Press release No. 434 of 11 October 2022
WIESBADEN – 79,310 people died in Germany in September 2022, according to extrapolated figures of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). This is 9%, or 6,677 cases, above the median of the years 2018 to 2021 for that month. In the previous months, there had been a temporal relationship between heat waves and higher death figures; there were no such heat waves in September. Covid-19 death figures, too, were lower than in the preceding weeks of summer. It is currently not possible to estimate the extent to which other factors contributed to the higher figures in September. The results of the causes of death statistics that become available at a later date may provide additional information on this issue.
| Mortality figures 2022 | Difference from median 2018-2021 | Relative difference from ... | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| median 2018-2021 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |||
| number | % | ||||||
| As at: 10 October 2022 | |||||||
| January | 89,303 | +4,260 | +5 | +5 | +5 | +5 | -16 |
| February | 82,659 | +1,059 | +1 | -4 | +2 | +3 | +1 |
| March | 93,568 | +6,500 | +7 | -13 | +8 | +7 | +14 |
| April | 86,004 | +5,296 | +7 | +8 | +11 | +3 | +5 |
| May | 81,526 | +5,774 | +8 | +9 | +8 | +8 | +1 |
| June | 79,107 | +6,286 | +9 | +14 | +8 | +10 | +3 |
| July | 85,301 | +9,146 | +12 | +13 | +11 | +16 | +11 |
| August | 85,416 | +8,030 | +10 | +9 | +16 | +8 | +12 |
| September | 79,310 | +6,677 | +9 | +14 | +12 | +7 | +2 |
Covid-19 death figures rise slightly in mid September
At present, comparisons of total deaths with the number of Covid-19 deaths reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) by death date can be made up to Week 37 of 2022 (12 to 18 September). So far, 292 Covid-19 deaths have been reported to the RKI with a date of death in that week. The figures were slightly up week on week for the first time since the end of July 2022. In Week 37, total deaths were 8%, or 1,279 cases, above the median of the four preceding years.
Excess mortality down all over Europe in September
The EuroMOMO network for mortality monitoring compares findings about excess mortality across Europe based on its own extrapolation from incomplete data and using its own excess mortality approach. In the weeks of August, mortality figures were classified as “excess” for large parts of Europe, whereas excess figures (low excess or moderate excess) were recorded for all the weeks of September (as of Week 36) only in Germany and Spain.
A look back at summer 2022: mortality figures in western non-city Länder most clearly above the median of previous years
At the Länder level, mortality figures can currently be shown up to Week 36 of 2022 (5 to 11 September). Provisional results thus are not available for all of September yet, whereas Länder results can now be assessed for the summer months of June, July and August. Higher death figures were recorded in all Länder last summer, which was characterised by heat records. Looking at the entire period of June, July and August, the difference from the median of the previous four years ranges between 10% and 15% in the western non-city Länder, between 6% and 11% in the eastern non-city Länder and between 4% and 9% in the city states. At +24%, death figures were particularly high this summer in Week 29 (18 to 24 July) in all of Germany. That was a particularly hot week. However, the median level was exceeded, in part markedly, also in the cooler weeks of the months of June to August and in September.
A graphical overview of the development of mortality figures in all Länder is available on a special page of the Federal Statistical Office’s website.
Methodological notes on the mortality figures for Germany:
The 2022 ad hoc evaluation is based on initial provisional data (raw data). These are simply counts of the cases of death reported by the registrar's offices; the usual data plausibility and completeness checks have not been carried out. The data are still incomplete due to legal regulations concerning the reporting of deaths to the registrar’s offices and differences in the routines of registrar’s offices submitting data for official statistics.
The Federal Statistical Office has developed an estimation model for the extrapolation from incomplete data because of the high relevance of timely mortality figures during the Covid-19 pandemic. This model allows nationwide mortality figures to be provided after just one week or so. The mortality figures of the last nine weeks are extrapolated using the figures submitted so far by the registrar’s offices. Later figures can be slightly higher or lower as a result. The estimate is based on the patterns observed in past reporting delays, some of which differ considerably between regions. It therefore takes roughly four weeks until comparable results for the Länder are available. The ad hoc evaluation is updated every week on the “Deaths, life expectancy” page. New results are available every Tuesday.
Periods of excess mortality within a particular year can be identified on the basis of the provisional death figures. This reveals direct and indirect effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the impact of other factors on the death figures at an early stage. Here we compare the figures with the median of several previous years to account for the varying impact of recurring seasonal effects (such as flu or heat waves). This intra-annual comparison cannot account for the impact of the rising life expectancy and the increasing proportion of older people on the expected number of deaths.
The median has been used for the comparison with previous years since reference month July 2021. The advantage of using this comparative value instead of the arithmetic mean is that it is less prone to specific one-off developments and outliers, such as very strong flu waves or the Covid-19 waves since the beginning of the pandemic. Using the median allows a more accurate evaluation to be made of current death figures. The lowest and highest death figures from the four previous years are not included in the calculation of the median value. It is therefore possible that other comparative values are used for the weekly analysis than for the monthly analysis. In addition, calendar months do not represent the sum of calendar weeks. These are the reasons why the weekly death figures may not sum up to the monthly figures and why they may show different degrees of deviation from the median of the previous years. Press release No 373 of 10 August 2021 contains more information on how the median is calculated and used.
The measures taken to contain the Covid-19 pandemic need to be considered when interpreting the figures from March 2020. In addition to preventing Covid-19 deaths, these measures and changes in behaviour may have contributed to reducing the number of deaths from other infectious diseases such as flu. This also has an impact on the comparison with previous years. The results of the 2020 causes of death statisticssuggest that this was the case. Decreases or increases in the number of deaths due to other causes may also have an effect on total deaths. The mortality figures, however, contain no information on the incidence of individual causes of death.
To give the final evaluation of the mortality development, the number of deaths is then put in relation to the actual population in order to consider the ageing process of the population, for instance. The final results which are required for this, including all late reports of deaths, are usually available in the middle of the subsequent year. Information on the relevant results for the time of the pandemic is given in press release No 313 of 26 July 2022.
The provisional mortality figures relate to the date of death, not the date on which a death was registered. To date, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) has published the reported Covid-19 deaths by death date until Week 37 of 2022 Accordingly, these can currently be compared with the provisional total death figures up to that week. This does not include cases for which no information on the date of death was reported, or for which the information was implausible. The results have not been corrected yet for late reports and are expected to increase accordingly. Further background information on these data can be found on the RKI website.
More information:
The Federal Statistical Office provides more information on the ad hoc evaluation of mortality figures on its “Deaths, life expectancy” page and its “Corona statistics” webpage.
We discuss the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic for population projections also in our “StatGespräch“ podcast on age structure. There we shed some light on the role which life expectancy plays for the population development in Germany.
