Press release No. 159 of 18 April 2024
Stock of orders in manufacturing, February 2024
-0.2%, in real terms, on the previous month (seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-5.8%, in real terms, on the same month a year earlier (calendar adjusted)
Range of the stock of orders
7.0 months
WIESBADEN – The real (price adjusted) stock of orders in manufacturing was down 0.2% in February 2024 month on month after seasonal and calendar adjustment, according to provisional figures of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The calendar adjusted stock of orders was 5.8% lower in February 2024 than in February 2023.
The decline in the stock of orders in February 2024 was mainly attributable to the development in the automotive industry. In this sector, the stock of orders was down 5.1% from January 2024 after seasonal and calendar adjustment and declined for the 13th month in succession. Due to Covid-related problems in supply chains, the stock of orders in the automotive industry increased very strongly especially in 2021. With new orders declining sharply and production increasing (see press releases no. 139 of 5 April 2024 and no. 141 of 8 April 2024), the stock of orders in February 2024 dropped to the level recorded at the beginning of 2021. When the entire manufacturing sector is considered, however, the level of the stock of orders was still considerably higher in February 2024 than at the start of 2021. The development in the “manufacture of other transport equipment” sector (aircraft, ships, trains; +1.1%) had a positive impact on the stock of orders in manufacturing in February 2024.
Unfilled domestic orders in February 2024 were up 0.6% on January 2024, whereas the stock of foreign orders was down 0.7%.
Producers of capital goods saw the stock of orders decline by 0.3%. The stock of orders was down 0.1% for intermediate goods and 0.7% for consumer goods.
Range of the stock of orders increased to 7.0 months
Compared with the previous month, the range of the stock of orders rose to 7.0 months in February 2024 (January 2024: 6.9 months). The range increased to 9.3 months (January 2024: 9.2 months) for producers of capital goods. The range was unchanged for intermediate goods producers (4.0 months) and also remained the same for consumer goods producers (3.5 months).
Assuming turnover remains constant and no new orders are received, the range indicates the number of months local units would, in theory, have to produce goods in order to fill all orders on hand. It is calculated as the ratio between the current stock of orders and average turnover of the last twelve months in the respective branch.
Methodological notes:
The differing comparative periods must be taken into account in all press releases on short-term indicators. Short-term economic monitoring focuses on comparisons of seasonally and calendar adjusted figures with those of the previous month. These reflect short-term economic trends. Year-on-year comparisons of calendar adjusted results enable long-term comparisons of levels and are not influenced by seasonal fluctuations or calendar effects. The results of month-on-month and year-on-year comparisons may differ considerably because of the Covid-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine.
The stock of orders comprises all new orders received by the end of the reference month which have neither generated any turnover nor been cancelled by that time. The rates of change are based on the price adjusted index of the stock of orders in manufacturing. The average figure for 2021 is used as the basis of the index and set to 100 index points (2021 = 100). The X13 JDemetra+ method was used for calendar and seasonal adjustment. The stock of orders is covered and evaluated in accordance with the Classification of Economic Activities, 2008 edition (WZ 2008). In the process, information on the stock of orders and information on new orders is only collected in selected branches (only in German) of manufacturing.
For better readability, this press release uses a short form for the names of some economic branches which differs from the designations in the “Classification of Economic Activities (2008 edition). An overview of these short forms (only in German) is provided on the “Industry, manufacturing” page on the website of the Federal Statistical Office.
More information:
Detailed data are available from the GENESIS-Online database (42155-0004 indices of the stock of orders and 42113-0001 Ranges of the stock of orders).
Detailed information on production in energy-intensive industrial branches (only in German) is available on the "Industry, manufacturing" page.
