Press release No. 547 of 19 December 2022
Stock of orders in manufacturing, October 2022
+0.3% on the previous month (in real terms, calendar and seasonally adjusted)
+5.8% on the same month of the previous year (in real terms, calendar adjusted)
Range of the stock of orders, October 2022
Range of unfilled orders: 7.6 months
WIESBADEN – The real (price adjusted) stock of orders in manufacturing was 0.3% higher in October 2022 than in September 2022 on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, according to provisional results of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The stock of orders still is on a very high level despite a slight decrease in September 2022. Compared with October 2021, the stock of orders was up a calendar adjusted 5.8% in October 2022.
Compared to September 2022, the domestic stock of orders increased by 0.2%, the foreign by 0.3%. The stock of orders fell by 0.6% for manufacturers of intermediate goods and went up by 0.4% for manufacturers of capital goods. In the consumer goods sector, the stock of orders was 0.7% higher than in the previous month.
Disrupted supply chains as a result of the war in Ukraine and ongoing distortions caused by the Corona crisis continue to cause problems in processing orders. According to a survey by the ifo Institute for Economic Research, more than half of industrial companies continue to complain about bottlenecks and problems in the procurement of intermediate products and raw materials. The relationship between material shortages and industrial activity is presented by the German Federal Statistical Office in an analysis with continuously updated figures. An analysis about the Production Index for energy-intensive industries can be found (only in german) under “Economy/Short-term indicators” on the webpage of the Federal Statistical Office.
Range of the stock of orders falls to 7.6 months
The range of the stock of orders was down to 7.6 months in October 2022 (September 2022: 7.7 months). The range was 11.3 months for producers of capital goods (September 2022: 11.4 months), 3.7 months for intermediate goods (September 2022: 3.8 months) and 3.5 months for consumer goods (September 2022: also 3.5 months).
The range indicates for how many months establishments, theoretically, would have to produce goods until all orders on hand are filled - with turnover remaining constant and without any new orders being received. It is calculated as the ratio between the current stock of orders and average turnover of the last 12 months in the respective branch.
Methodological notes:
The differing comparative periods must be taken into account in all press releases on short-term indicators. Short-term economic monitoring focuses on month-on-month comparisons of seasonally and calendar adjusted figures. These reflect short-term economic trends. Year-on-year comparisons of calendar adjusted results permit long-term comparisons of levels and are not influenced by seasonal fluctuations and calendar effects. The results of month-on-month and year-on-year comparisons may differ considerably because of the Covid-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine.
The stock of orders comprises the sum of new orders at the end of the reporting month that have not yet resulted in sales by that date and that have not been canceled. The rates of change are based on the price-adjusted index of the stock of orders in the manufacturing sector. The average result in 2015 is used as the basis for the index and is set at 100 index points (2015 = 100). Seasonal and calendar adjustment was performed using the X13 JDemetra+ method. The order backlog is recorded and evaluated based on the German Classification of Economic Activities, 2008 edition (WZ 2008). Like new orders, the stock of orders is only recorded in selected branches of the manufacturing industry.
More information:
Detailed data are available in the GENESIS-Online database (42155-0004 indices of the stock of orders and 42113-0001 ranges of the stock of orders).
