ontents
Development of average number of children and proportion of mothers in female cohorts
More children born to mothers in the 1973 to 1982 birth cohorts than to mothers born in the 1960s
Childlessness in eastern Germany much lower than in western Germany despite convergence
The final rate of childlessness of women aged 45 to 49 has remained unchanged at 20% since 2012
Final rate of childlessness varies regionally between 13% and 29%
Women's educational attainment key determining factor for the average number of children
Introduction
In addition to birth statistics, the microcensus provides data on women by the number of children born. This information is the only official data source currently available on the structure of women by the number of children born, and therefore for measuring the level of childlessness. Unlike the usual concept of households and families used in the microcensus, this approach only captures the number of biological children a woman has had, irrespective of whether the children live in the respondent’s household. By contrast, the definition of households and families does not distinguish between biological, adopted or foster children, and only children living in the household at the time of the survey are taken into consideration.
The microcensus core programme contains two questions regarding the birth of children. "Have you ever given birth?" is the first question, and is directed at all women aged 15 to 75 at the time of the survey. The second question – which asks the respondent about the number of children born – is for mothers only. The microcensus has been collecting the data on biological children on a four-year basis since 2008. As an exception, there were only two years between the 2016 and 2018 surveys due to plans to implement far-reaching methodological changes to the microcensus from 2020 onwards. The last survey on the birth of children took place in 2022.
The data on the birth of children allow statements to be made about the level of childlessness, the development of childlessness over time and its geographic distribution, the structure of mothers by the number of children born, and the average number of children per woman and mother. These indicators serve to complement continuous birth statistics, which are based on the births reported by the registrar’s offices. However, the average number of children (per woman) of a female cohort that is based on the information provided (on a voluntary basis) in the microcensus may not always tally with the final average number of children of this cohort that is derived from the birth statistics (complete count with legal obligation to provide information), as these indicators are based on different data collection methods. Furthermore, while the two indicators technically refer to the same female cohorts, these cohorts are observed at different times. The microcensus provides information in relation to the current population at the time of the survey, while in the birth statistics data at the time of birth are cumulated over the entire reproductive period of a female cohort. The number of births in the microcensus survey year can also differ from the birth statistics result for the same calendar year for methodological reasons. In this case, the birth statistics are the preferred data source for the number of births, being more reliable as a complete count coupled with the legal obligation to provide information.
The most important results of the 2022 microcensus regarding the structure of women by the number of children born and childlessness are presented and explained in this article, supported by graphics and diagrams. Detailed results are provided in the Statistical Report entitled "Frauen nach Zahl der geborenen Kinder - Erstergebnisse des Mikrozensus 2022 (Women by number of children born - First results of the 2022 microcensus)" and the GENESIS-Online (Tables 12612-0050 to 12612-0052). There have been two types of results since the 2020 microcensus: first results and final results. This publication is based on the first results.
In addition, the Statistical Report entitled "Mikrozensus - Haushalte und Familien - Erstergebnisse 2022 (Microcensus - Households and families - 2022 first results" contains information on families, mothers and fathers with children in the household.
Development of average number of children and proportion of mothers in female cohorts
The average final number of children of a female cohort - in other words, the 'average completed fertility' - is determined by the number of births occurring to the mothers in this birth cohort (number of children per mother) and the proportion of mothers in all women in the cohort.
For the best part of the last four decades, the average number of children per mother has only varied slightly, hovering around the 2.0 children mark. The number of children born to mothers in the 1968 to 1972 birth cohorts was somewhat lower, at 1.96 children per mother. By contrast, mothers in the later cohorts of 1978 to 1982, and still of reproductive age (40-44 years) in 2022, had 2.05 children on average. They have therefore already reached the same number of children as women born in the years 1953 to 1957 - cohorts marked by a relatively high number of births - had reached at the end of their reproductive period.
As childlessness increased, the proportion of mothers in female cohorts decreased, from 86% among the 1947 to 1952 birth cohorts to 79% among women born in the period from 1968 to 1972. The proportion of mothers has stabilised among the later female cohorts who were born in the years 1973 to 1982 and were aged 40 to 49 years in 2022. These changes in the proportion of mothers affected the completed fertility per woman.
Despite a stable number of children per mother, completed fertility per woman initially dropped from 1.72 (1947 to 1952 cohorts) to 1.55 (1968 to 1972 cohorts). Among the later cohorts of 1973 to 1982, the figure was higher at just over 1.6 children per woman, even though these cohorts were in their forties in 2022 and were not yet at the end of their reproductive period. This slight increase was possible because the proportion of mothers had stabilised and the number of children per mother had risen.
Figure 1
More children born to mothers in the 1973 to 1982 birth cohorts than to mothers born in the 1960s
The composition (structure) of the female cohorts by number of children born influences the average number of children per mother. Overall, the relative proportions of mothers with one child, with two, three and with four or more children change slowly in Germany and there are only marginal differences between the cohorts who are at or nearing the end of their reproductive period. The greatest variation can be seen among the proportion of mothers with only one child. At 28%, this proportion was relatively low among women born in the 1950s. Afterwards, it rose continuously to peak at 33% for women born in the years 1968 to 1972, to then drop to 30% among women five years younger. At the same time, there was an increase in the proportions of mothers with two and more children. Of the 1973 to 1977 female cohorts, who were at the end of their reproductive period in 2022, 30% of mothers had one child, 48% had two children, 16% had three children and 7% had four or more children, and therefore had given birth to more children on average than women born in the years 1968 to 1972.
These changes are also reflected when the data are examined by region. There are, however, significant differences between the various Länder groups (non-city Länder in eastern Germany, non-city Länder in western Germany, and city states Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen). The structure of mothers over time is relatively stable in the non-city Länder of western Germany. Here, 27% to 30% of mothers had one child, 48% to 49% had two, 16% to 18% had three and 6% to 7% had four or more children.
By contrast, the structure of mothers by number of children has changed more dramatically over time in the eastern German non-city Länder. For example, the proportion of mothers with a one-child family has tended to increase, while mothers with two and three children have become less common. For mothers born between 1947 and 1962, who had essentially completed their family planning before German reunification, the share of women with only one child was between 28% and 31% and therefore on a par with western Germany. It then rose substantially to 43% among women born in the period from 1968 to 1972. The social transformations in the 1990s around the time of reunification, including out-migration to the former territory of the Federal Republic, obviously had a significant impact on the fertility of these cohorts. Among the 1973 to 1977 birth cohorts, who were at the end of their reproductive period in 2022, the share of mothers with one child was already much lower, at 39%. The proportion of mothers with two children in these cohorts stood at 46% and that of mothers with three children at 11%. The share of mothers with four or more children has also hardly changed over time in eastern Germany, ranging between 4% and 5%.
The share of mothers with a one-child family also increased in the city states. It initially rose from 35% for the 1950s cohorts to 39% among women born in the period from 1968 to 1972 and then dropped to 31% for the 1973 to 1977 birth cohorts.
At the same time, the proportion of mothers with two children rose from 42% to 46% and that of mothers with three children from 14% to 17%. The share of mothers with four or more children remained stable at around 6%.
Figure 2
Childlessness in eastern Germany much lower than in western Germany despite convergence
The cohorts born in the years 1947 to 1950 are the oldest cohorts surveyed in the 2022 microcensus. The rate of childlessness in this group is 14%. The final rate of childlessness rose steadily among subsequent cohorts and peaked at 21% among women born in the years 1966 to 1971. The rate is 20% for younger female cohorts born in the years 1972 to 1980 and aged 42 to 50 in 2022. It is likely that the 1981 to 1983 birth cohorts will also have a final childlessness rate of below 21%. While the temporary proportion childless in these cohorts is currently still at 22%, it will drop in the next few years given that the women in these cohorts may still enter parenthood.
The differences in the level of childlessness between women in western and eastern Germany are quite striking. For the 1972 to 1974 female cohorts, who had reached the end of their reproductive period in 2022, the rate of childlessness is 21% in western Germany and 13% in eastern Germany. The rate for Germany as a whole is 20%.
In relative terms, the regional differences are particularly pronounced in the post-war generation, i.e. those born in the 1950s and 1960s. For those born after the mid-1960s, and who largely entered parenthood after German reunification in 1990, these differences have narrowed due to the combination of increased childlessness in eastern Germany and the stabilisation of the rate of childlessness in western Germany.
Despite the convergence of eastern and western Germany, it appears that the childlessness gap between women in the east and west of the country is also becoming more deeply established among the younger cohorts. Women who were born in eastern Germany between 1981 and 1990, and are still in the family formation stage, have a temporary childlessness rate that is 8 percentage points lower on average than that of their peers in western Germany. Considering the aforementioned differences in the number of children born to mothers, a typical eastern German behavioural pattern appears to have taken shape here (more on this in the next section).
Figure 3
In eastern Germany, women tend to be mothers more often than in western Germany but are less likely to have more than two children
The following findings apply to all women born in the years 1973 to 1977 and aged 45 to 49 in 2022: 20% were childless, 24% had one child, 38% had two children, and 18% had three or more children. Among women in the non-city Länder of western Germany, the structure by number of children born was very similar to that in Germany as a whole. Of women in the non-city Länder of eastern Germany only 15% were childless. At the same time, mothers with a one-child family were much more common (33%), while mothers with three or more children were less frequent (13%). By contrast, the proportion childless in the city states was particularly high, at 25%. Here, the share of women with two children was 35%, while that of women with three or more children stood at 17%.
Figure 4
The final rate of childlessness of women aged 45 to 49 has remained unchanged at 20% since 2012
The final rate of childlessness at the end of the reproductive period – statistically considered to be between the ages of 45 and 49 – initially rose in Germany from 17% when first measured in the 2008 microcensus to 20% in 2012. Afterwards, it stabilised at this level, deviating slightly in 2018 (21%). At 21% and 26%, respectively, the temporary rate of childlessness among women aged 40 to 44 years, and 35 to 39 years, in 2022 was almost the same as in 2008 (20% and 26%, respectively).
The rate of childlessness has stabilised in both western Germany and eastern Germany in the last decade, albeit at a different level. In western Germany, the rate of childlessness of women aged 45 to 49 years was even slightly lower (20%) in 2022 than in 2012 (21%). Among 40- to 44-year-olds, the rate was also lower in 2022, at 21%, than in 2012, when it stood at 23%. In the 35 to 39 age group, 27% of women were childless in both 2022 and 2012.
At 14%, the rate of childlessness for women aged 45 to 49 years in eastern Germany was three percentage points higher in 2022 than in 2012 and twice the rate reported in 2008 (7%). Compared with women five years older, the rate was unchanged, however. At 15% for women aged 40 to 44 years, and 20% for 35- to 39-year-olds, it was only 1 percentage point higher for either age group in 2022 than in 2012. Based on the current results, it appears that the process of convergence with the much higher west-German rate has been halted.
Temporary childlessness among younger women was higher in western and eastern Germany in 2022 than it was in 2012. This may be due to women starting a family later in life and can also be an indicator of a slight increase in childlessness in the future.
Figure 5
Final rate of childlessness varies regionally between 13% and 29%
With regard to the level of childlessness, there are marked differences between some regions of the country compared with others. Compared by Land, the rate of childlessness in 2022 among women aged 45 to 54 years ranged from 13% in Thüringen to 29% in Hamburg. The second highest rate (25%) was reported in Berlin. In most western Länder, the childlessness rate ranged between 17% and 23%. Of the non-city Länder of eastern Germany, Brandenburg was an exception with the relatively high rate of 17%. In the remaining eastern Länder, the rate was substantially lower (13% or 14%).
When comparing the rates of childlessness across the Länder, it is important to bear in mind that these rates are subject to a relatively large sampling error particularly in sparsely populated areas. A broader age range of at least ten years should therefore be used to make robust statements on childlessness. The confidence intervals in the figure below show the range of values for the Länder-specific childlessness rates for the 45 to 54 age group with 95% probability.
Figure 6
The final rate of childlessness among women with academic qualifications has dropped in western Germany
Women with an academic vocational qualification tend to be childless more often than women who do not have a university (tertiary) education (non-graduates). At 26% to 27%, the final rate of childlessness was particularly high among university graduates born between 1958 and 1972. For women born in the years 1973 to 1977 and aged 45 to 49 in 2022, the rate was already much lower, at 23%, and closer to the rate of childlessness (19%) of non-graduates of the same age.
Among women with a non-tertiary education (e.g. apprenticeship training, master craftswoman or technician training), the rate of childlessness rose from 13% for the 1947 to 1952 birth cohorts to 19% for women born in the years 1963 to 1967. It then stabilised at a rate between 19% and 20% until the cohorts born in the early 1980s.
The differences between university graduates and non-graduates become more pronounced again among women born after 1982. This may be due to the fact that, on average, university graduates have their first child later in life than non-graduates. It is too early to tell whether this is a possible indicator of a re-emerging increase in childlessness among graduates in the younger cohorts.
Figure 7
The decline in the rate of childlessness among university graduates is primarily due to developments in western Germany. In the non-city Länder of eastern Germany, the rate of childlessness among women with an academic qualification rose slightly, but at a much lower level. The rate for eastern German university graduates in the 1973 to 1977 birth cohorts stood at 17% and was therefore lower than the rate for university graduates and non-graduates in western Germany (23% and 19%, respectively).
Of women with non-tertiary qualifications, the rates were relatively stable in both western and eastern Germany for the 1968 to 1982 birth cohorts, ranging from 19% to 21% in the west of the country and from 14% to 15% in the east.
Figure 8
Significant differences in rate of childlessness depending on women's country of birth and educational attainment
The microcensus allows for differentiation of the data by the woman's country of birth, the year of immigration to Germany and the level of education. The two variables "country of birth" and "year woman immigrated to Germany" were combined in the following categories: (1) women who were born in Germany or immigrated to Germany as young girls before the age of 15 (grew up in Germany) and (2) women who were born abroad and arrived in Germany at age 15 and over (immigrants). The level of education is presented here according to three categories of the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED 2011).
Overall, the 1973 to 1977 female cohorts who grew up in Germany tend to be childless more often (22%) than women who immigrated to Germany (12%). Within the two groups, there are stark differences, however, depending on the level of education. Among the women who grew up in Germany, the rate of childlessness varies between 24% for women with a high level of education and 16% for women with a low level of education. In the case of women who immigrated to Germany, this range is even wider but the rate of childlessness is lower, extending from 18% among women with a high level of education to 8% for women with low educational attainment.
Figure 9
Women's educational attainment key determining factor for the average number of children
Women born in the years 1973 to 1977 (aged 45 to 49 years in 2022) have given birth to 1.6 children on average. Within this age group, women with a high and medium level of education had an average of 1.5 children per woman, while those with a low educational level had 2.2 children per woman on average.
The data present a similar picture for women who grew up in Germany (this group includes women who were born in Germany and those who immigrated to Germany before the age of 15). Women with a high level of education had 1.5 children per woman, and those with a medium educational level had 1.4 children per woman. At 2.0, the average number of children per woman was higher for women with a low level of education. However, given that the share of women with a low level of education in this group is comparatively small, at 11%, the average number of children born to women who grew up in Germany was 1.5 children per woman overall.
Among immigrant women (i.e. those who moved to Germany aged 15 and over), the differences according to educational level are more pronounced than for women who grew up in Germany. In this group, the average number of children born to highly educated women was 1.6 children per woman, and therefore only slightly higher than the number of children born to highly educated women who grew up in Germany (1.5 children per woman). Immigrant women with a medium level of education had 1.8 children per woman, and those with a low educational level had 2.4 children per woman. As women with a low level of education accounted for 40% of all immigrant women, the average number of children per woman was much higher for all immigrant women than for women who grew up in Germany, and stood at 2.0 children per woman in 2022.
Figure 10
Methodological notes
Under the Microcenus Act, there is no legal obligation to answer the two questions in the microcensus concerning the birth of children. This results in a level of item non-response, which, at 11% overall, was higher in the 2022 microcensus than in the 2018 microcensus, when 7% of the women surveyed did not supply an answer. The share of non-responses varied greatly, however, depending on the type of survey: from 6% when conducted as a computer assisted web interview, face-to-face interview or telephone interview to 24% when a paper questionnaire was completed independently. To reduce any systematic bias in the results, the missing data were imputed, a process which involves the replacement of missing answers with suitable generated values. In the data sets for 2008, 2012 and 2016, imputation was only performed for cases with a very high probability for a value to be imputed. A new method - predictive mean matching - was used in the 2018 and 2022 microcensus surveys and replaces all missing data with imputed values using stochastic imputation (see Lange, Kerstin/Pötzsch, Olga WISTA Wirtschaft und Statistik, 5/2019). This method yields information on the total distribution of female cohorts by the number of children born.
The questions on the birth of children were asked for the first time in 2022 following comprehensive changes to the microcensus methodology in 2020. A proportion of those surveyed belonged to the subsample of the EU labour force survey (LFS) and were surveyed twice in the course of the 2022 calendar year. The questions on the birth of children were only asked in the first survey, however. To ensure consistency with the rest of the results of the core sample, the responses from the first survey were adopted into the second survey for the persons concerned. More information on the methodology is provided in the Qualitätsbericht des Mikrozensus 2022 (Microcensus 2022 Quality Report).
A special webpage www.destatis.de/mikrozensus2020 contains detailed information on the redesign of the microcensus in 2020 and explains the effects of the redesign and the Covid-19 crisis on the microcensus from 2020 onwards.
Detailed results
Statistical Reports entitled "Frauen nach Zahl der geborenen Kinder - Erstergebnisse des Mikrozensus 2022" (Woman by number of children born - First results of the 2022 microcensus)