Development within 2021: mortality figures below the median of the previous years only in February and March – markedly higher figures in January, November and December
In Germany and all over the world, extremely low levels of respiratory diseases other than Covid-19 were reported at the beginning of 2021. This was particularly evident in the case of flu. The intensity of earlier flu waves was also reflected in the total death figures and resulted in higher case numbers during the winter months. In January 2021 – during the second Covid-19 wave – the death figures in the whole of Germany exceeded the median of the preceding four years by 26%. In that month, the number of additional deaths was almost identical to that of Covid-19 deaths reported to the Robert Koch Institute.
Despite the new Covid-19 deaths, the virtual absence of the flu wave in the 2020/2021 season resulted in total death figures in February (-1%) and March (-6%) which were below the comparative figures of the previous years. During the third Covid-19 wave in April (+4%) and May (+7%), they were back above the comparative figures. In June (+8%), the higher death figures coincided with a heat wave and peaked (+17%) in Week 24 (14 to 20 June), when the heat wave also peaked. In July, mortality figures slightly exceeded the median of the previous years (+3%). In August, they were around the median. In September (+11%) and October (+12%), the mortality figures were again markedly higher than the comparative figures of the previous years. During the fourth Covid-19 wave, the death figures for November and December exceeded the comparative figures by an even greater margin. The number of deaths exceeded the median of the preceding four years by 22% in November and 25% in December.
The Covid-19 deaths reported in autumn and at the end of 2021 can only partly explain the higher death figures. There are several possible causes for the additional increase in death figures. Unidentified Covid-19 deaths or the displacement of deaths within the year caused by the absence of the usual flu wave at the beginning of the year may play a role here (mortality displacement). It is also possible that this reflects the consequences of postponing operations and preventive examinations. It is however currently not possible to quantify the relative impact of individual effects.
