Press release No. 112 of 20 March 2024

Stock of orders in manufacturing, January 2024
-0.9%, in real terms, on the previous month (seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-5.2%, in real terms, on the same month a year earlier (calendar adjusted)

Range of the stock of orders
6.9 months

WIESBADEN – The real (price adjusted) stock of orders in manufacturing was down 0.9% in January 2024 month on month after seasonal and calendar adjustment, according to provisional figures of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The calendar adjusted stock of orders was 5.2% lower in January 2024 than in January 2023.

 

Declining orders in the automotive industry (-3.5% on the previous month on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis) and in the manufacture of machinery and equipment (-1.2%) contributed substantially to the negative development of the stock of orders in January 2024. By contrast, the development in the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (+1.8%) had a positive effect on the stock of orders.

Unfilled domestic orders in January 2024 were down 1.5% on December 2023 and the stock of foreign orders was down 0.4%.

Producers of capital goods saw the stock of orders decline by 1.0%. The stock of orders increased by 0.1% in the intermediate goods and consumer goods sectors.

Range of the stock of orders down to 6.9 months

Compared with the previous month, the range of the stock of orders fell to 6.9 months in January 2024 (December 2023: 7.0 months). The range of the stock of orders dropped to 9.2 months for producers of capital goods (December 2023: 9.4 months). It rose to 4.0 months for intermediate goods producers (December 2023: 3.9 months) and increased to 3.5 months for consumer goods producers (December 2023: 3.4 months).

Assuming turnover remains constant and no new orders are received, the range indicates the number of months local units would, in theory, have to produce goods in order to fill all orders on hand. It is calculated as the ratio between the current stock of orders and average turnover of the last twelve months in the respective branch.

Index of the stock of orders rebased to the year 2021

As of reference month January 2024, the index of the stock of orders in manufacturing has been rebased from 2015 to the year 2021. The rebasing comprises the following aspects:

• The index now refers to 2021, the new base year. The index therefore puts the stock of orders in the particular reporting period in relation to the average in 2021. The abbreviated form of the base year, as used in tables and graphics, is changed from "2015 = 100" to "2021 = 100".
• The weighting structure was updated when the base year was changed. The current weights of the indices now refer to the structure of the stock of orders in manufacturing in 2021 instead of 2015. The weights for periods prior to 2021 remain unchanged. The index values as of January 2021 have been recalculated with the updated weights for base year 2021. By contrast, the index values up to December 2020 inclusive were only rebased in purely mathematical terms, i.e. they are based on the original weights for base year 2015. The new weighting schemes (only in German) are available in the "Tables" section of the "Industry, manufacturing" page of the Federal Statistical Office’s website.

No methodological changes were implemented for the index of the stock of orders in connection with the rebasing. General information on the rebasing methodology is provided in the "Rebasing the short-term indices for industry to the year 2015" and "Umstellung des Produktionsindex im Produzierenden Gewerbe auf das Basisjahr 2021" articles in the "WISTA – Wirtschaft und Statistik" journal, issues 2/2018 and 2/2024, respectively. The latter is available in German only. An overview (only in German) of reference year rebasing in the individual sets of short-term economic statistics is provided on the "Short-term economic indicators" page.

Methodological notes:

The differing comparative periods must be taken into account in all press releases on short-term indicators. Short-term economic monitoring focuses on comparisons of seasonally and calendar adjusted figures with those of the previous month. These reflect short-term economic trends. Year-on-year comparisons of calendar adjusted results enable long-term comparisons of levels and are not influenced by seasonal fluctuations or calendar effects. The results of month-on-month and year-on-year comparisons may differ considerably because of the Covid-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine.

The stock of orders comprises all new orders received by the end of the reference month which have neither generated any turnover nor been cancelled by that time. The rates of change are based on the price adjusted index of the stock of orders in manufacturing. The average figure for 2021 is used as the basis of the index and set to 100 index points (2021 = 100). The X13 JDemetra+ method was used for calendar and seasonal adjustment. The stock of orders is covered and evaluated in accordance with the Classification of Economic Activities, 2008 edition (WZ 2008). In the process, information on the stock of orders and on new orders is only collected in selected branches of manufacturing.

The manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (Division 29 of WZ) is referred to as the “automotive industry” in this press release.

More information:

Detailed data are available from the GENESIS-Online database (42155-0004 indices of the stock of orders and 42113-0001 Ranges of the stock of orders).

Detailed information on production in energy-intensive industrial branches (only in German) is available on the "Industry, manufacturing" page.