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Press release 056 / 2016-02-23: Detailed gross domestic product results for the 4th quarter of 2015

WIESBADEN – The German economy continued its moderate growth at the end of 2015. As the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) already reported in its first release of 12 February 2016, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.3% – upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustment – in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared with the previous quarter. The economic situation in Germany in 2015 was characterised by solid and steady growth (+0.3% in the third and fourth quarter each and +0.4% in each of the first two quarters). For the whole year of 2015, this was an average increase of +1.7% (calendar adjusted: +1.4%). The provisional result released in January 2016 has largely been confirmed.


 

Gross domestic product, price-adjusted, chain-linked
(figures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects using Census X-12-ARIMA)
Changes on a quarter earlier:
20142015
1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr
+0.7–0.1+0.2+0.6+0.4+0.4+0.3+0.3

The quarter-on-quarter comparison (upon adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations) shows that positive contributions again came mainly from domestic demand. General government final consumption expenditure was markedly up by 1.0%, while household final consumption expenditure again rose slightly by 0.2%. A positive development was also observed for capital formation. Especially gross fixed capital formation in construction was up (+2.2%) on the third quarter of 2015. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment increased, too (+1.0%). However, that increase was largely attributable to general government, while gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment not attributable to general government recorded a slight decline. On the whole, domestic uses rose by 0.8% (upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustment) compared with the third quarter of 2015.

According to provisional calculations, the development of foreign trade had a downward effect on growth because exports of goods declined by 1.7% on the previous quarter. Imports of goods decreased, too, though less strongly (–0.6%). Consequently, the balance of exports and imports of goods and services as a whole, in arithmetical terms, had a negative effect on GDP growth (–0.5 percentage points). 

The following information refers to the year-on-year comparison: 

Measured by unadjusted figures, economic growth accelerated year on year since summer. The price adjusted GDP rose by 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2015, following increases of 1.7% in the third quarter of 2015 and 1.6% in the second quarter of 2015. However, in the last quarter of 2015 there were two working days more than a year earlier, which produced an above-average calendar effect. Consequently, the calendar adjusted increase (+1.3%) was slightly smaller than in the third (+1.7%) and second quarter (+1.6%).

 

Gross domestic product, price-adjusted, chain-linked (unadjusted figures)
Changes on a year earlier:
20142015
1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr
+2.6+1.0+1.2+1.6+1.3+1.6+1.7+2.1

The economic performance in the fourth quarter of 2015 was achieved by 43.4 million persons in employment, which was an increase of 412,000, or 1.0%, on a year earlier. 

Overall labour productivity (price adjusted gross domestic product per hour worked by persons in employment) was slightly above the level of the previous year (+0.1%) according to provisional calculations. Measured per person in employment, it rose by 1.2%. 

In the year-on-year comparison, too, contributions to growth came from domestic demand in the fourth quarter of 2015. Household final consumption expenditure increased by 1.6%, while government final consumption expenditure was up by as much as 2.7%. Government final consumption expenditure includes, among other things, goods and services provided by general government to refugees free of charge. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment rose a price adjusted 6.3% on the fourth quarter of 2014. Gross fixed capital formation in construction grew by 3.3% and a particularly significant year-on-year increase was recorded for gross fixed capital formation in dwellings. Capital formation in other buildings and structures rose, too, with the increase being higher in industrial construction than in public construction. GDP growth was only slowed down by a reduction of inventories (–0.2 percentage points). On the whole, domestic uses were up by 2.3% on a year earlier. The balance of exports and imports did not provide any contribution to growth in a year-on-year comparison. In price adjusted terms, exports of goods and services rose by 5.0% compared with the previous year. There was however a slightly larger increase in imports (+5.8%) in the same period. Consequently, the balance of exports and imports did not provide any contribution to year-on-year GDP growth in arithmetic terms.

On the production side of the gross domestic product, the price adjusted gross value added was higher in almost all economic sectors in the last quarter of 2015 than a year earlier. The largest increases were recorded for construction (+3.6%), information and communication (+3.8%) and business services (+3.5%). In addition, the other service industries – except for financial and insurance activities – and manufacturing (+2.1%) increased their performance in a year-on-year comparison. On the whole, the price adjusted gross value added of all economic sectors was up by 1.9% on the fourth quarter of 2014. 

At current prices, the gross domestic product increased by 4.4% and the gross national income by 4.2% in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared with the fourth quarter of 2014. Net national income at factor costs, consisting of compensation of employees (+4.2%) and property and entrepreneurial income (+4.6%), rose by a total of 4.3%, according to first provisional calculations. Gross wages and salaries of employees increased by 4.4% and net wages and salaries by as much as 4.6%. The average wages and salaries per employee did not rise that much (+3.0% in gross terms and +3.2% in net terms) because the number of employees went up as well (+1.3%) compared with the same quarter one year earlier. The disposable income of households was up by 2.5%, with this rise being slightly higher than that of household final consumption expenditure at current prices (+2.3%). 

In addition to calculating first data for the fourth quarter of 2015, the Federal Statistical Office revised the national accounting results published previously for the first three quarters of 2015 and the year of 2015. As reported in the first release of 12 February 2016, this resulted in slight corrections of the rates of change of the price adjusted gross domestic product. Significant corrections were however made regarding individual GDP components. As is usual for seasonally and calendar adjusted series, modified results may also appear in the whole time series from 1991 onwards.

Gross domestic product
 Unadjusted figuresFigures according to
Census X-12-ARIMA,
price-adjusted, chain-linked
At current pricesPrice-adjusted, chain-linkedSeasonally and
calendar-adjusted
Calendar-
adjusted
EUR billion% 12010 = 100% 12010 = 100% 2% 1 3
1 Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year in %.
2 Change on the previous year or quarter in %.
3 As for years, the calendar-adjusted values equal the seasonally and calendar-adjusted values (except for differences due to rounding).
qtr = quarter
20142,915.653.4106.061.6106.211.61.6
20153,025.903.8107.851.7107.751.41.4
20141st qtr715.914.5105.272.6105.990.72.4
2nd qtr716.852.8104.811.0105.93–0.11.4
3rd qtr742.512.9108.201.2106.130.21.1
4th qtr740.383.2105.951.6106.780.61.4
20151st qtr739.443.3106.601.3107.210.41.2
2nd qtr743.423.7106.501.6107.630.41.6
3rd qtr770.123.7110.081.7107.930.31.7
4th qtr772.924.4108.212.1108.220.31.3

Use of the gross domestic product
Unadjusted figures 
 2015
Year1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4 th qtr
At current prices
EUR bn.
Consumption expenditure2,220.078531.715548.651560.512579.200
Finalconsumption expenditure of households and NPISHs1,633.388390.404406.295416.489420.200
Government final consumption expenditure586.690141.311142.356144.023159.000
Gross capital formation569.724151.373131.762156.224130.365
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)606.174136.839152.552156.194160.589
GFCF in machinery and equipment200.06945.18949.05948.39957.422
GFCF in construction297.65365.54976.85380.81774.434
GFCF in other products108.45226.10126.64026.97828.733
Domestic uses2,789.802683.088680.413716.736709.565
Exports1,419.606342.950355.335358.254363.067
Imports1,183.508286.598292.328304.870299.712
Gross domestic product (GDP)3,025.900739.440743.420770.120772.920
Price-adjusted, chain-linked
Change on the previous year in %
Consumption expenditure2.12.31.92.21.9
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs1.92.31.82.11.6
Government final consumption expenditure2.42.22.32.32.7
Gross capital formation–0.1–1.5–3.41.03.9
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)2.20.71.52.24.2
GFCF in machinery and equipment4.83.93.45.46.3
GFCF in construction0.3–2.2–0.10.23.3
GFCF in other products2.72.72.72.82.7
Domestic uses1.61.40.81.92.3
Exports5.44.86.55.25.0
Imports5.85.85.46.25.8
Gross domestic product (GDP)1.71.31.61.72.1
Memorandum item:
GDP per person in employment0.90.60.90.91.2
GDP per hour worked by persons in employment0.60.60.80.80.1
Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP in percentage points
Consumption expenditure1.51.61.41.61.5
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs1.11.21.01.20.9
Government final consumption expenditure0.50.40.40.40.6
Gross capital formation0.0–0.3–0.70.20.6
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)0.40.10.30.50.9
GFCF in machinery and equipment0.30.20.20.30.5
GFCF in other products0.0–0.20.00.00.3
Other fixed assets0.10.10.10.10.1
Changes in inventories and so on–0.5–0.4–1.0–0.3–0.2
Domestic uses1.51.30.81.82.1
Balance of exports and imports (net exports)0.20.00.9–0.10.0

 

 Use of the gross domestic product
Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures according to Census X-12-ARIMA
 2015
1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr
1 Only seasonally adjusted.
qtr = quarter
At current prices
EUR bn.
Consumption expenditure548.484553.299 557.493561.535
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs404.602407.370410.332411.817
Government final consumption expenditure143.882145.929147.161149.718
Gross capital formation142.799139.443140.162144.955
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)150.538150.060150.678153.443
GFCF in machinery and equipment49.27449.63649.90750.436
GFCF in construction74.60073.46173.51475.440
GFCF in other products26.66426.96327.25727.567
Domestic uses691.283692.742697.655706.490
Exports347.801357.305357.231353.848
Imports292.164295.894297.929295.375
Gross domestic product (GDP)746.920754.153756.957764.963
Price-adjusted, chain-linked
Change on the previous quarter in %
Consumption expenditure0.40.30.60.5
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs0.40.10.60.3
Government final consumption expenditure0.50.70.51.0
Gross capital formation1.4–2.20.52.4
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)1.5–0.60.11.5
GFCF in machinery and equipment1.90.60.21.0
GFCF in construction1.4–1.8–0.22.2
GFCF in other products0.80.70.60.7
Domestic uses0.6–0.20.60.8
Exports1.51.80.3–0.6
Imports2.20.61.10.5
Gross domestic product (GDP)0.40.40.30.3
Memorandum item: 
GDP per person in employment0.20.10.0–0.0
GDP per hour worked by persons in employment 10.10.20.2–0.4
Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP
in percentage points
Consumption expenditure0.30.20.50.3
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs0.20.10.40.1
Government final consumption expenditure0.10.10.10.2
Gross capital formation0.3–0.40.10.4
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)0.3–0.10.00.3
GFCF in machinery and equipment0.10.00.00.1
GFCF in construction0.1–0.20.00.2
GFCF in other products0.00.00.00.0
Changes in inventories and so on0.0–0.30.10.1
Domestic uses0.6–0.20.60.8
Balance of exports and imports (net exports)–0.20.6–0.3–0.5

  

Gross value added by economic sector
 2015
Year1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr
At current prices
EUR bn.
Agriculture, forestry and fishing15.0283.6453.8123.8023.769
Industry, excluding construction701.177172.530175.341177.572175.734
including:
Manufacturing615.384149.593155.010157.032153.749
Construction128.08925.40931.41134.34636.923
Trade, transport, accommodation and food services421.62298.754106.232108.218108.418
Information and communication133.40133.65331.91834.41133.419
Financial and insurance activities106.59926.84226.68726.44026.630
Real estate activities303.97676.29175.22778.03774.421
Business services305.03875.85072.55779.57377.058
Public services, education, health496.998123.702119.916123.322130.058
Other services110.72927.63226.64828.44828.001
Gross value added, total2,722.657664.308669.749694.169694.431
Price-adjusted, chain-linked
Change on the previous year in %
Agriculture, forestry and fishing–1.8–1.6–2.3–2.4–0.9
Industry, excluding construction2.01.12.32.42.0
including:
Manufacturing1.70.82.01.92.1
Construction0.3–2.3–0.7–0.33.6
Trade, transport, accommodation and food services1.61.61.31.61.9
Information and communication2.81.92.92.93.8
Financial and insurance activities–0.90.0–1.2–2.1–0.4
Real estate activities1.40.91.21.71.7
Business services2.71.92.72.53.5
Public services, education,health1.21.41.61.10.8
Other services0.4–0.10.40.21.0
Gross value added, total1.51.11.61.51.9

  

 Distribution of gross national income
 2015
Year1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4 th qtr
At current prices
EUR bn.
Gross national income3,091.500757.736746.924789.287797.553
Net national income (factor costs)2,260.646552.883541.270580.476586.017
Compensation of employees1,543.106359.117377.876380.636425.477
Property and entrepreneurial income717.540193.766163.394199.840160.540
Gross wages and salaries of employees1,262.717292.590308.731311.969349.427
Net wages and salaries of employees838.380194.117200.375211.795232.093
memorandum item: 
Disposable income of households1,757.675435.949435.427440.635445.664
Savings ratio (in %)9.712.99.38.18.4
Change on the previous year in %
Gross national income3.73.33.43.74.2
Net national income (factor costs)3.93.63.64.04.3
Compensation of employees3.93.44.04.04.2
Property and entrepreneurial income3.93.92.94.04.6
Gross wages and salaries of employees4.03.54.14.14.4
Net wages and salaries of employees3.72.93.53.94.6
Memorandum item:
Disposable income of households2.82.82.92.92.5

National accounts data may be accessed via the Destatis website. More detailed results are published in Fachserie 18 “National accounts”, Series 1.2 “Quarterly results“ and Series 1.3 “Seasonally adjusted quarterly results using Census X-12-ARIMA and BV 4.1”. The above and other publications can be downloaded. A detailed quality report on national accounts is available.

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