Press release No. 488 of 19 December 2023

Stock of orders in manufacturing, October 2023
-0.6%, in real terms, on the previous month (seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-5.9%, in real terms, on the same month a year earlier (calendar adjusted)

Range of the stock of orders
6.9 months

WIESBADEN – The real (price adjusted) stock of orders in manufacturing was down 0.6% in October 2023 month on month after seasonal and calendar adjustment, according to provisional figures of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The calendar adjusted stock of orders was 5.9% lower in October 2023 than in October 2022.

 

The month-on-month decrease in the stock of orders was primarily due to the decline in the automotive industry (-2.9% after seasonal and calendar adjustment). As a result of supply shortages, historically large stocks of orders had accumulated in the years 2020 to 2022 in the automotive industry. Since January 2023, the stock of orders in this sector has been declining consistently. Over the longer term, however, stocks of orders are still at a high level in the automotive industry despite the large decrease observed in the course of the year. The declines witnessed in the manufacture of machinery and equipment (-0.8%) and the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (-1.3%) also negatively impacted the overall result.

Unfilled foreign orders in October 2023 were down 0.9% on September 2023 and the stock of domestic orders was down 0.1%.

Producers of capital goods saw the stock of orders decline by 0.9%.

The stock of orders for producers of intermediate goods grew by 0.2%, and producers of consumer goods experienced a decrease of 1.1%. 

Range of the stock of orders down to 6.9 months 

The range of the stock of orders fell to 6.9 months in October 2023 (September 2023: 7.0 months). For producers of intermediate goods, the range of the stock of orders increased to 3.8 months (September 2023: 3.7 months). The range declined to 9.5 months (September 2023: 9.6 months) for producers of capital goods. For producers of consumer goods, the range of the stock of orders remained unchanged at 3.4 months. 

Assuming turnover remains constant and no new orders are received, the range indicates the number of months local units would, in theory, have to produce goods in order to fill all orders on hand. It is calculated as the ratio between the current stock of orders and average turnover of the last twelve months in the respective branch. 

Methodological notes:

The differing comparative periods must be taken into account in all press releases on short-term indicators. Short-term economic monitoring focuses on comparisons of seasonally and calendar adjusted figures with those of the previous month. These reflect short-term economic trends. Year-on-year comparisons of calendar adjusted results enable long-term comparisons of levels and are not influenced by seasonal fluctuations or calendar effects. The results of month-on-month and year-on-year comparisons may differ considerably due to the Covid-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine. 

The stock of orders comprises all new orders received by the end of the reference month which have neither generated any turnover nor been cancelled by that time. The rates of change are based on the price adjusted index of the stock of orders in manufacturing. The average figure for 2015 is used as the basis of the index and set to 100 index points (2015 = 100). The X13 JDemetra+ method was used for calendar and seasonal adjustment. The stock of orders is covered and evaluated in accordance with the Classification of Economic Activities (WZ 2008). In the process, information on the stock of orders and on new orders is only collected in selected branches of manufacturing. The manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (Division 29 of WZ) is referred to as the “automotive industry” in this press release. 

More information:

Detailed data are available from the GENESIS-Online database (42155-0004 indices of the stock of orders and 42113-0001 Ranges of the stock of orders).

A dossier on the "Short-term indicators" page of the Federal Statistical Office's website provides an analysis of the relationship between material shortages, new orders, production and prices in industry. Detailed information on production in energy-intensive industrial branches (only in German) is available on the "Industry, manufacturing" page.