Press release No. 295 of 12 July 2022
WIESBADEN – 78,298 people died in Germany in June 2022, according to extrapolated figures of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). This is 8%, or 5,477 cases, above the median of the years 2018 to 2021 for that month. Death figures were higher especially in the second half of the month when very high temperatures were recorded. In Weeks 24 and 25 (13 to 26 June), death figures were markedly higher than the comparative figures (+10% and +14%, respectively). It is a well-known effect observed also in previous years that death figures rise along with heat waves.
| Mortality figures 2022 | Difference from median 2018-2021 | Relative difference from ... | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| median 2018-2021 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |||
| number | % | ||||||
| As at: 11 July 2022 | |||||||
| January | 89,165 | +4,122 | +5 | +5 | +5 | +5 | -16 |
| February | 82,465 | +915 | +1 | -4 | +2 | +3 | 0 |
| March | 93,255 | +6,187 | +7 | -13 | +8 | +7 | +14 |
| April | 85,540 | +4,912 | +6 | +8 | +11 | +2 | +5 |
| May | 80,664 | +4,912 | +6 | +8 | +7 | +6 | 0 |
| June | 78,298 | +5,477 | +8 | +13 | +7 | +9 | +2 |
Low Covid-19 death figures in June
At present, comparisons of total deaths with the number of Covid-19 deaths reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) by death date can be made up to Week 24 of 2022 (13 to 19 June). So far, 228 Covid-19 deaths have been reported to the RKI with a date of death in that week. In Week 24, total deaths were 10%, or 1,636 cases, above the median of the four preceding years. No clear trend of Covid-19 deaths was observed in February and March 2022, but the figures have declined markedly since the beginning of April and are at a low level in June. Although, in its current Weekly Influenza Report, the RKI reports an increasing Covid-19 activity as of Week 24, a marked increase in the number of serious illnesses has not been observed yet. It is therefore improbable that there was a direct impact on the higher death figures in mid to end June.
Death figures inconspicuous in many Länder in the middle of the month
At the Länder level, mortality figures can currently be shown up to Week 23 of 2022 (6 to 12 June). In that week, they exceeded the median of the preceding years by more than 10% in Schleswig-Holstein, Thüringen, Rheinland-Pfalz and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Higher figures were also recorded in Bremen, Nordrhein-Westfalen and Hessen. In all other Länder, death figures were close to, and in the city states of Hamburg and Berlin below, the comparative value.
A graphical overview of the development of mortality figures in all Länder is available on a special page (only in german) of the Federal Statistical Office’s website.
Low excess mortality also in neighbouring countries in the West
The EuroMOMO network for mortality monitoring compares findings about excess mortality across Europe based on its own extrapolation from incomplete data and using its own excess mortality approach. Low or moderate excess mortality was observed in Germany and the neighbouring countries Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium and Switzerland in at least one week of June. High excess mortality was recorded for Portugal and Spain in Week 24.
Methodological notes on the mortality figures for Germany:
The 2021 and 2022 ad hoc evaluation is based on first provisional data (raw data). These are merely counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out. The data are still incomplete due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the routines of registrar’s offices submitting data for official statistics.
Because of the high relevance of timely mortality figures during the Covid-19 pandemic, the Federal Statistical Office has developed an estimation model for the extrapolation of incomplete data. This model allows nationwide mortality figures to be provided after approximately one week. The mortality figures of the last nine weeks are extrapolated using the figures submitted so far by the registrar’s offices. Later figures can be slightly higher or lower as a result. The estimate is based on the patterns observed in past reporting delays, some of which differ considerably between regions. It therefore takes roughly four weeks until comparable results for the Länder are available. The ad hoc evaluation is updated every week on the “Deaths, life expectancy” page. New results are released every Tuesday.
Periods of excess mortality within a particular year can be identified on the basis of the provisional death figures. This reveals direct and indirect effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on death figures at an early stage. Here we compare the figures with the median of several previous years to account for the varying impact of recurring seasonal effects (such as flu or heat waves). This intra-annual comparison cannot account for the impact of the rising life expectancy and the increasing proportion of older people on the expected number of deaths.
The median has been used for the comparison with previous years since reference month July 2021. The advantage of using this comparative value instead of the arithmetic mean is that it is less prone to specific one-off developments and outliers, such as very strong flu waves or the Covid-19 waves since the beginning of the pandemic. Using the median allows a more accurate evaluation to be made of current death figures. The lowest and highest death figures from the four previous years are not included in the calculation of the median value. It is therefore possible that other comparative values are used for the weekly analysis than for the monthly analysis. In addition, calendar months do not represent the sum of calendar weeks. These are the reasons why the weekly death figures may not sum up to the monthly figures and why they may show different degrees of deviation from the median of the previous years. Press release No 373 of 10 August 2021 contains more information on how the median is calculated and used.
From March 2020, the figures should only be interpreted in the light of the measures taken to contain the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition to preventing Covid-19 deaths, these measures and changes in behaviour may have contributed to reducing the number of deaths from other infectious diseases such as flu. This also has an impact on the comparison with previous years. The results of the causes of death statistics for 2020 suggest that this was the case. Decreases or increases in the number of deaths from other causes may also have an effect on total deaths. The mortality figures, however, contain no information on the incidence of individual causes of death.
To give the final evaluation of the mortality development, the number of deaths is then put in relation to the actual population in order to consider the ageing process of the population, for instance. The final results which are required for this, including all late reports of deaths, are usually available in the middle of the subsequent year. Information on the relevant results for 2020 is given in press release No 331 of 9 July 2021.
The provisional mortality figures relate to the date of death, not the date on which a death was registered. To date, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) has published the reported Covid-19 deaths by death date until Week 24 of 2022 (only in german). Accordingly, these can currently be compared with the provisional total death figures up to that week. This does not include cases for which no information on the date of death was reported, or for which the information was implausible. The results have not been corrected yet for late reports and are expected to increase accordingly. Further background information on these data can be found on the RKI website.
More information:
The Federal Statistical Office provides more information on the ad hoc evaluation of mortality figures on its “Deaths, life expectancy” page and its “Corona statistics” webpage.
At a press conference on 9 December 2021, the Federal Statistical Office presented more in-depth analyses of mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic and results of causes of death statistics and hospital statistics for 2020. The whole statement and a video are available on the press conference overview page (only in german).
We discuss the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic for population projections also in our “StatGespräch“ podcast on age structure. There we shed some light on the role which life expectancy plays for the population development in Germany.
