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Press release 062 / 2017-02-23: Detailed gross domestic product results for the 4th quarter of 2016

-WIESBADEN – The German economy continued its moderate growth at the end of 2016. As the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) already reported in its first release of 14 February 2017, the gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.4% – upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustment – in the fourth quarter of 2016 compared with the previous quarter. The economic situation in Germany in 2016 thus was characterised by solid and steady growth (+0.7% in the first quarter, +0.5% in the second quarter and +0.1% in the third quarter). For the whole year of 2016, this was an increase of 1.9% (calendar-adjusted: +1.8%). The provisional annual GDP result released in January has thus been confirmed.


 

Gross domestic product, price-adjusted, chain-linked
(figures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects using Census X-12-ARIMA)
Changes on a quarter earlier in percent:
20152016
1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr
+0.2+0.5+0.2+0.4+0.7+0.5+0.1+0.4

The quarter-on-quarter comparison (upon adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations) shows that positive contributions came mainly from domestic demand. The final consumption expenditure of general government rose by 0.8% and household final consumption expenditure increased by 0.3% on the third quarter of 2016. A largely positive development was also observed for capital formation. Especially gross fixed capital formation in construction was up (+1.6%) on the previous quarter. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment fell slightly (–0.1%) on the previous quarter. On the whole, domestic uses rose by 0.9% (upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustment) compared with the third quarter of 2016.

According to provisional calculations, the development of foreign trade, however, had a downward effect on growth because the price, seasonally and calendar-adjusted increase in imports on the previous quarter (+3.1%) was markedly larger than the increase in exports (+1.8%). Consequently, the balance of exports and imports of goods and services as a whole, in arithmetical terms, had a negative effect on GDP growth (–0.4 percentage points).

The following information refers to the year-on-year comparison:

Measured by unadjusted figures, economic growth on a year earlier slowed since summer. The price-adjusted GDP rose by 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2016, following increases of 1.5% in the third quarter of 2016 and 3.2% in the second quarter of 2016. However, in the last quarter of 2016 there was one working day less than a year earlier. Consequently, the calendar-adjusted increase (+1.7%) was similar to that in the third (+1.7%) and second quarter (+1.8%). 

Gross domestic product, price-adjusted, chain-linked (unadjusted figures)
Changes on a year earlier in percent:
20152016
1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr
+1.3+1.8+1.8+2.1+1.5+3.2+1.5+1.2

According to provisional calculations, the economic performance in the fourth quarter of 2016 was achieved by 43.7 million persons in employment, which was an increase of 267,000, or 0.6%, on a year earlier.

Overall labour productivity (price-adjusted gross domestic product per hour worked by persons in employment) was markedly above the level of the previous year (+1.8%) according to first provisional calculations. Measured per person in employment, it rose by 0.6%.

Also in a year-on-year comparison, contributions to growth were mainly made by domestic demand in the fourth quarter of 2016. Household final consumption expenditure increased by 1.5%, while government final consumption expenditure was up by as much as 3.2%. Gross fixed capital formation in construction grew by 1.3% with a particularly significant year-on-year increase for gross fixed capital formation in dwellings. Capital formation in other buildings and structures, however, was down. This development is due to a decrease in industrial construction, whereas public construction grew slightly. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment fell a price-adjusted 2.6% on the fourth quarter of 2015. On the whole, however, domestic uses were up 1.6% on a year earlier.

The development of foreign trade had a downward effect on growth also in a year-on-year comparison. In price-adjusted terms, exports of goods and services rose by 3.3% compared with the previous year. There was however a larger increase in imports (+4.5%) in the same period. Consequently, the balance of exports and imports had a downward effect, in arithmetical terms, of –0.2 percentage points on GDP growth compared with the previous year.

On the production side of the gross domestic product, the price-adjusted gross value added was higher in all economic sectors in the last quarter of 2016 than a year earlier. The highest growth rates were recorded for financial and insurance activities (+3.9%) as well as for information and communication services (+2.9%). The price-adjusted year-on-year increase in manufacturing was below average (+0.5%). On the whole, the price-adjusted gross value added of all economic sectors was up by 1.4% on the fourth quarter of 2015.

At current prices, the gross domestic product increased by 2.5% and the gross national income by 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2016 compared with the fourth quarter of 2015. Net national income at factor costs, consisting of compensation of employees (+3.1%) and property and entrepreneurial income (+0.2%), rose by a total of 2.3%, according to first provisional calculations. Gross wages and salaries of employees were up by 3.1% and net wages and salaries by 2.0% on a year earlier. On average, wages and salaries per employee did not rise that much (2.4% in gross terms and 1.4% in net terms) because the number of employees was up as well (+0.7%) compared with the same quarter a year earlier. The disposable income of households increased by 2.8%, this rise being slightly higher than that of household final consumption expenditure at current prices (+2.6%).

In addition to calculating first data for the fourth quarter of 2016, the Federal Statistical Office revised the national accounting results published previously for the first three quarters and the year of 2016. As reported in the first release of 14 February 2017, this resulted in slight corrections of the rates of change of the price-adjusted gross domestic product. Significant corrections were however made regarding individual GDP components. As is usual for seasonally and calendar-adjusted series, modified results may also appear in the whole time series from 1991 onwards.

Gross domestic product
 Unadjusted figuresFigures according to
Census X-12-ARIMA,
price-adjusted, chain-linked
At current pricesPrice-adjusted, chain-linkedSeasonally and
calendar-adjusted
Calendar-
adjusted
EUR billion% 12010 = 100% 12010 = 100% 2% 1 3
1 Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year in %.
2 Change on the previous year or quarter in %.
3 As for years, the calendar-adjusted values equal the seasonally and calendar-adjusted values (except for differences due to rounding).
qtr = quarter
20153,032.82 3.7108.18 1.7108.09 1.5 1.5
20163,132.67 3.3110.19 1.9110.01 1.8 1.8
20151st qtr739.41 3.2106.89 1.3107.44 0.2 1.2
2nd qtr745.99 3.8106.89 1.8108.00 0.5 1.8
3rd qtr771.66 3.7110.35 1.8108.26 0.2 1.7
4th qtr775.76 4.2108.59 2.1108.65 0.4 1.3
20161st qtr763.18 3.2108.50 1.5109.43 0.7 1.9
2nd qtr780.76 4.7110.28 3.2109.94 0.5 1.8
3rd qtr793.61 2.8112.05 1.5110.09 0.1 1.7
4th qtr795.12 2.5109.94 1.2110.56 0.4 1.7

Use of the gross domestic product
Unadjusted figures 
 2016
Year1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4 th qtr
At current prices
EUR bn.
Consumption expenditure2,295.270 549.243 571.234 576.687598.106
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs1,679.156 400.075 420.763 426.535 431.783
Government final consumption expenditure616.114 149.168 150.471 150.152 166.323
Gross capital formation 598.648 156.384 138.966 164.267 139.031
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) 626.710 142.483 161.124 159.924 163.179
GFCF in machinery and equipment 204.409 47.171 51.519 48.503 57.216
GFCF in construction 309.395 67.993 81.820 83.243 76.339
GFCF in other products112.906 27.319 27.785 28.178 29.624
Domestic uses2,893.918 705.627 710.200 740.954 737.137
Exports1,441.387 346.140 366.431 358.257 370.559
Imports1,202.635 288.587 295.871 305.601 312.576
Gross domestic product (GDP)3,132.670 763.180 780.760 793.610 795.120
Price-adjusted, chain-linked
Change on the previous year in %
Consumption expenditure 2.5 2.8 3.3 2.1 1.9
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs 2.0 2.1 2.8 1.5 1.5
Government final consumption expenditure 4.0 4.6 4.8 3.7 3.2
Gross capital formation 1.3 0.7 2.3 1.8 0.2
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) 2.3 3.2 4.6 1.4 0.1
GFCF in machinery and equipment 1.1 3.9 4.4–0.5–2.6
GFCF in construction 3.0 3.0 5.4 2.1 1.3
GFCF in other products 2.6 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.5
Domestic uses 2.3 2.3 3.1 2.0 1.6
Exports 2.6 1.3 4.6 1.3 3.3
Imports 3.7 3.2 4.8 2.4 4.5
Gross domestic product (GDP) 1.9 1.5 3.2 1.5 1.2
memorandum item:
GDP per person in employment 0.9 0.2 2.0 0.7 0.6
GDP per hour worked by persons in employment 1.2 1.7 0.2 0.9 1.8
Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP in percentage points
Consumption expenditure 1.8 2.0 2.4 1.5 1.5
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs 1.1 1.1 1.5 0.8 0.8
Government final consumption expenditure 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6
Gross capital formation 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0
GFCF in machinery and equipment 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0–0.2
GFCF in other products 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1
Other fixed assets 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Changes in inventories and so on–0.2–0.4–0.5 0.1 0.0
Domestic uses 2.1 2.2 2.9 1.9 1.5
Balance of exports and imports (net exports)–0.2–0.6 0.3–0.4–0.2

 

 Use of the gross domestic product
Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures according to Census X-12-ARIMA
 2016
1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr
1 Only seasonally adjusted.
qtr = quarter
At current prices
EUR bn.
Consumption expenditure 567.176 571.167 573.746 580.474
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs 415.452 417.627 419.496 423.874
Government final consumption expenditure 151.724 153.540 154.250 156.600
Gross capital formation 148.232 147.117 149.542 153.718
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) 156.670 154.900 155.265 157.283
GFCF in machinery and equipment 51.686 50.490 50.476 50.612
GFCF in construction 77.149 76.291 76.418 78.090
GFCF in other products 27.835 28.119 28.371 28.581
Domestic uses 715.408 718.284 723.288 734.192
Exports 354.473 357.675 357.383 365.998
Imports 295.574 295.482 298.177 310.217
Gross domestic product (GDP) 774.307 780.477 782.494 789.973
Price-adjusted, chain-linked
Change on the previous quarter in %
Consumption expenditure 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.5
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.3
Government final consumption expenditure 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.8
Gross capital formation–0.0–1.8 1.5 2.4
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) 1.8–1.5–0.2 0.8
GFCF in machinery and equipment 0.9–2.3–0.5–0.1
GFCF in construction 2.7–1.7–0.3 1.6
GFCF in other products 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.3
Domestic uses 0.7–0.1 0.5 0.9
Exports 1.4 1.2–0.3 1.8
Imports 1.4 0.1 0.4 3.1
Gross domestic product (GDP) 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.4
memorandum item: 
GDP per person in employment 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3
GDP per hour worked by persons in employment 1 1.6–1.0 0.7 0.6
Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP
in percentage points
Consumption expenditure 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3
Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2
Government final consumption expenditure 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2
Gross capital formation 0.0–0.4 0.3 0.5
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) 0.4–0.3 0.0 0.2
GFCF in machinery and equipment 0.1–0.2 0.0 0.0
GFCF in construction 0.3–0.2 0.0 0.2
GFCF in other products 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Changes in inventories and so on–0.4–0.1 0.3 0.3
Domestic uses 0.6–0.1 0.5 0.8
Balance of exports and imports (net exports) 0.1 0.5–0.3–0.4

  

Gross value added by economic sector
 2016
Year1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4th qtr
At current prices
EUR bn.
Agriculture, forestry and fishing 17.935 4.248 4.505 4.530 4.652
Industry, excluding construction 723.616 177.451 184.893 181.683 179.589
including:
Manufacturing 638.060 154.721 164.394 161.258 157.687
Construction 135.466 26.683 34.430 36.000 38.353
Trade, transport, accommodation and food services 443.084 103.011 114.106 112.904 113.063
Information and communication 137.253 34.281 33.573 35.246 34.153
Financial and insurance activities 110.838 27.684 27.724 27.698 27.732
Real estate activities 306.790 77.018 76.381 78.229 75.162
Business services 315.060 78.183 76.303 81.801 78.773
Public services, education, health 517.293 128.188 125.369 128.455 135.281
Other services 113.673 28.100 27.681 29.157 28.735
Gross value added, total2,821.008 684.847 704.965 715.703 715.493
Price-adjusted, chain-linked
Change on the previous year in %
Agriculture, forestry and fishing 0.3 0.7 0.7–0.5 0.3
Industry, excluding construction 1.6 0.9 4.0 1.0 0.5
including:
Manufacturing 1.9 1.2 4.6 1.2 0.5
Construction 2.8 1.7 5.6 2.0 1.7
Trade, transport, accommodation and food services 2.4 1.3 4.3 1.7 2.1
Information and communication 3.1 2.5 4.1 3.1 2.9
Financial and insurance activities 2.5 2.2 1.4 2.4 3.9
Real estate activities 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.8
Business services 2.1 1.6 3.7 1.8 1.3
Public services, education, health 1.7 1.4 2.2 1.8 1.4
Other services 1.1 0.1 2.0 1.2 1.1
Gross value added, total 1.8 1.2 3.2 1.5 1.4

  

 Distribution of gross national income
 2016
Year1st qtr2nd qtr3rd qtr4 th qtr
At current prices
EUR bn.
Gross national income3,197.313 783.426 784.441 810.848 818.598
Net national income (factor costs)2,338.392 569.965 571.401 594.982 602.044
Compensation of employees1,593.202 373.426 390.158 392.332 437.286
Property and entrepreneurial income 745.190 196.539 181.243 202.650 164.758
Gross wages and salaries of employees1,305.941 305.255 319.334 321.856 359.496
Net wages and salaries of employees 863.087 202.183 207.382 217.143 236.379
memorandum item: 
Disposable income of households1,811.802 447.817 452.296 452.448 459.241
Savings ratio (in %) 9.7 13.0 9.4 8.2 8.5
Change on the previous year in %
Gross national income 3.2 3.4 4.8 2.6 2.1
Net national income (factor costs) 3.3 3.3 5.4 2.5 2.3
Compensation of employees 3.5 4.2 3.4 3.3 3.1
Property and entrepreneurial income 3.0 1.7 9.9 1.0 0.2
Gross wages and salaries of employees 3.6 4.5 3.5 3.4 3.1
Net wages and salaries of employees 3.2 4.4 3.6 2.9 2.0
memorandum item:
Disposable income of households 2.8 2.7 3.4 2.2 2.8

National accounts data may be accessed via the Destatis website. More detailed results are published in Fachserie 18 “National accounts”, Series 1.2 “Quarterly results“ and Series 1.3 “Seasonally adjusted quarterly results using Census X-12-ARIMA and BV 4.1”. The above and other publications can be downloaded. A detailed quality report on national accounts is available.

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