Press release No. 454 of 23 November 2018
Gross domestic product, 3rd quarter of 2018
-0.2% on the previous quarter (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
+1.1% on the same quarter a year earlier (price adjusted)
+1.1% on the same quarter a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)
WIESBADEN – German economic growth has stalled. As the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) already reported in its first release of 14 November 2018, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2018 was by 0.2% lower - upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustment - than in the second quarter of 2018. This was the first quarter-on-quarter decrease since the first quarter of 2015. In the first half of 2018, the GDP had increased, by 0.5% in the second quarter and by 0.4% in the first quarter.
| 2017 | 2018 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr |
| 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.2 |
Development of foreign trade slows down economic growth
The slight quarter-on-quarter decline in the gross domestic product was mainly due to the development of foreign trade in the third quarter of 2018. According to provisional calculations, exports of goods and services fell by 0.9% on the second quarter of 2018. At the same time, imports were up 1.3%.
As regards domestic demand, there were mixed signals. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment rose by 0.8%, and in construction even by 0.9%, on the previous quarter. Household final consumption expenditure was down 0.3%, one reason being private households' reluctance to buy new cars. Together with higher imports, this led to an above-average increase in inventories. Government final consumption expenditure was slightly higher than in the previous quarter (+0.2%).
Gross domestic product increased year on year
Compared to a year earlier, the price-adjusted GDP in the third quarter of 2018 rose by 1.1% on a year earlier (calendar-adjusted: also +1.1%). Following a 2.3% increase in the second quarter (calendar-adjusted: +2.0%), slower economic growth is recorded here, too.
| 2017 | 2018 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr |
| 3.4 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
Decreased labour productivity
The economic performance in the third quarter of 2018 was achieved by 45.0 million persons in employment in the domestic territory, which was an increase of 556,000 persons, or 1.3%, on a year earlier (see press release 437/18 of 13 November 2018).
According to first provisional results of the Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Employment Agency, the average number of hours worked per person in employment increased by 0.2%. The labour volume of the overall economy, which is the total number of hours worked by all persons in employment, rose by 1.4% compared with a year earlier.
Overall labour productivity (price-adjusted gross domestic product per hour worked by persons in employment) was down 0.3% on the previous year, according to provisional calculations. Measured per person in employment, it decreased by 0.2%.
Contributions to year-on-year growth mainly from gross fixed capital formation
In a year-on-year comparison, positive contributions came mainly from gross fixed capital formation in the third quarter of 2018. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment rose considerably on a year earlier (+3.7%). Gross fixed capital formation in construction was markedly up, too (+3.3%); especially capital formation in dwellings rose on the third quarter of 2017. Also, a marked increase in inventories was observed. Final consumption expenditure was slightly up on a year earlier. Household final consumption expenditure increased by a price adjusted 0.5%, government final consumption expenditure by 0.9%.
According to provisional calculations, imports of goods and services in the third quarter of 2018 rose markedly on the third quarter of 2017 (+3.8%). Exports were up 1.1% in the same period.
Gross value added higher in almost all economic sectors
The overall price-adjusted gross value added in the third quarter of 2018 was up 1.0% on a year earlier. However, the development differed considerably between the individual sectors. The largest increase was recorded for construction (+4.2%), followed by information and communication (+3.1%) and business services (+1.3%). A slight year-on-year decrease (-0.1%) was observed for manufacturing.
Increase in both gross and net wages and salaries
At current prices, both the gross domestic product and the gross national income rose 3.0% year on year. Net national income at factor costs, consisting of compensation of employees and property and entrepreneurial income, increased too (+2.4%), according to first provisional calculations. Gross wages and salaries of employees were up 5.0% and net wages and salaries 5.1% on a year earlier. The disposable income of households rose by 2.9%, while the final consumption expenditure of households at current prices increased by 2.1%. This resulted in a provisional savings ratio of households of 9.0% in the third quarter of 2018.
Results reviewed for first and second quarter of 2018
In addition to calculating first data for the third quarter of 2018, the Federal Statistical Office reviewed and revised, where necessary, the results published previously for the first and second quarter of 2018. The first provisional results are reviewed to incorporate new statistical information. In this way, the best possible results at the relevant publication date are available to data users for analyses and forecasts. As reported in the first release of 14 November 2018, this did not lead to any corrections for the gross domestic product regarding the results published earlier for the first and the second quarter. As is usual for seasonally and calendar-adjusted series, however, modified results may appear in the whole time series from 1991 onwards.
More information
National accounts data may be accessed via the Destatis website. More detailed results are published in Fachserie 18 "National Accounts", series 1.2 "Quarterly results" and series 1.3 "Seasonally adjusted quarterly results using Census X-12-ARIMA and BV 4.1". The above and other publications can be downloaded from National accounts. A detailed quality report on national accounts is available at the internet.
| Unadjusted figures | Figures according to Census X-12-ARIMA price-adjusted, chain-linked | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At current prices | Price-adjusted, chain-linked | Seasonally and calendar-adjusted | calendar-adjusted | |||||
| EUR billion | % 1 | 2010 = 100 | % 1 | 2010 = 100 | % 2 | % 1 3 | ||
| 1 Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year in %. 2 Change on the previous year or quarter in %. 3 As for years, the calendar-adjusted values equal the seasonally and calendar-adjusted values (except for differences due to rounding). qtr = quarter | ||||||||
| 2016 | 3,159.75 | 3.6 | 111.26 | 2.2 | 111.06 | 2.2 | 2.2 | |
| 2017 | 3,277.34 | 3.7 | 113.66 | 2.2 | 113.79 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |
| 2016 | 1st qtr | 770.40 | 3.7 | 109.68 | 2.0 | 110.49 | 0.9 | 2.4 |
| 2nd qtr | 789.22 | 5.2 | 111.45 | 3.7 | 110.98 | 0.4 | 2.3 | |
| 3rd qtr | 799.88 | 3.1 | 113.05 | 1.9 | 111.17 | 0.2 | 2.0 | |
| 4th qtr | 800.25 | 2.6 | 110.86 | 1.4 | 111.60 | 0.4 | 1.9 | |
| 2017 | 1st qtr | 803.37 | 4.3 | 113.40 | 3.4 | 112.84 | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| 2nd qtr | 808.72 | 2.5 | 112.45 | 0.9 | 113.46 | 0.5 | 2.2 | |
| 3rd qtr | 833.24 | 4.2 | 115.50 | 2.2 | 114.12 | 0.6 | 2.6 | |
| 4th qtr | 832.01 | 4.0 | 113.27 | 2.2 | 114.73 | 0.5 | 2.8 | |
| 2018 | 1st qtr | 828.98 | 3.2 | 114.95 | 1.4 | 115.15 | 0.4 | 2.1 |
| 2nd qtr | 842.86 | 4.2 | 115.09 | 2.3 | 115.67 | 0.5 | 2.0 | |
| 3rd qtr | 858.38 | 3.0 | 116.77 | 1.1 | 115.44 | -0.2 | 1.1 | |
| 2017 | 2018 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | |
| qtr = quarter | ||||||
| At current prices | ||||||
| EUR bn | ||||||
| Consumption expenditure | 2,371.051 | 596.412 | 615.919 | 586.668 | 606.537 | 611.477 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 1,732.176 | 440.092 | 443.093 | 427.578 | 445.270 | 449.502 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 638.875 | 156.320 | 172.826 | 159.090 | 161.267 | 161.975 |
| Gross capital formation | 658.497 | 179.896 | 151.732 | 178.491 | 169.467 | 202.243 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 665.722 | 170.858 | 173.796 | 159.823 | 179.565 | 181.635 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 215.214 | 51.741 | 61.221 | 51.819 | 56.115 | 54.011 |
| GFCF in construction | 326.630 | 88.219 | 79.993 | 77.290 | 92.194 | 95.921 |
| GFCF in other products | 123.878 | 30.898 | 32.582 | 30.714 | 31.256 | 31.703 |
| Domestic uses | 3,029.548 | 776.308 | 767.651 | 765.159 | 776.004 | 813.720 |
| Exports | 1,541.898 | 382.865 | 396.196 | 389.501 | 402.024 | 393.600 |
| Imports | 1,294.106 | 325.933 | 331.837 | 325.680 | 335.168 | 348.940 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) | 3,277.340 | 833.240 | 832.010 | 828.980 | 842.860 | 858.380 |
| Price-adjusted, chain-linked | ||||||
| Change on the previous year in % | ||||||
| Consumption expenditure | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Gross capital formation | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 5.5 | 7.6 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 3.7 |
| GFCF in construction | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| GFCF in other products | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Domestic uses | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| Exports | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 1.1 |
| Imports | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| memorandum item: | ||||||
| GDP per person in employment | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | -0.1 | 1.0 | -0.2 |
| GDP per hour worked by persons in employment | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 | -0.1 | -0.3 |
| Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP in percentage points | ||||||
| Consumption expenditure | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Gross capital formation | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| GFCF in construction | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| GFCF in other products | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Changes in inventories and so on | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 |
| Domestic uses | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Balance of exports and imports (net exports) | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.6 | -1.0 |
| 2017 | 2018 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | |
| 1 Only seasonally adjusted. qtr = quarter | |||||
| At current prices | |||||
| EUR bn | |||||
| Consumption expenditure | 594.926 | 599.954 | 603.829 | 609.380 | 611.236 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 434.602 | 437.699 | 441.542 | 444.553 | 445.081 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 160.324 | 162.255 | 162.287 | 164.827 | 166.155 |
| Gross capital formation | 166.172 | 167.757 | 170.807 | 177.137 | 187.254 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 167.919 | 169.833 | 173.467 | 175.717 | 178.528 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 54.572 | 55.102 | 56.245 | 56.427 | 56.872 |
| GFCF in construction | 82.271 | 83.387 | 85.806 | 87.637 | 89.776 |
| GFCF in other products | 31.076 | 31.344 | 31.416 | 31.653 | 31.880 |
| Domestic uses | 761.098 | 767.711 | 774.636 | 786.517 | 798.490 |
| Exports | 387.164 | 395.079 | 394.756 | 399.189 | 398.483 |
| Imports | 322.551 | 330.270 | 331.471 | 338.078 | 345.765 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) | 825.711 | 832.520 | 837.921 | 847.628 | 851.208 |
| Price-adjusted, chain-linked | |||||
| Change on the previous quarter in % | |||||
| Consumption expenditure | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -0.1 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Gross capital formation | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 4.2 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 1.2 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| GFCF in construction | -0.1 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| GFCF in other products | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Domestic uses | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Exports | 1.2 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 0.8 | -0.9 |
| Imports | 0.5 | 1.4 | -0.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.2 |
| memorandum item: | |||||
| GDP per person in employment | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.3 | -0.5 |
| GDP per hour worked by persons in employment 1 | -0.1 | 0.7 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -0.4 |
| Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP in percentage points | |||||
| Consumption expenditure | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.1 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Gross capital formation | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| GFCF in construction | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| GFCF in other products | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Changes in inventories and so on | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 |
| Domestic uses | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Balance of exports and imports (net exports) | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -1.0 |
| 2017 | 2018 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | |
| qtr = quarter | ||||||
| At current prices | ||||||
| EUR bn | ||||||
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 25.472 | 6.766 | 5.782 | 5.333 | 5.475 | 6.240 |
| Industry, excluding construction | 772.523 | 194.826 | 193.518 | 196.933 | 201.364 | 197.399 |
| including: | ||||||
| Manufacturing | 690.213 | 175.381 | 172.202 | 174.906 | 182.038 | 178.021 |
| Construction | 144.300 | 38.562 | 40.417 | 32.084 | 40.662 | 43.686 |
| Trade, transport, accommodation and food services | 478.409 | 122.496 | 121.945 | 116.555 | 126.464 | 125.827 |
| Information and communication | 137.237 | 35.429 | 34.264 | 36.109 | 34.849 | 37.025 |
| Financial and insurance activities | 113.337 | 28.361 | 28.293 | 28.136 | 28.212 | 28.136 |
| Real estate activities | 316.158 | 81.026 | 77.474 | 81.487 | 80.860 | 82.691 |
| Business services | 319.354 | 83.446 | 79.991 | 82.069 | 79.989 | 85.745 |
| Public services, education, health | 531.297 | 132.356 | 139.359 | 137.157 | 133.797 | 137.672 |
| Other services | 116.609 | 30.109 | 29.329 | 29.740 | 29.033 | 30.762 |
| Gross value added, total | 2,954.696 | 753.377 | 750.372 | 745.603 | 760.705 | 775.183 |
| Price-adjusted, chain-linked | ||||||
| Change on the previous year in % | ||||||
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.2 | -0.8 | -1.2 | -2.1 |
| Industry, excluding construction | 2.4 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 0.1 |
| including: | ||||||
| Manufacturing | 2.7 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 4.0 | -0.1 |
| Construction | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| Trade, transport, accommodation and food services | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| Information and communication | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.1 |
| Financial and insurance activities | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Real estate activities | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Business services | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Public services, education,health | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Other services | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| Gross value added, total | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 2017 | 2018 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | |
| qtr = quarter | ||||||
| At current prices | ||||||
| EUR bn | ||||||
| Gross national income | 3,346.282 | 851.742 | 857.632 | 850.993 | 846.151 | 877.615 |
| Net national income (factor costs) | 2,456.391 | 628.778 | 633.350 | 621.080 | 615.546 | 644.157 |
| Compensation of employees | 1,668.810 | 411.353 | 459.514 | 407.590 | 426.545 | 431.219 |
| Property and entrepreneurial income | 787.581 | 217.425 | 173.836 | 213.490 | 189.001 | 212.938 |
| Gross wages and salaries of employees | 1,366.618 | 337.421 | 377.590 | 333.319 | 349.234 | 354.459 |
| Net wages and salaries of employees | 902.933 | 227.741 | 249.226 | 220.296 | 225.344 | 239.274 |
| memorandum item: | ||||||
| Disposable income of households | 1,869.916 | 467.023 | 471.711 | 481.664 | 480.668 | 480.656 |
| Savings ratio (in %) | 9.9 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 13.5 | 9.8 | 9.0 |
| Change on the previous year in % | ||||||
| Gross national income | 3.8 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 |
| Net national income (factor costs) | 3.9 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 2.4 |
| Compensation of employees | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.8 |
| Property and entrepreneurial income | 3.3 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 3.4 | -2.1 |
| Gross wages and salaries of employees | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Net wages and salaries of employees | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 5.1 |
| memorandum item: | ||||||
| Disposable income of households | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.9 |
>>> brief methodological description
