Press release No. 056 of 25 February 2020
Gross domestic product, 4th quarter of 2019
0.0% on the previous quarter (price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted)
+0.3% on the same quarter a year earlier (price-adjusted)
+0.4% on the same quarter a year earlier (price- and calendar-adjusted)
WIESBADEN – The gross domestic product (GDP) did not continue to rise in the fourth quarter of 2019 compared with the third quarter of 2019 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. As the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported in its first release of 14 February 2020, there had been a dynamic start in the first quarter of 2019 (+0.5%), a decline in the second quarter (-0.2%) and a slight recovery in the third quarter of the year (+0.2%). The resulting price-adjusted GDP growth was 0.6% for all of 2019 (also after calendar adjustment).
| 2018 | 2019 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr |
| 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Household and government final consumption expenditure slowed down
Compared with the previous quarter, there were mixed signals regarding domestic demand (after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment). Growth of domestic final consumption expenditure, which had often been the main economic driving force lately, slowed markedly after a very strong third quarter. Household final consumption expenditure stagnated in the fourth quarter of 2019 (0.0%) and general government final consumption expenditure rose only slightly by 0.3%. Trends diverged for fixed capital formation. While gross fixed capital formation in construction increased by 0.6% on the third quarter, which was due also to the mild weather, capital formation in machinery and equipment again decreased considerably (-2.0%). Capital formation in other fixed assets was up 1.1% on a quarter earlier.
The development of foreign trade slowed down the economic activity in the fourth quarter. According to provisional calculations, exports were down 0.2% on the third quarter after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment. While exports of services were slightly higher than in the previous quarter (+0.4%), exports of goods decreased by 0.4%. Imports of goods and services, however, rose by 1.3%.
Gross domestic product up slightly year on year
In a year-on-year comparison, economic growth decelerated towards the end of the year. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the price-adjusted GDP rose by 0.3% on the fourth quarter of 2018 (calendar-adjusted: +0.4%). A higher year-on-year increase of 1.1% had been recorded for the third quarter of 2019 (calendar-adjusted: +0.6%).
| 2018 | 2019 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr |
| 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
Number of persons in employment up again
The economic performance in the fourth quarter of 2019 was achieved by 45.5 million persons in employment. This was an increase of roughly 300,000 people, or 0.7%, on a year earlier (see press release 049/20 of 18 February 2020). Employment thus reached a new record high since German reunification in 1990. However, employment growth slowed considerably in the course of 2019, with growth rates markedly lower than in the previous years.
According to first provisional results of the Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Employment Agency, the average number of hours worked per person in employment decreased by 0.8%. The labour volume of the overall economy, which is the total number of hours worked by all persons in employment, was therefore slightly lower in the fourth quarter of 2019 than in the fourth quarter of 2018 (-0.1%). This was mainly due to higher sickness absence, less overtime and a decrease in the number of self-employed.
Overall labour productivity (price adjusted GDP per hour worked by persons in employment) rose by 0.4% on the same quarter of 2018, according to provisional calculations. Labour productivity per person in employment, however, was down 0.4%.
Consumption and capital formation in construction supporting the economy in a year-on-year comparison
Compared with a year earlier, there were also mixed signals regarding domestic demand in the fourth quarter of 2019. Household final consumption expenditure rose by a price-adjusted 1.2% on a year earlier, while government final consumption expenditure was up 3.0%. Gross fixed capital formation in construction rose by 2.7%; capital formation increased especially in public construction and housing construction compared with the fourth quarter of 2018. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment declined markedly on a price-adjusted basis on the previous year, too (-2.6%). However, the decline in capital formation in machinery and equipment not attributable to general government was not as strong (-1.5%).
Foreign demand was falling towards the end of 2019. According to provisional calculations, exports of goods and services in the fourth quarter of 2019 rose by just 0.9% (price adjusted) on the fourth quarter of 2018. Imports increased slightly more, by 1.2%, in the same period.
Gross value added markedly down again in manufacturing
On the production side of the GDP, price-adjusted gross value added was higher in almost all economic sectors in the fourth quarter of 2019 than in the fourth quarter of 2018. The highest growth rates were recorded in the service sector, especially for information and communication (+2.8%) and construction (+2.0%). However, the massive slump in economic activity in manufacturing (-4.8%) caused the total price-adjusted gross value added to increase by no more than 0.2%.
Strong increase in compensation of employees
At current prices, both the GDP and the gross national income were up 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2019 compared with a year earlier. Net national income at factor costs rose by 1.9%, with the two components showing quite different trends. While the compensation of employees (gross wages and salaries plus employers' social contributions) increased substantially (+3.8%), property and entrepreneurial income was down 3.4% according to first provisional calculations. Gross wages and salaries of employees were up 3.5% from the fourth quarter of 2018, net wages and salaries even 3.9%. On average, wages and salaries per employee did not rise that much (2.6% in gross terms and 2.9% in net terms) because the number of employees continued to grow (+1.0%) compared with the same quarter a year earlier. The disposable income of households increased by 2.6%, with the rise being similar to that of household final consumption expenditure at current prices (+2.5%).
Results for the first three quarters and the year 2019 revised
In addition to calculating first data for the fourth quarter of 2019, the Federal Statistical Office reviewed and revised, where necessary, the results published previously for the first three quarters and the year 2019. The first provisional results are reviewed to incorporate new statistical information. At the relevant publication date, the best possible results are thus available to data users for analysis and forecasts. As reported in the first release of 14 February 2020, the slight recovery in the third quarter of 2019 was 0.1 percentage points stronger after revision than had been published previously. For the individual components, larger changes may occur in the results released earlier, as is usual; for seasonally and calendar adjusted series, this applies to the entire series as from 1991.
| Unadjusted figures | Figures according to X13 price-adjusted | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At current prices | Price-adjusted | Seasonally and calendar-adjusted | Calendar- adjusted | |||||
| EUR billion | % 1 | 2015 = 100 | % 1 | 2015 = 100 | % 2 | % 1 3 | ||
| 1 Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year in %. 2 Change on the previous year or quarter in %. 3 As for years, the calendar-adjusted values equal the seasonally and calendar-adjusted values (except for differences due to rounding). qtr = quarter | ||||||||
| 2018 | 3,344.37 | 3.1 | 106.35 | 1.5 | 106.49 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |
| 2019 | 3,435.76 | 2.7 | 106.95 | 0.6 | 107.13 | 0.6 | 0.6 | |
| 2018 | 1st qtr | 819.26 | 3.2 | 105.28 | 1.6 | 106.18 | 0.1 | 2.3 |
| 2nd qtr | 827.66 | 4.0 | 105.75 | 2.5 | 106.59 | 0.4 | 2.1 | |
| 3rd qtr | 836.96 | 2.3 | 106.69 | 1.1 | 106.48 | -0.1 | 1.1 | |
| 4th qtr | 860.49 | 2.8 | 107.66 | 0.9 | 106.70 | 0.2 | 0.6 | |
| 2019 | 1st qtr | 843.63 | 3.0 | 106.24 | 0.9 | 107.21 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| 2nd qtr | 845.11 | 2.1 | 105.69 | -0.1 | 106.95 | -0.2 | 0.3 | |
| 3rd qtr | 864.01 | 3.2 | 107.88 | 1.1 | 107.16 | 0.2 | 0.6 | |
| 4th qtr | 883.01 | 2.6 | 107.97 | 0.3 | 107.19 | 0.0 | 0.4 | |
| 2019 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4 th qtr | |
| At current prices EUR bn. | |||||
| Consumption expenditure | 2,493.386 | 599.364 | 614.942 | 629.404 | 649.676 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 1,793.981 | 430.837 | 445.759 | 457.218 | 460.167 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 699.405 | 168.527 | 169.183 | 172.186 | 189.509 |
| Gross capital formation | 734.682 | 187.380 | 178.389 | 185.463 | 183.450 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 746.874 | 170.615 | 188.928 | 192.069 | 195.262 |
| GFCF in construction | 373.324 | 83.984 | 96.459 | 101.173 | 91.708 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 239.817 | 55.579 | 60.177 | 58.166 | 65.895 |
| GFCF in other products | 133.733 | 31.052 | 32.292 | 32.730 | 37.659 |
| Domestic uses | 3,228.068 | 786.744 | 793.331 | 814.867 | 833.126 |
| Exports | 1,612.057 | 403.920 | 399.177 | 403.222 | 405.738 |
| Imports | 1,404.365 | 347.034 | 347.398 | 354.079 | 355.854 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) | 3,435.760 | 843.630 | 845.110 | 864.010 | 883.010 |
| Price-adjusted, Change on the previous year in % | |||||
| Consumption expenditure | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| Gross capital formation | -1.8 | 3.4 | 0.5 | -6.1 | -4.2 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 2.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 |
| GFCF in construction | 3.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 2.7 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 0.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 1.7 | -2.6 |
| GFCF in other products | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Domestic uses | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Exports | 0.9 | 1.7 | -1.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Imports | 1.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) | 0.6 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| memorandum item: | |||||
| GDP per person in employment | -0.3 | -0.2 | -1.0 | 0.4 | -0.4 |
| GDP per hour worked by persons in employment | 0.0 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP in % points | |||||
| Consumption expenditure | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Gross capital formation | -0.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | -1.4 | -0.9 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| GFCF in construction | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.2 |
| GFCF in other products | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Changes in inventories and so on | -0.9 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -2.1 | -1.1 |
| Domestic uses | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Balance of exports and imports (net exports) | -0.4 | -0.7 | -1.3 | 0.6 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | |
| 1 Only seasonally adjusted. qtr = quarter | ||||
| At current prices EUR bn. | ||||
| Consumption expenditure | 615.858 | 621.114 | 627.458 | 630.835 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 444.327 | 447.997 | 451.165 | 452.371 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 171.531 | 173.117 | 176.293 | 178.464 |
| Gross capital formation | 185.223 | 187.484 | 177.721 | 186.007 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 186.163 | 186.978 | 187.858 | 188.708 |
| GFCF in construction | 92.857 | 92.893 | 93.872 | 95.181 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 60.553 | 60.899 | 60.334 | 59.385 |
| GFCF in other products | 32.753 | 33.186 | 33.652 | 34.142 |
| Domestic uses | 801.081 | 808.598 | 805.179 | 816.842 |
| Exports | 406.099 | 400.748 | 405.438 | 406.131 |
| Imports | 353.201 | 352.898 | 348.591 | 353.843 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) | 853.979 | 856.448 | 862.026 | 869.130 |
| Price-adjusted, change on the previous quarter in % | ||||
| Consumption expenditure | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| Gross capital formation | -3.1 | 0.7 | -4.2 | 2.9 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 1.6 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| GFCF in construction | 2.6 | -0.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 1.1 | 0.0 | -1.4 | -2.0 |
| GFCF in other products | -0.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Domestic uses | -0.1 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.7 |
| Exports | 1.6 | -1.3 | 1.0 | -0.2 |
| Imports | 0.5 | -0.3 | -0.4 | 1.3 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) | 0.5 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| memorandum item: | ||||
| GDP per person in employment | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| GDP per hour worked by persons in employment 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP in % points | ||||
| Consumption expenditure | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Gross capital formation | -0.7 | 0.1 | -0.9 | 0.6 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| GFCF in construction | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| GFCF in other products | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Changes in inventories and so on | -1.0 | 0.2 | -0.9 | 0.6 |
| Domestic uses | -0.1 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.7 |
| Balance of exports and imports (net exports) | 0.5 | -0.5 | 0.6 | -0.6 |
| 2019 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | |
| At current prices EUR bn. | |||||
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 27.311 | 6.696 | 7.144 | 7.123 | 6.348 |
| Industry, excluding construction | 749.075 | 189.012 | 186.508 | 185.154 | 188.401 |
| including: | |||||
| Manufacturing | 666.761 | 166.391 | 167.234 | 166.686 | 166.450 |
| Construction | 171.732 | 34.880 | 42.152 | 45.420 | 49.280 |
| Trade, transport, accommodation and food services | 501.994 | 118.036 | 127.638 | 127.647 | 128.673 |
| Information and communication | 143.956 | 36.714 | 34.055 | 35.920 | 37.267 |
| Financial and insurance activities | 119.480 | 29.784 | 29.934 | 29.929 | 29.833 |
| Real estate activities | 326.443 | 81.577 | 80.778 | 82.303 | 81.785 |
| Business services | 354.698 | 88.946 | 84.830 | 90.682 | 90.240 |
| Public services, education, health | 581.443 | 142.895 | 139.575 | 143.784 | 155.189 |
| Other services | 116.852 | 28.993 | 28.655 | 29.685 | 29.519 |
| Gross value added, total | 3,092.984 | 757.533 | 761.269 | 777.647 | 796.535 |
| Price-adjusted, Change on the previous year in % | |||||
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| Industry, excluding construction | -3.7 | -2.3 | -4.9 | -3.1 | -4.4 |
| including: | |||||
| Manufacturing | -3.7 | -2.3 | -5.0 | -2.5 | -4.8 |
| Construction | 3.9 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 |
| Trade, transport, accommodation and food services | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| Information and communication | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.8 |
| Financial and insurance activities | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Real estate activities | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Business services | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Public services, education, health | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Other services | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Gross value added, total | 0.5 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2019 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | |
| At current prices | |||||
| EUR bn | |||||
| Gross national income | 3,535.372 | 870.120 | 856.271 | 891.510 | 917.471 |
| Net national income (factor costs) | 2,561.549 | 627.506 | 614.450 | 646.416 | 673.177 |
| Compensation of employees | 1,849.124 | 432.848 | 452.131 | 458.211 | 505.934 |
| Property and entrepreneurial income | 712.425 | 194.658 | 162.319 | 188.205 | 167.243 |
| Gross wages and salaries of employees | 1,522.811 | 355.420 | 371.544 | 378.343 | 417.504 |
| Net wages and salaries of employees | 1,021.751 | 239.210 | 243.757 | 259.393 | 279.391 |
| memorandum item: | |||||
| Disposable income of households | 1953.279 | 488.882 | 481.942 | 488.623 | 493.832 |
| Savings ratio (in %) | 10.9 | 14.4 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 9.8 |
| Change on the previous year in % | |||||
| Gross national income | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| Net national income (factor costs) | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 1.9 |
| Compensation of employees | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 3.8 |
| Property and entrepreneurial income | -2.6 | -2.4 | -4.5 | -0.5 | -3.4 |
| Gross wages and salaries of employees | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 3.5 |
| Net wages and salaries of employees | 4.7 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 3.9 |
| memorandum item: | |||||
| Disposable income of households | 2.9 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.6 |
More detailed results have been published in Fachserie 18 “National Accounts“, Series 1.2 “Quarterly results“ and Series 1.3„Seasonally adjusted quarterly results using X13“.
Visualised updated results are also available in our interactive national accounts dashboard (only in german).
The above and other current national accounting results are available in the GENESIS-Online database. (81000)
