Press release No. 415 of 6 September 2021
July 2021 (provisional): new orders in manufacturing
+3.4% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
+24.4% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)
June 2021 (revised): new orders in manufacturing
+4.6% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
+26.5% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)
WIESBADEN – Real (price adjusted) new orders in manufacturing rose by 3.4%, on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, in July 2021 compared with June 2021, according to provisional results of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). New orders reached the highest level since the beginning of the time series in 1991. The previous record high had been reached in December 2017 before the beginning of the corona crisis. The marked month-on-month increase was caused by major orders. Excluding major orders, there was a decline of 0.2% in July 2021.
Compared with February 2020, which was the month before restrictions were imposed due to the corona pandemic in Germany, new orders in July 2021 were 15.7% higher in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms. Compared with July 2020 (-6.4% compared to July 2019), the increase in calendar adjusted new orders amounted to +24.4%.
Domestic orders decreased by 2.5%. Foreign orders went up by 8.0% in July 2021 on the previous month. New orders from the euro area decreased 4.1%, and new orders from other countries rose by 15.7% compared with June 2021 due to many major orders especially from the shipbuilding sector.
In July 2021, the manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders decrease by 0.5% compared with June 2021. The manufacturers of capital goods saw an increase of 5.4% on the previous month. Regarding consumer goods, new orders rose by 7.5%.
For June 2021, the revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in an increase of 4.6% compared with May 2021 (provisional: +4.1).
Turnover +1.9% on the previous month
According to provisional figures, real turnover in manufacturing (seasonally and calendar adjusted) stood at 1.9 % in July 2021, compared to the previous month. Compared with July 2020, the increase in calendar adjusted turnover amounted to +5.7%.
Compared with February 2020, which was the month before restrictions were imposed due to the corona pandemic in Germany, turnover in July 2021 were -4.6% lower in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms.
For several months, a trend of increasing new orders and stagnating turnover has been recorded. The reason for this trend can be expected to have been a delivery bottleneck regarding intermediate products, which was reported for many branches.
For June 2021, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in a decrease of -1.1% compared with May 2021 (provisional: -1.4%).
Methodological notes
The differing comparative periods must be taken into account in all press releases on short-term indicators. Short-term economic monitoring focuses on comparisons with the previous month or previous quarter. These reflect short-term economic trends. A calendar adjusted comparison with the previous year is intended to offer a long-term comparison of levels and is not subject to seasonal fluctuations or calendar effects. Due to strong temporary decreases and increases during the current coronavirus crisis, the results of month-on-month/quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year comparisons may differ considerably. In order to provide also a direct comparison with the pre-crisis level, all press releases on short-term indicators available in seasonally adjusted form will, for the time being, include a comparison with February 2020 or the fourth quarter of 2019.
The data on new orders and turnover are based on the volume index of manufacturing, seasonally and calendar adjusted by means of X13 JDemetra+. (The underlying mathematical-statistical method is not fundamentally different from the previously applied method X-12-ARIMA.)
New orders and turnover are covered and evaluated in accordance with the Classification of Economic Activities, 2008 edition (WZ 2008). New orders are covered only in selected economic branches of manufacturing.
Detailed data and long time series are available from the GENESIS-Online database (42151-0004: indices of new orders; 42151-0008: indices of new orders excluding major orders; 42152-0004: turnover indices).
Crisis Monitor enables comparison between corona crisis and financial/economic crisis
The index of new orders is also part of the “Crisis Monitor“ (www.destatis.de/krisenmonitor), by means of which the Federal Statistical Office compares the development of major short-term indicators in the corona crisis and the financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009. The “Crisis monitor” complements the “Corona statistic“ webpage, which has provided statistical information on the economic and social consequences of the corona pandemic.
