Press release No. 196 of 19 May 2023

Stock of orders in manufacturing, March 2023
-1.3% on the previous month (seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-1.2% on the same month of the previous year (calendar adjusted)

Range of the stock of orders
7.4 months

WIESBADEN – The real (price adjusted) stock of orders in manufacturing was 1.3% lower in March 2023 than in February 2023 on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, according to provisional results of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). In a quarterly comparison, the stock of orders decreased by 1.0% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the fourth quarter of 2022.

 

The negative development of the stock of orders is particularly due to the decline in the sector of manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers. This sector went down a seasonally and calendar adjusted 2.5% on the previous month. In contrast, the stock of orders in the manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment, went up 2.5%.

Unfilled foreign orders decreased by 1.4% in March 2023, while the stock of domestic orders fell by 1.2% compared to February 2023.

The stock of orders declined by 1.4% for manufacturers of capital goods and by 1.3% for manufacturers of intermediate goods. In the consumer goods sector, the stock of orders was 0.3% higher than in the previous month.

Overall, the stock of orders was a calendar adjusted 1.2% lower than in March 2022.

Range of the stock of orders decreased to 7.4 months

The range of the stock of orders fell to 7.4 months in March 2023 (February 2023: 7.5 months). The range declined for producers of capital goods to 10.5 months (February 2023: 10.7 months), remained unchanged for producers of intermediate goods by 3.8 months and it rose slightly for producers of consumer goods to 3.6 months (February 2023: 3,5 months).

The range indicates for how many months companies would theoretically have to produce goods until all orders on hand are fulfilled – assuming constant turnover and no new orders being received. It is calculated as the ratio of the current stock of orders and average turnover of the last 12 months in the respective branch.

Methodological notes:

The differing comparative periods must be taken into account in all press releases on short-term indicators. Short-term economic monitoring focuses on month-on-month comparisons of seasonally and calendar adjusted figures. These reflect short-term economic trends. Year-on-year comparisons of calendar adjusted results permit long-term comparisons of levels and are not influenced by seasonal fluctuations and calendar effects. The results of month-on-month and year-on-year comparisons may differ considerably because of the Covid-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine.

The stock of orders comprises the sum of new orders at the end of the reporting month that have not yet resulted in sales by that date and that have not been cancelled. The rates of change are based on the price-adjusted index of the stock of orders in the manufacturing sector. The average result in 2015 is used as the basis of the index and is set at 100 index points (2015 = 100). Seasonal and calendar adjustment was performed using the X13 JDemetra+ method. The order backlog is recorded and evaluated based on the German Classification of Economic Activities, 2008 edition (WZ 2008). Like new orders, the stock of orders is only recorded in selected branches of the manufacturing industry.

More information:

Detailed data are available in the GENESIS-Online database (42155-0004 indices of the stock of orders and 42113-0001 ranges of the stock of orders).

A dossier on the Short-term indicators page of the Federal Statistical Office's website provides an analysis of the relationship between material shortages, new orders, production and prices in industry. Detailed information on production in energy-intensive industrial branches is available on the “Industry, manufacturing” page.

Detailed information on production index for energy-intensive industrial branches (only in German) is available on the "Industry, manufacturing" page.