Press release No. 481 of 12 October 2021
WIESBADEN – According to extrapolated figures of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), 77,612 people died in Germany in September 2021. This is 10% above the median of the years 2017 to 2020 for that month (+7,247 cases). This is shown by an ad hoc evaluation of provisional death figures. Applying an extrapolation method to incomplete reports allows first death figures for Germany to be released after roughly one week. In Week 39 (27 September to 3 October) the figures exceeded the median of previous years by 6%.
| Month | Total 2021 | Difference from median 2017-2020 | Relative difference from ... | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| median 2017-2020 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |||
| number | % | ||||||
| As at 11 October 2021 | |||||||
| January | 106,485 | +21,442 | +25 | +11 | +25 | +25 | +25 |
| February | 82,004 | -1,400 | -2 | -10 | -4 | +1 | +2 |
| March | 81,676 | -5,392 | -6 | -2 | -24 | -6 | -7 |
| April | 81,523 | +3,048 | +4 | +11 | +2 | +5 | -3 |
| May | 80,621 | +4,945 | +7 | +7 | +8 | +7 | +6 |
| June | 76,443 | +5,541 | +8 | +10 | +10 | +4 | +6 |
| July | 76,105 | +1,405 | +2 | +7 | +1 | -1 | +3 |
| August | 75,751 | -156 | 0 | +6 | -3 | +3 | -4 |
| September | 77,612 | +7,247 | +10 | +12 | +11 | +9 | +5 |
| January to September | 738,220 | +32,311 | +5 | +5 | +2 | +5 | +4 |
Number of COVID-19 deaths continuing to increase
A comparison of total deaths with the number of COVID-19 deaths by death date reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) is currently possible up to and including Week 37 of 2021 (13 to 19 September). In that week, there were 375 COVID-19 deaths, according to the RKI. This was an increase of 77 cases compared with the preceding week. The figures have been rising since early August. However, they cannot explain the higher overall mortality observed since Week 36.
| Week | Total number 2021 | Difference from median 2017-2020 | COVID-19 Deaths | Relative difference from … | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| median 2017-2020 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | ||||
| number | % | |||||||
| Sources: total death figures: Federal Statistical Office (as at 11 October 2021), COVID-19 deaths: Robert Koch Institute (as at 7 October 2021) | ||||||||
| Week 1-6 | 138,615 | +22,400 | 25,441 | +19 | +4 | +19 | +19 | +21 |
| Week 7-12 | 113,050 | -7,870 | 8,615 | -7 | -7 | -21 | -6 | -4 |
| Week 13-22 | 185,732 | +7,812 | 12,124 | +4 | +9 | +4 | +5 | +0 |
| Week 23-32 | 173,494 | +3,607 | 1,064 | +2 | +7 | +1 | +1 | +3 |
| Week 33 | 17,288 | +769 | 126 | +5 | +7 | +2 | +8 | -12 |
| Week 34 | 16,993 | +555 | 158 | +3 | +7 | +2 | +4 | -3 |
| Week 35 | 17,149 | +789 | 245 | +5 | +7 | +7 | -3 | +3 |
| Week 36 | 18,653 | +2,464 | 298 | +15 | +19 | +14 | +17 | +11 |
| Week 37 | 17,988 | +1,690 | 375 | +10 | +11 | +10 | +10 | +5 |
| Week 38 | 18,099 | +1,521 | - | +9 | +10 | +9 | +10 | +3 |
| Week 39 | 18,155 | +1,080 | - | +6 | +8 | +14 | +4 | +4 |
| Week 1-39 | 735,216 | +30,360 | - | +4 | +5 | +1 | +5 | +4 |
Higher mortality figures in all Länder since early September
At the Länder level, mortality figures can currently be shown up to and including Week 36 (6 to 12 September 2021). In that week, they exceeded the median of the preceding years in all 16 Länder. The six Länder recording the largest positive differences were Saarland (+20% or 46 cases), Bayern (+19% or 433 cases), Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (+19% or 69 cases), Brandenburg (+18% or 103 cases), Nordrhein-Westfalen (+18% or 647 cases) and Niedersachsen (+18% or 290 cases). The smallest difference was recorded for Sachsen (+4% or 35 cases).
A graphical overview of the development of mortality figures in all Länder is available here.
Higher mortality figures in Week 36 also in other European countries
The EuroMOMO network for mortality monitoring compares findings about excess mortality across Europe based on its own extrapolation of incomplete data and using its own excess mortality concept. In September, this survey recorded low or moderate excess mortality in many European countries especially for Week 36. In Germany, too, the deviation from the median of the previous years was most marked in that week (+15% or 2,464 cases) – at EuroMOMO this deviation corresponds to low excess mortality.
Methodological notes on the mortality figures for Germany:
The 2021 ad hoc evaluation is based on first provisional data (raw data). These are mere counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out. Due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the routines of registrar’s offices submitting data for official statistics, these data are still incomplete.
Because of the high relevance of timely mortality figures during the coronavirus pandemic, the Federal Statistical Office has developed an estimation model for the extrapolation of incomplete data. The model allows nationwide mortality figures to be provided already after roughly one week. The mortality figures of the last nine weeks are extrapolated using the figures so far submitted by the registrar’s offices. Therefore the figures can be slightly higher or lower at a later time. The estimate is based on the patterns observed in past reporting delays, some of which differ considerably between regions. Comparable results for the Länder are therefore only available after roughly four weeks. The ad hoc evaluation is updated every week on the Deaths, life expectancy theme page. New results are released every Tuesday.
Periods of excess mortality in the course of a year can be identified on the basis of the provisional death figures. This reveals direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on death figures at an early point in time. For that purpose, we compare the figures with the median of several previous years to account for the varying impact of recurring seasonal effects (for instance due to flu or heat waves). The impact of the rising life expectancy and the increasing proportion of older people on the number of deaths to be expected cannot be considered by this comparison. The median has been used since reference month July 2021 for the comparison with previous years. Before that, the current mortality figures had been compared with the arithmetic mean of the previous years. The advantage of the median compared to the arithmetic mean is that it is less prone to specific one-off developments and outliers. Otherwise the second coronavirus wave would lift the average from October 2020 to a level at which the current values would be compared with an “excessive” mortality caused by extraordinary effects rather than a “normal” mortality. Using the median allows a more meaningful evaluation of the development in the further course of the year. More information on how the median is calculated and used is contained in the press release of 10 August 2021.
From March 2020, the figures can only be interpreted in the light of the measures taken to contain the coronavirus pandemic. In addition to preventing COVID-19 deaths, these measures and the change of behaviour may have contributed to reducing the number of deaths from other infectious diseases such as the flu, which also has an impact on the comparison with previous years. Decreases or increases in the number of deaths from other causes may also have an effect on total deaths. The mortality figures, however, do not provide information on the incidence of individual causes of death.
To give a final evaluation of the mortality development, the number of deaths is then placed in relation to the actual population in order to consider, for instance, the ageing process of the population. The final results which are required for this, including all deaths reported late, are regularly available in the middle of the subsequent year. Information on the relevant results for 2020 is given in the press release of 9 July 2021.
The provisional mortality figures refer to the date of death, not the date on which a death was registered. As the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) currently publishes the reported COVID-19 deaths by death date until Week 37 of 2021, these can presently be compared until that week with the provisional total death figures. This does not include cases for which no information or implausible information on the date of death was reported. The results have not been corrected yet for late reporting and are expected to increase due to late reports. More background information on these data can be found on the RKI website.
More information:
The Federal Statistical Office provides more information on the ad hoc evaluation of mortality figures on its Deaths, life expectancy theme page and its Corona statistics webpage.
For background information on the calculation of excess mortality, current methods and results please refer to an article in “WISTA – Wirtschaft und Statistik“ on mortality figures during the coronavirus pandemic.
