Press release No. 047 of 6 February 2024
New orders in manufacturing:
December 2023 (in real terms, provisional):
+8.9% on the previous month (seasonally and calendar adjusted)
+2.7% on the same month a year earlier (calendar adjusted)
November 2023 (in real terms, revised):
0.0% on the previous month (seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-4.7% on the same month a year earlier (calendar adjusted)
WIESBADEN – Real (price adjusted) new orders in manufacturing were up 8.9% in December 2023 month on month after seasonal and calendar adjustment, according to provisional figures of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that new orders were 0.1% higher in the period from October to December 2023 than in the previous three months. New orders excluding large-scale orders were down 2.2% in December 2023 compared with the previous month. After revision of the provisional data, new orders in November 2023 were unchanged from October 2023 (provisional figure +0.3%). In 2023 as a whole, new orders were down 5.9% compared with the previous year, after adjustment for calendar effects. By contrast, the manufacture of other transport equipment, which includes the manufacture of aircraft, ships and trains, registered an increase in new orders.
Within manufacturing, the sharp increase in December 2023 is attributable to a very high volume of large-scale orders in a range of branches. In particular, an exceptionally large number of aircraft were ordered. In the “manufacture of other transport equipment” sector (aircraft, ships, trains etc.), new orders received in December 2023 more than doubled those received in the previous month (+110.9%). In addition, large-scale orders in the manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment (+18.0%) and the manufacture of electrical equipment (+38.7%) had a positive impact on overall performance. By contrast, new orders declined in the automotive industry (-14.7%), the manufacture of machinery and equipment (-5.3%) and the chemical industry (-3.7%), which are major sectors.
In December 2023, new orders were up on the previous month in both the capital goods sector (+10.9%) and the intermediate goods sector (+8.3%). A drop of 1.3% was recorded in the consumer goods sector.
Domestic orders rose by 9.4%. Foreign orders increased by 8.5%, with new orders from the euro area growing by 34.5% and orders from the rest of the world decreasing by 7.5%.
2023 as a whole: orders in the manufacture of other transport equipment up over a third compared with 2022
In 2023 as a whole, new orders in the manufacturing sector were 5.9% lower in calendar-adjusted terms than in the previous year, with new orders for intermediate goods registering a sharper decline than new orders for capital goods. Intermediate goods include chemical products, metals, paper or electrical components, for instance. Machinery, transport equipment and production facilities are examples of capital goods.
New orders for intermediate goods declined considerably especially in the 1st half of 2023 compared with the 1st half of 2022. In the second half of 2023, new orders were down only slightly from the same period a year earlier. The chemical industry even saw a slightly positive development of new orders in the second half of 2023. After adjustment for calendar effects, new orders for intermediate goods were 8.7% lower in the whole of 2023 than in 2022.
In the capital goods sector, new orders dropped 3.8% in 2023 from 2022, with above-average declines in the two largest industrial sectors, the automotive industry (-4.5%) and the “manufacture of machinery and equipment” sector (-11.9%). The “manufacture of other transport equipment” sector, by contrast, benefitted from large-scale orders with exceptionally high order volumes, especially in the months of February, June and December 2023. As a consequence, new orders rose by more than one third (+34.7%) in this sector in 2023 compared with the previous year. The manufacture of other transport equipment was the only manufacturing sector which recorded an increase in new orders.
Turnover in December 2023 down 0.1% on the previous month
According to provisional figures, real turnover in manufacturing (seasonally and calendar adjusted) was down 0.1% in December 2023 from the previous month. The calendar adjusted turnover was 3.1% lower than in December 2022. After revision of the provisional data, there was a decrease of 0.7% in November 2023 from October 2023; the provisional result was confirmed.
Turnover in the whole of 2023 was 0.3% higher than a year earlier, after adjustment for calendar effects.
Methodological notes:
The differing comparative periods must be taken into account in all press releases on short-term indicators. Short-term economic monitoring focuses on comparisons of seasonally and calendar adjusted figures with those of the previous month or quarter. These reflect short-term economic trends. Year-on-year comparisons of calendar adjusted results enable long-term comparisons of levels and are not influenced by seasonal fluctuations or calendar effects. The results of month-on-month, quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year comparisons may differ considerably due to the Covid-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine.
New orders and turnover in manufacturing are recorded and evaluated in accordance with the Classification of Economic Activities, 2008 edition (WZ 2008). Information on new orders is collected only in selected branches (only in German) of manufacturing. The rates of change are based on the price adjusted indices of new orders and of turnover in manufacturing. The average figure for 2015 is used as the basis of the index and set to 100 index points (2015 = 100). The X13 JDemetra+ method was used for calendar and seasonal adjustment.
The manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (Division 29 of WZ) is referred to as the “automotive industry” in this press release. The manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (Division 20 of WZ) is referred to as the “pharmaceutical industry” in this press release.
More information:
Detailed data and long time series are available in the GENESIS-Online database (42151-0004 indices of new orders, 42151-0008 indices of new orders excluding large-scale orders, and 42152-0004 turnover indices).
A dossier on the "Short-term indicators" page of the Federal Statistical Office's (Destatis) website provides an analysis of the relationship between material shortages, new orders, production and prices in industry. Detailed information on production in energy-intensive industrial branches (only in German) is available on the "Industry, manufacturing" page.
Information on new orders in manufacturing is also available on Dashboard Germany at www.dashboard-deutschland.de (only in German). This data portal of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) combines up-to-date indicators from official statistics producers and other data providers on the topics of the economy, finance, health and mobility. The portal also contains the Economic Pulse Monitor tool (Pulsmesser für die Wirtschaft) (only in German) for real-time economic monitoring.
