mortality figures of the last nine weeks are extrapolated using the figures so far submitted by the registrar’s offices. Therefore the figures can be slightly higher or lower at a later time. The estimate is based on the patterns observed in past reporting delays, some of which differ considerably between regions. Comparable results for the Länder are therefore only available after roughly four weeks.
The relevant notes in the ad hoc evaluation "Sterbefälle – Fallzahlen nach Tagen, Wochen, Monaten, Altersgruppen, Geschlecht und Bundesländern für Deutschland 2016 bis 2021" (Deaths – Number of cases by day, week, month, age group, sex and Land for Germany, 2016 to 2021) provide more detailed information on the extrapolation procedure. The tables also permit analyses of your own.
Periods of excess mortality in the course of a year can be identified on the basis of the provisional death figures. This reveals direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on death figures at an early point in time. For that purpose, we compare the figures with the average of several previous years – as does the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat) – to account for the varying impact of recurring seasonal effects (for instance due to flu or heat waves). The impact of the rising life expectancy and the increasing proportion of older people on the number of deaths to be expected cannot be considered by this comparison.
From March 2020, the figures can only be interpreted in the light of the measures taken to contain the coronavirus pandemic. In addition to preventing COVID-19 deaths, the measures and the change of behaviour may have contributed to reducing the number of deaths from other infectious diseases such as the flu, which also has an impact on the difference from the average. Decreases or increases in the number of deaths from other causes may also have an effect on total deaths. The mortality figures, however, do not provide information on the incidence of individual causes of death.
To give a final evaluation of the mortality development, the number of deaths is then placed in relation to the actual population in order to consider, for instance, the ageing process of the population in an adequate manner. The final results required for this, including all deaths reported late, are generally available by the middle of the following year, that is by mid-2021 for 2020. A first assessment is given in press release no 044 of 29 January 2021.
The provisional mortality figures refer to the date of death, not the date on which a death was registered. As the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) currently publishes the reported COVID-19 deaths by death date until Week 17 of 2021, these can presently be compared until that week with the provisional total death figures. This does not include cases for which no information or implausible information on the date of death was reported. The results have not been corrected yet for late reporting and are expected to increase due to late reports. More background information on these data can be found on the RKI website.
More information: The Federal Statistical Office provides more information on the ad hoc evaluation of mortality figures on its Deaths, life expectancy theme page and its Corona statistics webpage.
For background information on the calculation of excess mortality, current methods and results please refer to our podcast on mortality figures during the coronavirus pandemic.
