Press release No. 525 of 17 November 2021

Stock of orders in manufacturing, August 2021
+2.4% on the previous month (in real terms, calendar and seasonally adjusted)

The range of stock, August 2021
Range of unfilled orders: 7.4 months

WIESBADEN – Based on provisional data, the price adjusted stock of orders in manufacturing in September 2021 increased a seasonally and calendar adjusted 2.4% on the previous month, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The stock of orders thus has continuously increased since June 2020 and in September 2021 it reached its highest level since the set of statistics was introduced in January 2015. In the last few months, new orders rose faster than turnover. This means that the number of new orders received by local units in manufacturing exceeded the number of orders completed. Delivery bottlenecks in the supply chains of intermediate products can be expected to be a substantial reason for the high stock of orders.

Domestic orders not yet completed rose in September 2021 1.2% compared to August 2021 and the corresponding foreign orders increased 3.1%. Compared with February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the corona pandemic in Germany, unfilled orders in September 2021 were 24.6% higher in calendar and seasonally adjusted terms.

Unfilled orders held by producers of intermediate goods in September 2021 were 1.8% higher than in the previous month. The producers of capital goods recorded an increase of 2.7%. This increase was mainly attributable to the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (+5.9%) and the manufacture of machinery and equipment (+3.9%). Regarding consumer goods, the stock fell by 0.5% compared to August 2021.

The range of the stock continued to increase, too. The range of the stock in manufacturing stood at 7.4 months in September 2021 and also reached its highest level since the time series started in 2015 (August 2021: 7.3 months). For the producers of capital goods, the range of the stock of orders in September 2021 was 10.5 months (August: 10.2 months), for the producers intermediate goods 3.8 months (August: 3.9 months) and for consumer goods 3.2 months (August: 3.3 months).

The range indicates for how many months establishments, theoretically, would have to produce goods until all orders on hand are filled - with turnover remaining constant and without any new orders being received. It is calculated as the ratio between the current stock of orders and average turnover of the last 12 month in the respective branch.

Methodological notes:

The differing comparative periods must be taken into account in all press releases on short-term indicators. Short-term economic monitoring focuses on comparisons with the previous month or previous quarter. These reflect short-term economic trends. A comparison with the calendar adjusted previous year is intended to offer a long-term comparison of levels and is not subject to seasonal fluctuations and calendar effects. Due to strong temporary decreases and increases during the current coronavirus crisis, the results of month-on-month/quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year comparisons may differ considerably. In order to provide also a direct comparison with the pre-crisis level, all press releases on short-term indicators available in seasonally adjusted form will, for the time being, include a comparison with February 2020 or the fourth quarter of 2019.

The data on unfilled orders are based on the volume index of the stock of orders in manufacturing, seasonally and calendar adjusted by means of the X13 JDemetra+ method. The index of the stock of orders covers only selected branches of manufacturing, as does the index of new orders.

More information:

Results regarding the stock of orders in manufacturing, also by branch, are additionally available on the “Corona statistics” webpage of the Federal Statistical Office together with other indicators which can be used to assess the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.

Detailed data are available in the GENESIS-Online database (42155-0004 indices of the stock of orders and 42113-0001 ranges of the stock of orders).