Press release No. 483 of 17 November 2022

Stock of orders in manufacturing, September 2022
-0.9% on the previous month (in real terms, calendar and seasonally adjusted)
+6.9% on the same month of the previous year (in real terms, calendar adjusted)

Range of the stock of orders, September 2022
Range of unfilled orders: 7.7 months

WIESBADEN – Based on provisional data, the price adjusted stock of orders in manufacturing in September 2022 decreased by a seasonally and calendar adjusted 0.9% on the previous month, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).

This is the first time that the stock of orders declined significantly after having increased almost continuously by a total of 37.6% from May 2020 to August 2022. When a high demand for industrial products coincided with supply chain problems after the first phase of the Covid-19 crisis, establishments had not been able to complete all incoming orders so that unfilled orders were piling up.

This trend does not continue at present. New orders in manufacturing declined by 4.0% in September 2022 compared with August 2022 while turnover rose slightly by 0.2% against the backdrop of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and the energy crisis, among others. New orders in nominal terms were thus lower than the turnover of establishments for the first time since May 2020. This means that more orders were completed than newly received. However, the stock of orders still is on a very high level despite the latest decline. The stock of orders was a calendar-adjusted 6.9% higher in September 2022 than in September 2021.

In September 2022, compared to August 2022, the domestic stock of orders slightly decreased by 0.1% and the foreign one by 1.3%. The stock of orders fell by 1.1% for manufacturers of intermediate goods and went down by 0.9% for manufacturers of capital goods. In the consumer goods sector, the stock of orders was 0.4% higher than in the previous month.

Aside from high energy prices, many manufacturing companies still have difficulties completing their orders due to the shortage of intermediate products. According to the ifo Institute for Economic Research, as much as 65.8% of the industrial enterprises surveyed complained about bottlenecks and problems in procuring intermediate products and raw materials in September 2022. The Federal Statistical Office shows the relationship between material shortages and industrial activity in an analysis with continuously updated figures. An analysis about the Production Index for energy-intensive industries can be found (in german) under “Economy/Short-term indicators” on the webpage of the Federal Statistical Office.

Range of the stock of orders falls to 7.7 months

The range of the stock of orders was down to 7.7 months in September 2022 after standing at a minimum of 8.0 in each month since March 2022 (for the last time in August 2022: 8.0 months). The range was 11.4 months for producers of investment goods (August 2022: 11.8 months), 3.8 months for intermediate goods (August 2022: 3.9 months) and 3.5 months for consumer goods (August 2022: 3.6 months).

The range indicates for how many months establishments, theoretically, would have to produce goods until all orders on hand are filled - with turnover remaining constant and without any new orders being received. It is calculated as the ratio between the current stock of orders and average turnover of the last 12 months in the respective branch.

Methodological notes:

The differing comparative periods must be taken into account in all press releases on short-term indicators. Short-term economic monitoring focuses on comparisons with the previous month or previous quarter. These reflect short-term economic trends. A comparison with the calendar adjusted previous year is intended to offer a long-term comparison of levels and is not subject to seasonal fluctuations and calendar effects. The results of month-on-month, quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year comparisons June differ considerably because of the Covid-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine.

The stock of orders comprises the total of new orders received by the end of the reference month which have not led to any turnover and have not been cancelled by that time.

The data on unfilled orders are based on the volume index of the stock of orders in manufacturing, seasonally and calendar adjusted by means of the X13 JDemetra+ method. The index of the stock of orders covers only selected branches of manufacturing, as does the index of new orders.

More information:

Results regarding the stock of orders in manufacturing, also by branch, are additionally available on the “Corona statistics” webpage of the Federal Statistical Office together with other indicators which can be used to assess the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.

Detailed data are available in the GENESIS-Online database (42155-0004 indices of the stock of orders and 42113-0001 ranges of the stock of orders).