Press release No. 305 of 19 July 2022

Stock of orders in manufacturing, May 2022
+0.5% on the previous month (in real terms, calendar and seasonally adjusted)
+16.9% on the same month of the previous year (in real terms, calendar adjusted)

Range of the stock of orders, May 2022
Range of unfilled orders: 8.1 months

WIESBADEN – Based on provisional data, the price adjusted stock of orders in manufacturing in May 2022 increased by a seasonally and calendar adjusted 0.5% on the previous month, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The stock of orders in May 2022 was 16.9% higher than in May 2021. Thereby, unfilled orders in manufacturing reached a new peak since the beginning of the series in the year 2015.

Domestic orders increased by 0.7% and foreign orders by 0.3% in May 2022 compared with April 2022. For manufacturers of intermediate goods, the stock of orders in May 2022 remained unchanged. For manufacturers of capital goods, it rose by 0.4%. In the consumer goods sector, the stock of orders was 3.5% higher than in the previous month.

Although new orders (+0.1%) increased at a significantly slower pace than turnover (+3.2%), the volume of new orders was higher than the volume of turnover in manufacturing in May 2022, as in the preceding months.
The excess demand is likely to be due to the continuing acute shortage of intermediate products. Many enterprises still have difficulties completing their orders as supply chains are interrupted because of the war in Ukraine and distortions persist that have been caused by the Covid-19 crisis, such as the closure of ports in China. As much as 77.2% of the industrial enterprises surveyed complained of bottlenecks and problems in procuring intermediate products and raw materials in May 2022, according to the ifo Institute for Economic Research. The Federal Statistical Office shows the relationship between material shortages and industrial activity in an analysis with continuously updated figures.

Range of the stock of orders still 8.1 months

The (non-calendar and non-seasonally adjusted) range of the stock of orders stood at 8.1 months in the manufacturing sector in May 2022 as in the month before, thus staying at the peak of the series since its start in 2015. For manufacturers of capital goods, the range was 11.9 months as in the previous month, for intermediate goods it was 4.0 months, as in the last month, and for consumer goods it was 3.7 months (April 2022: 3.6 months).

The range indicates for how many months establishments, theoretically, would have to produce goods until all orders on hand are filled - with turnover remaining constant and without any new orders being received. It is calculated as the ratio between the current stock of orders and average turnover of the last 12 months in the respective branch.

Methodological notes:

The differing comparative periods must be taken into account in all press releases on short-term indicators. Short-term economic monitoring focuses on comparisons with the previous month or previous quarter. These reflect short-term economic trends. A comparison with the calendar adjusted previous year is intended to offer a long-term comparison of levels and is not subject to seasonal fluctuations and calendar effects. Due to strong temporary decreases and increases during the current coronavirus and Ukraine war crisis, the results of month-on-month/quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year comparisons may differ considerably.

The stock of orders comprises the total of new orders received by the end of the reference month which have not led to any turnover and have not been cancelled by that time.

The data on unfilled orders are based on the volume index of the stock of orders in manufacturing, seasonally and calendar adjusted by means of the X13 JDemetra+ method. The index of the stock of orders covers only selected branches of manufacturing, as does the index of new orders.

More information:

Results regarding the stock of orders in manufacturing, also by branch, are additionally available on the “Corona statistics” webpage of the Federal Statistical Office together with other indicators which can be used to assess the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.

Detailed data are available in the GENESIS-Online database (42155-0004 indices of the stock of orders and 42113-0001 ranges of the stock of orders).