Press release No. 395 of 19 September 2022

Stock of orders in manufacturing, July 2022
+0.7% on the previous month (in real terms, calendar and seasonally adjusted)
+12.6% on the same month of the previous year (in real terms, calendar adjusted)

Range of the stock of orders, July 2022
Range of unfilled orders: 8.0 months

WIESBADEN – Based on provisional data, the price adjusted stock of orders in manufacturing in July 2022 increased by a seasonally and calendar adjusted 0.7% on the previous month, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The stock of orders in July 2022 was 12.6% higher than in July 2021. Thereby, unfilled orders in manufacturing reached a new peak since the beginning of the series in the year 2015.

In July 2022 compared to June 2022 the domestic stock of orders increased by 0.3% while foreign ones rose by 0.8%. The stock of orders rose by 0.6% for manufacturers of intermediate goods and by 0.7% for manufacturers of capital goods. In the consumer goods sector, the stock of orders was 0.8% lower than in the previous month.

New orders decreased by 1.1% and turnover fell by 1.8%. As in the preceding months, the volume of new orders was slightly higher than the volume of turnover in manufacturing in July 2022. The excess demand is likely to be due to the continuing acute shortage of intermediate products. Many enterprises still have difficulties completing their orders as supply chains are interrupted because of the war in Ukraine and distortions, that have been caused by the Covid-19 crisis, persist. According to the ifo Institute for Economic Research, as much as 73.3% of the industrial enterprises surveyed complained about bottlenecks and problems in procuring intermediate products and raw materials in July 2022. Even though this value slightly decreased compared to June (74.1%), it is still exceptionally high in long-term comparison. The Federal Statistical Office shows the relationship between material shortages and industrial activity in an analysis with continuously updated figures. An analysis on the new production index for energy-intensive industrial branches (only in german) is available on the Industry, manufacturing page of our website.

Range of the stock of orders remains 8.0 months

The (non-calendar and non-seasonally adjusted) range of the stock of orders stood at 8.0 months (June 2022 also: 8.0 months) in the manufacturing sector in July 2022. For manufacturers of capital goods, the range was 11.9 months (June 2022: 11.8 months), for intermediate goods it was 4.0 months (June 2022: 4.1 months), and for consumer goods it was 3.5 months (June 2022 also: 3.5 months).

The range indicates for how many months establishments, theoretically, would have to produce goods until all orders on hand are filled - with turnover remaining constant and without any new orders being received. It is calculated as the ratio between the current stock of orders and average turnover of the last 12 months in the respective branch.

Methodological notes:

The differing comparative periods must be taken into account in all press releases on short-term indicators. Short-term economic monitoring focuses on comparisons with the previous month or previous quarter. These reflect short-term economic trends. A comparison with the calendar adjusted previous year is intended to offer a long-term comparison of levels and is not subject to seasonal fluctuations and calendar effects. The results of month-on-month, quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year comparisons may differ considerably because of the Covid-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine.

The stock of orders comprises the total of new orders received by the end of the reference month which have not led to any turnover and have not been cancelled by that time.

The data on unfilled orders are based on the volume index of the stock of orders in manufacturing, seasonally and calendar adjusted by means of the X13 JDemetra+ method. The index of the stock of orders covers only selected branches of manufacturing, as does the index of new orders.

More information:

Results regarding the stock of orders in manufacturing, also by branch, are additionally available on the “Corona statistics” webpage of the Federal Statistical Office together with other indicators which can be used to assess the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.

Detailed data are available in the GENESIS-Online database (42155-0004 indices of the stock of orders and 42113-0001 ranges of the stock of orders).