Press release No. 086 of 7 March 2024

New orders in manufacturing:
January 2024 (in real terms, provisional):
-11.3% on the previous month (seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-6.0% on the same month a year earlier (calendar adjusted) 

December 2023 (in real terms, revised):
+12.0% on the previous month (seasonally and calendar adjusted)
+6.6% on the same month a year earlier (calendar adjusted)

WIESBADEN – Real (price adjusted) new orders in manufacturing were down 11.3% in January 2024 month on month after seasonal and calendar adjustment, according to provisional figures of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). After revision of the provisional results, this large decline was preceded by a 12.0% increase in December 2023 from November 2023 due to large-scale orders (provisional figure: +8.9%). The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that new orders were 2.3% higher in the period from November 2023 to January 2024 than in the previous three months. The relatively large revision of December 2023 is based on late data deliveries by establishments of several economic branches.

The sharp decline in January 2024 is attributable to the high volume of large-scale orders in December 2023. In January 2024, the volume of large-scale orders was back to an average level. This base effect is particularly pronounced in the manufacture of electrical equipment (-33.2%), other transport equipment (in particular, aircraft, ships, trains; -27.3%) and fabricated metal products (-14.5%). New orders in the manufacture of machinery and equipment dropped by 4.7% in January 2024 after having fallen by as much as 4.9% in December 2023 from a month earlier. By contrast, new orders in the automotive industry were up 4.2% in January 2024 following a 5.8% decline in the month before.

In January 2024, new orders were down on the previous month in all three major groups, that is in the capital goods sector (-13.1%), the intermediate goods sector (-9.3%) and the consumer goods sector (-5.7%).

Foreign orders fell by 11.4%, with orders from the euro area declining by 25.7%. By contrast, orders from outside the euro area rose by 1.6%. Domestic orders declined by 11.2%.

Turnover in January 2024 down 2.0% on the previous month

According to provisional figures, real turnover in manufacturing (seasonally and calendar adjusted) in January 2024 was down 2.0% on the previous month. The calendar adjusted turnover was 3.5% lower than in January 2023. After revision of the provisional data, there was an increase of 1.3% in December 2023 from November 2023 (provisional figure: -0.1%). The revision in December 2023 is due to late reporting by establishments in several branches of economic activity.

Rebasing the indices of new orders and turnover to the year 2021

As of reference month January 2024, the indices of new orders and turnover in manufacturing have been rebased from 2015 to the year 2021. The rebasing comprises the following aspects: 

• The indices now refer to 2021, the new base year. The indices therefore put the volume of new orders/volume of turnover in the particular reporting period in relation to the average in 2021. The abbreviated form of the base year, as used in tables and graphics, is changed from "2015 = 100" to "2021 = 100".
• The weighting structure was updated when the base year was changed. The current weights of the indices now refer to the new orders structure/turnover structure in manufacturing in 2021 instead of 2015. The weights for periods prior to 2021 remain unchanged. The index values as of January 2021 have been recalculated with the updated weights for base year 2021. By contrast, the index values up to December 2020 inclusive were only rebased in purely mathematical terms, i.e. they are based on the original weights for base year 2015. The new weighting schemes are available in the “Tables” section of the “Industry, manufacturing” page of the Federal Statistical Office’s website.

No methodological changes were implemented for either index in connection with the rebasing. General information on the rebasing methodology is provided in the "Rebasing the short-term indices for industry to the year 2015" and "Umstellung des Produktionsindex im Produzierenden Gewerbe auf das Basisjahr 2021" articles in the "WISTA – Wirtschaft und Statistik" journal, editions 2/2018 and 2/2024, respectively. The latter is available in German only. An overview of reference year rebasing in the individual sets of short-term economic statistics is provided on the "Short-term economic indicators" page. 

Methodological notes:

The differing comparative periods must be taken into account in all press releases on short-term indicators. Short-term economic monitoring focuses on comparisons of seasonally and calendar adjusted figures with those of the previous month or quarter. These reflect short-term economic trends. Year-on-year comparisons of calendar adjusted results enable long-term comparisons of levels and are not influenced by seasonal fluctuations or calendar effects. The results of month-on-month, quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year comparisons may differ considerably due to the Covid-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine.

New orders and turnover in manufacturing are recorded and evaluated in accordance with the Classification of Economic Activities, 2008 edition (WZ 2008). Information on new orders is collected only in selected branches of manufacturing. The rates of change are based on the price adjusted indices of new orders and of turnover in manufacturing. The average figure for 2021 is used as the basis of the index and set to 100 index points (2021 = 100). The X13 JDemetra+ method was used for calendar and seasonal adjustment.

The manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (Division 29 of WZ) is referred to as the “automotive industry” in this press release.

More information:

Detailed data and long time series are available in the GENESIS-Online database (42151-0004 indices of new orders, 42151-0008 indices of new orders excluding large-scale orders, and 42152-0004 turnover indices).

A dossier on the "Short-term indicators" page of the Federal Statistical Office's (Destatis) website provides an analysis of the relationship between material shortages, new orders, production and prices in industry. Detailed information on production in energy-intensive industrial branches (only in German) is available on the "Industry, manufacturing" page.

Information on new orders in manufacturing is also available on Dashboard Germany at www.dashboard-deutschland.de (only in German). This data portal of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) combines up-to-date indicators from official statistics producers and other data providers on the topics of the economy, finance, health and mobility. The portal also contains the Economic Pulse Monitor tool (Pulsmesser für die Wirtschaft) (only in German) for real-time economic monitoring.