Press release No. 064 of 15 February 2022
WIESBADEN – 88,308 people died in Germany in January 2022, according to extrapolated figures of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The number of deaths is 4% above the median for that month in the years 2018 to 2021 (+3,265 cases). This is shown by an ad hoc evaluation of provisional death figures. Death figures exceeded the median of the previous four years by 7% in the first week of the year (3 to 9 January) but were only slightly higher than this comparative figure in the following weeks (between 2% and 3%). At the beginning of 2022, mortality in Germany was thus almost back to its usual level after death figures at the end of 2021 had in part been considerably higher than the median of the preceding years.
Number of COVID-19 deaths continued to decline at the beginning of 2022
At present, comparisons of total deaths with the number of COVID-19 deaths reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) by death date can be made up to Week 3 of 2022 (17 to 23 January). So far, 739 COVID-19 deaths have been reported to the RKI with a date of death in that week, which means that the figure was down for the seventh week in a row. In Week 3, deaths were 2%, or 366 cases, above the median of the four preceding years.
| Total 2022 | Difference from median 2018-2021 | COVID-19-Deaths | Relative difference from ... | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| median 2018-2021 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ||||
| number | % | |||||||
| Sources: total death figures: Federal Statistical Office (as at 04 February 2022), COVID-19 deaths: Robert Koch Institute (as at 10 February 2022) | ||||||||
| Week 1 | 20,477 | +1,364 | 1,139 | +7 | +6 | +10 | +8 | -18 |
| Week 2 | 19,634 | + 345 | 858 | +2 | +5 | +2 | +1 | -20 |
| Week 3 | 19,541 | + 366 | 739 | +2 | +2 | +2 | +3 | -19 |
| Week 4 | 19,968 | + 630 | . | +3 | +4 | +2 | +6 | -12 |
| Week 5 | 20,413 | + 620 | . | +3 | +4 | +3 | +3 | -6 |
| Week 1-5 | 100,033 | +3,851 | . | +4 | +4 | +4 | +4 | -15 |
Decline of death figures in nearly all Länder
At the Länder level, mortality figures can currently be shown up to Week 2 of 2022 (10 to 16 January). In all Länder, mortality figures tended to get closer to the median of previous years at the beginning of 2022. In Week 2, the largest difference from the median of the previous years was recorded for Sachsen-Anhalt (+10% or 68 cases), Schleswig-Holstein (+8 % or 60 cases), Brandenburg (+8 % or 58 cases) and Thüringen (+8 % or 47 cases). In December 2021, the number of deaths had in some cases exceeded the comparative value of the preceding years by more than 50% in individual weeks and Länder.
A graphical overview of the development of mortality figures in all Länder is available on a special page of the Federal Statistical Office’s website.
Higher excess mortality in other European countries
The EuroMOMO network for mortality monitoring compares findings about excess mortality across Europe based on its own extrapolation of incomplete data and using its own excess mortality concept. Low to moderate excess mortality was determined for Germany and some other countries in the weeks of January. High excess mortality was reported for Denmark, France, Italy and Spain in some weeks.
Methodological notes on the mortality figures for Germany:
The 2021 and 2022 ad hoc evaluation is based on first provisional data (raw data). These are mere counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out. Due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the routines of registrar’s offices submitting data for official statistics, these data are still incomplete.
Because of the high relevance of timely mortality figures during the coronavirus pandemic, the Federal Statistical Office has developed an estimation model for the extrapolation of incomplete data. This model allows nationwide mortality figures to be provided already after roughly one week. The mortality figures of the last nine weeks covered are extrapolated using the figures so far submitted by the registrar’s offices. Therefore the figures can be slightly higher or lower at a later time. The estimate is based on the patterns observed in past reporting delays, some of which differ considerably between regions. Comparable results for the Länder are therefore only available after roughly four weeks. The ad hoc evaluation is updated every week on the Deaths, life expectancy theme page. New results are available every Tuesday.
Periods of excess mortality in the course of a year can be identified on the basis of the provisional death figures. This reveals direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on death figures at an early point in time. For that purpose, we compare the figures with the median of several previous years to account for the varying impact of recurring seasonal effects (for instance due to flu or heat waves). The impact of the rising life expectancy and the increasing proportion of older people on the number of deaths to be expected cannot be considered in this intra-annual comparison.
The median has been used since reference month July 2021 for the comparison with previous years. The advantage of the median compared to the arithmetic mean is that it is less prone to specific one-off developments and outliers. Otherwise the second coronavirus wave would lift the average from October 2020 to a level at which the current values would be compared with an “excessive” mortality caused by extraordinary effects rather than a “normal” mortality. Using the median allows a more informative evaluation to be made of the development in the further course of the year. More information on how the median is calculated and used is contained in the press release No 373 of 10 August 2021.
From March 2020, the figures can only be interpreted in the light of the measures taken to contain the coronavirus pandemic. In addition to preventing COVID-19 deaths, these measures and the change of behaviour may have contributed to reducing the number of deaths from other infectious diseases such as the flu, which also has an impact on the comparison with previous years. The results of the causes of death statistics for 2020suggest that this was the case. Decreases or increases in the number of deaths from other causes may also have an effect on total deaths. The mortality figures, however, do not provide information on the incidence of individual causes of death.
To give a final evaluation of the mortality development, the number of deaths is then placed in relation to the actual population in order to consider, for instance, the ageing process of the population. The final results which are required for this, including all deaths reported late, are regularly available in the middle of the subsequent year. Information on the relevant results for 2020 is given in press release No 331 of 9 July 2021.
The provisional mortality figures refer to the date of death, not the date on which a death was registered. As the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) currently publishes the reported COVID-19 deaths by death date until Week 3 of 2022, these can presently be compared until that week with the provisional total death figures. This does not include cases for which no information or implausible information on the date of death was reported. The results have not been corrected yet for late reporting and are expected to increase due to late reports. More background information on these data can be found on the RKI website.
More information:
The Federal Statistical Office provides more information on the ad hoc evaluation of mortality figures on its Deaths, life expectancy theme page and its Corona statistics webpage.
At a press conference on 9 December 2021, the Federal Statistical Office presented more in-depth analyses of mortality during the coronavirus pandemic and results of causes of death statistics and hospital statistics for 2020. The whole statement and a relevant video are available on the overview page on the press conference.
We discuss the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for population projections also in our “StatGespräch“ podcast (only in german) on age structure. There we shed some light on the role which life expectancy plays for the population development in Germany.
