Press release No. 169 of 15 May 2020
Gross domestic product, 1st quarter of 2020
-2.2% on the previous quarter (price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted)
-1.9% on the same quarter a year earlier (price-adjusted)
-2.3% on the same quarter a year earlier (price- and calendar-adjusted)
WIESBADEN – The corona pandemic hits the German economy hard. Although the spread of the coronavirus did not have a major effect on the economic performance in January and February, the impact of the pandemic is serious for the 1st quarter of 2020. The gross domestic product (GDP) was down by 2.2% on the 4th quarter of 2019 upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustment. That was the largest decrease since the global financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009 and the second largest decrease since German unification. A larger quarter-on-quarter decline was recorded only for the 1st quarter of 2009 (-4.7%). This result and other data – especially for the crisis months of March and April 2020 – have been presented by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) at the press conference on “Economic consequences of the corona pandemic” held in Berlin today.
Capital formation in construction and government final consumption expenditure prevent larger decrease
Household final consumption expenditure fell sharply in the 1st quarter of 2020. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment decreased considerably, too. However, final consumption expenditure of general government and gross fixed capital formation in construction had a stabilising effect and prevented a larger GDP decrease. Both exports and imports saw a strong decline on the 4th quarter of 2019.
Massive slump in gross domestic product also on the same quarter of the previous year
Economic performance slumped heavily also in a year-on-year comparison. The GDP in the 1st quarter of 2020 was down a price-adjusted 1.9%, and a calendar-adjusted 2.3%, on a year earlier. Only in the years of the financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009 had there been larger decreases on the relevant quarter of the preceding year. The largest decrease (-7.9%) had been recorded for the 2nd quarter of 2009 (in calendar-adjusted terms for the 1st quarter of 2009 (-6.9%)).
Employment almost unchanged in 1st quarter of 2020
The economic performance in the 1st quarter of 2020 was achieved by roughly 45 million persons in employment whose place of employment was in Germany. That was an increase of 147,000 people, or 0.3%, on a year earlier. Such a small year-on-year increase had last been observed in the 2nd quarter of 2010 (+106,000 people or +0.3%). The corona pandemic thus had only a moderate impact on the number of persons in employment in the 1st quarter of 2020, one of the reasons being that short-time workers are counted as persons in employment.
Revision of previous results
In addition to calculating first data for the 1st quarter of 2020, the Federal Statistical Office reviewed the national accounting results published previously for the quarters and the year of 2019 and incorporated new statistical information in the calculation of the results. This has led to slight changes in the previous results of the gross domestic product. The recalculation for the 4th quarter of 2019 has resulted in a price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP decrease of 0.1% on the previous quarter (previous result: 0.0%). Detailed information on the recalculations is contained in the table “Comparison between previous and new figures” at the end of this press release.
Methodological note:
The corona pandemic has had a marked impact on the German economy since mid-March. In addition, it affects statistics production. Due to the high level of timeliness of the results, part of the data to be included in the gross domestic product has to be estimated, as not all source statistics required are available in time. Estimation models, however, are based on economic relationships of the past, part of which no longer apply in the current situation. For the calculation of first GDP data for the 1st quarter of 2020, the methods were therefore reviewed to avoid, where possible, biases caused by the corona pandemic. Nevertheless, due to the greater uncertainties, the estimations may lead to larger revisions than usual.
Destatis website offers comparison between corona crisis and financial/economic crisis
With its “Crisis Monitor” (www.destatis.de/krisenmonitor), the Federal Statistical Office provides a new range of data comparing the GDP development and other major short-term indicators in the corona crisis with those of the financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009. The “Crisis Monitor” complements the dedicated page on „Corona statistics“ (www.destatis.de/corona), which since early April has grouped statistical information on the economic and social consequences of the corona pandemic.
More information
Detailed information on the press conference on “Economic consequences of the corona pandemic” (only in German).
A long time series with quarterly results on the gross domestic product starting with the first quarter of 1970 is available here.
More detailed results for the 1st quarter of 2020 will be released by the Federal Statistical Office on 25 May 2020.
| Unadjusted figures | Figures according to X13 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seasonally and calendar-adjusted | Calendar-adjusted 1 | Calendar-effect | ||||||
| 2015 = 100 | % 2 | 2015 = 100 | % 3 | 2015 = 100 | %2 | %2 | ||
| 1 For years the calendar-adjusted values are identical with the seasonally and calendar-adjusted values (except for differences due to rounding). 2 Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year. 3 Change on the previous year or previous quarter. qtr = quarter | ||||||||
| 2019 | 106.95 | 0.6 | 107.13 | 0.6 | 107.13 | 0.6 | 0.0 | |
| 2019 | 1st qtr | 106.24 | 0.9 | 107.21 | 0.5 | 106.36 | 1.0 | -0.1 |
| 2nd qtr | 105.69 | -0.1 | 106.95 | -0.2 | 106.00 | 0.3 | -0.4 | |
| 3rd qtr | 107.95 | 1.2 | 107.23 | 0.3 | 107.83 | 0.7 | 0.5 | |
| 4th qtr | 107.90 | 0.2 | 107.12 | -0.1 | 108.31 | 0.4 | -0.2 | |
| 2020 | 1st qtr | 104.22 | -1.9 | 104.74 | -2.2 | 103.93 | -2.3 | 0.4 |
| Unadjusted figures | Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures according to X13 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR billion | Change in %1 | EUR billion | Change in %2 | ||
1 Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year. qtr = quarter | |||||
| 2019 | 3,435.210 | 2.7 | 3,441.032 | 2.8 | |
| 2019 | 1st qtr | 843.530 | 3.0 | 853.873 | 0.9 |
| 2nd qtr | 845.610 | 2.2 | 856.950 | 0.4 | |
| 3rd qtr | 864.310 | 3.3 | 862.325 | 0.6 | |
| 4th qtr | 881.760 | 2.5 | 867.884 | 0.6 | |
| 2020 | 1st qtr | 847.440 | 0.5 | 854.569 | -1.5 |
| New result | Previous result | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chain index (2015 = 100) | Change in %1 | Chain index (2015 = 100) | Change in %1 | ||
| Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures | |||||
| 1 1Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures: Change on the previous quarter. Unadjusted figures: Change on the same quarter of the preceding year. qtr = quarter | |||||
| 2019 | 107.13 | 0.6 | 107.13 | 0.6 | |
| 2019 | 1st qtr | 107.21 | 0.5 | 107.21 | 0.5 |
| 2nd qtr | 106.95 | -0.2 | 106.95 | -0.2 | |
| 3rd qtr | 107.23 | 0.3 | 107.16 | 0.2 | |
| 4th qtr | 107.12 | -0.1 | 107.19 | 0.0 | |
| 2020 | 1st qtr | 104.74 | -2.2 | x | x |
| Unadjusted figures | |||||
| 2019 | 106.95 | 0.6 | 106.95 | 0.6 | |
| 2019 | 1st qtr | 106.24 | 0.9 | 106.24 | 0.9 |
| 2nd qtr | 105.69 | -0.1 | 105.69 | -0.1 | |
| 3rd qtr | 107.95 | 1.2 | 107.88 | 1.1 | |
| 4th qtr | 107.90 | 0.2 | 107.97 | 0.3 | |
| 2020 | 1st qtr | 104.22 | -1.9 | x | x |
