Press release No. 064 of 22 February 2019
Gross domestic product, 4th quarter of 2018
0.0% on the previous quarter (price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted)
+0.9% on the same quarter a year earlier (price-adjusted)
+0.6% on the same quarter a year earlier (price- and calendar-adjusted)
WIESBADEN – German economic growth has stalled. As the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) already reported in its first release of 14 February 2019, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2018 remained at the same level as in the previous quarter (0.0%), upon price-, seasonal and calendar-adjustment. Thus there were two different phases of short-term economic development in Germany in 2018. In the first half of 2018, the GDP had increased, by 0.4% in the first quarter and 0.5% in the second quarter. In the third quarter, however, the GDP was down 0.2%. For the whole year of 2018, this was an increase of 1.4% (calendar-adjusted: 1.5%). Hence growth was slightly smaller than reported in January.
| 2017 | 2018 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr |
| 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 0.0 |
Quarter-on-quarter contributions to growth came mainly from domestic demand
The quarter-on-quarter comparison (price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted) shows that positive contributions to growth came from domestic demand. In the fourth quarter of 2018, gross fixed capital formation, especially in construction (+1.3%) but also in machinery and equipment (+0.7%), increased markedly compared with the third quarter of 2018. Household final consumption expenditure increased slightly (+0.2%), whereas final consumption expenditure of general government grew markedly (+1.6%). However, development of foreign trade did not make a positive contribution to growth in the fourth quarter. According to provisional calculations, exports and imports of goods and services increased by 0.7% each on the previous quarter.
Slower year-on-year growth
Measured by unadjusted figures, year-on-year economic growth continued to slow. The price-adjusted GDP rose by 0.9% (calendar-adjusted: 0.6%) in the fourth quarter of 2018, following increases of 1.1% (calendar-adjusted: also +1.1%) in the third quarter of 2018, 2.3% (calendar-adjusted: +2.0%) in the second quarter of 2018 and 1.4% in the first quarter of 2018 (calendar-adjusted: +2.1%).
| 2017 | 2018 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr |
| 3.4 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
Number of persons in employment continues to grow
The economic performance in the fourth quarter of 2018 was achieved by 45.2 million persons in employment, which was an increase of 507,000, or 1.1%, on a year earlier (see press release 054/19 of 18 February 2019).
According to first provisional results of the Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Employment Agency, the average number of hours worked per person in employment increased by 0.5%. The labour volume of the overall economy, which is the total number of hours worked by all persons in employment, rose by 1.6% compared with a year earlier.
Overall labour productivity (price-adjusted gross domestic product per hour worked by persons in employment) was down 0.7% on the previous year, according to provisional calculations. Measured per person in employment, it decreased by 0.2%.
Year-on year contributions to growth also from domestic demand
In a year-on-year comparison, too, positive contributions came mainly from gross fixed capital formation in the fourth quarter of 2018. Gross fixed capital formation in construction was markedly up (+4.0%); especially capital formation in dwellings rose on the fourth quarter of 2017. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment, too, rose considerably on a year earlier (+3.5%). Also, final consumption expenditure increased year on year. Household final consumption expenditure increased by a price-adjusted 1.0%, government final consumption expenditure by 1.8%.
However, foreign demand fell markedly towards the end of 2018. According to provisional calculations, exports of goods and services in the fourth quarter of 2018 rose by just 0.4% on the fourth quarter of 2017. Imports were up 3.2% in the same period.
Total gross value added increased, while in manufacturing it was down
The overall price- adjusted gross value added in the fourth quarter of 2018 was up 0.9% on a year earlier. However, the development differed considerably between the individual sectors. The largest increase was recorded for construction (+4.4%), followed by information and communication (+3.4%) and trade, transport, accommodation and food services (+2.0%). A considerable year-on-year decrease (-1.4%) was observed for manufacturing.
Increase in both gross and net wages and salaries
At current prices, the gross domestic product increased by 2.9% and the gross national income by 3.0% year on year. Net national income at factor costs, consisting of compensation of employees and property and entrepreneurial income, rose a total 2.5%. However, the development of the two components differed considerably. Compensation of employees was up 4.3% on the fourth quarter of 2017, whereas property and entrepreneurial income was down 2.2% according to first provisional calculations. Gross wages and salaries of employees were up 4.4% and net wages and salaries 4.2% on a year earlier. The disposable income of households rose by 3.5%, final consumption expenditure of households by 2.7%. This resulted in a provisional savings ratio of households of 9.3% in the fourth quarter of 2018.
Revision of previous results
In addition to calculating first data for the fourth quarter of 2018, the results published previously for the first three quarters of 2018 and the annual result for 2018 were also reviewed and, where necessary, new statistical information was incorporated in the calculation of results. As is usual for seasonally and calendar-adjusted series, however, modified results may appear in the whole time series from 1991 onwards.
| Unadjusted figures | Figures according to Census X-12-ARIMA, price-adjusted, chain-linked | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At current prices | Price-adjusted, chain-linked | Seasonally and calendar-adjusted | Calendar- adjusted | |||||
| EUR billion | % 1 | 2010 = 100 | % 1 | 2010 = 100 | % 2 | % 1 3 | ||
| 1 Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year in %. 2 Change on the previous year or quarter in %. 3 As for years, the calendar-adjusted values equal the seasonally and calendar-adjusted values (except for differences due to rounding). qtr = quarter | ||||||||
| 2017 | 3,277.34 | 3.7 | 113.66 | 2.2 | 113.79 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |
| 2018 | 3,386.00 | 3.3 | 115.28 | 1.4 | 115.44 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |
| 2017 | 1st qtr | 803.37 | 4.3 | 113.40 | 3.4 | 112.84 | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| 2nd qtr | 808.72 | 2.5 | 112.45 | 0.9 | 113.46 | 0.5 | 2.2 | |
| 3rd qtr | 833.24 | 4.2 | 115.50 | 2.2 | 114.12 | 0.6 | 2.6 | |
| 4th qtr | 832.01 | 4.0 | 113.27 | 2.2 | 114.73 | 0.5 | 2.8 | |
| 2018 | 1st qtr | 828.98 | 3.2 | 114.95 | 1.4 | 115.16 | 0.4 | 2.1 |
| 2nd qtr | 842.86 | 4.2 | 115.09 | 2.3 | 115.68 | 0.5 | 2.0 | |
| 3rd qtr | 858.38 | 3.0 | 116.77 | 1.1 | 115.45 | -0.2 | 1.1 | |
| 4th qtr | 855.78 | 2.9 | 114.30 | 0.9 | 115.47 | 0.0 | 0.6 | |
| 2018 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4 th qtr | |
| At current prices EUR bn. | |||||
| Consumption expenditure | 2,438.876 | 587.265 | 606.626 | 609.591 | 635.394 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 1,776.691 | 427.871 | 445.377 | 448.350 | 455.093 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 662.185 | 159.394 | 161.249 | 161.241 | 180.301 |
| Gross capital formation | 717.909 | 177.544 | 169.125 | 203.920 | 167.320 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 703.288 | 159.041 | 178.905 | 180.532 | 184.810 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 225.669 | 51.739 | 56.193 | 53.879 | 63.858 |
| GFCF in construction | 350.478 | 76.588 | 91.456 | 94.950 | 87.484 |
| GFCF in other products | 127.141 | 30.714 | 31.256 | 31.703 | 33.468 |
| Domestic uses | 3,156.785 | 764.809 | 775.751 | 813.511 | 802.714 |
| Exports | 1,590.160 | 389.631 | 402.130 | 393.973 | 404.426 |
| Imports | 1,360.945 | 325.460 | 335.021 | 349.104 | 351.360 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) | 3,386.000 | 828.980 | 842.860 | 858.380 | 855.780 |
| Price-adjusted, chain-linked Change on the previous year in % | |||||
| Consumption expenditure | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 1.2 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.8 |
| Gross capital formation | 5.4 | 1.6 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.4 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 2.6 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| GFCF in construction | 2.4 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 4.0 |
| GFCF in other products | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Domestic uses | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Exports | 2.0 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Imports | 3.3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.2 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| memorandum item: | |||||
| GDP per person in employment | 0.1 | -0.1 | 1.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| GDP per hour worked by persons in employment | -0.0 | 1.0 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
| Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP in percentage points | |||||
| Consumption expenditure | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.9 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Gross capital formation | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| GFCF in construction | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| GFCF in other products | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Changes in inventories and so on | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| Domestic uses | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Balance of exports and imports (net exports) | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.6 | -0.9 | -1.1 |
| 2018 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | |
| 1 Only seasonally adjusted. qtr = quarter | ||||
| At current prices EUR bn. | ||||
| Consumption expenditure | 604.185 | 608.743 | 609.873 | 617.042 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 441.566 | 443.911 | 444.455 | 447.726 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | 162.619 | 164.832 | 165.418 | 169.316 |
| Gross capital formation | 170.136 | 177.523 | 188.444 | 183.483 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 172.654 | 175.036 | 177.394 | 180.547 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 56.117 | 56.462 | 56.693 | 57.368 |
| GFCF in construction | 85.118 | 86.921 | 88.821 | 90.991 |
| GFCF in other products | 31.419 | 31.653 | 31.880 | 32.188 |
| Domestic uses | 774.321 | 786.266 | 798.317 | 800.525 |
| Exports | 394.988 | 399.416 | 398.958 | 402.995 |
| Imports | 331.365 | 338.030 | 346.044 | 349.607 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) | 837.944 | 847.652 | 851.231 | 853.913 |
| Price-adjusted, chain-linked Change on the previous quarter in % | ||||
| Consumption expenditure | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.6 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 0.4 | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | -0.4 | 0.8 | -0.3 | 1.6 |
| Gross capital formation | 1.1 | 2.1 | 4.5 | -1.9 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| GFCF in construction | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| GFCF in other products | -0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| Domestic uses | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Exports | -0.2 | 0.8 | -0.9 | 0.7 |
| Imports | -0.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 0.0 |
| memorandum item: | ||||
| GDP per person in employment | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.4 | -0.2 |
| GDP per hour worked by persons in employment 1 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 0.3 |
| Contributions to growth of price-adjusted GDP in percentage points | ||||
| Consumption expenditure | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.4 |
| Final consumption expenditure of households and NPISHs | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.1 |
| Government final consumption expenditure | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.3 |
| Gross capital formation | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | -0.4 |
| Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| GFCF in machinery and equipment | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| GFCF in construction | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| GFCF in other products | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Changes in inventories and so on | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 | -0.6 |
| Domestic uses | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Balance of exports and imports (net exports) | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.9 | 0.0 |
| 2018 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | 1st qtr | 2nd qtr | 3rd qtr | 4th qtr | |
| At current prices EUR bn. | |||||
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 23.188 | 5.328 | 5.481 | 6.384 | 5.995 |
| Industry, excluding construction | 786.946 | 196.985 | 201.427 | 196.397 | 192.137 |
| including: | |||||
| Manufacturing | 705.779 | 174.953 | 182.093 | 177.081 | 171.652 |
| Construction | 160.449 | 31.636 | 40.099 | 42.956 | 45.758 |
| Trade, transport, accommodation and food services | 495.985 | 116.164 | 126.826 | 126.464 | 126.531 |
| Information and communication | 143.934 | 36.078 | 34.770 | 37.113 | 35.973 |
| Financial and insurance activities | 112.602 | 28.136 | 28.218 | 28.175 | 28.073 |
| Real estate activities | 324.715 | 81.562 | 80.851 | 82.909 | 79.393 |
| Business services | 330.315 | 82.319 | 80.158 | 86.075 | 81.763 |
| Public services, education, health | 555.252 | 137.602 | 133.823 | 138.154 | 145.673 |
| Other services | 119.802 | 29.798 | 29.056 | 30.826 | 30.122 |
| Gross value added, total | 3,053.188 | 745.608 | 760.709 | 775.453 | 771.418 |
| Price-adjusted, chain-linked | |||||
| Agriculture, forestry and fishing | -1.6 | -0.9 | -1.3 | -2.2 | -1.9 |
| Industry, excluding construction | 0.8 | 1.7 | 3.3 | -0.2 | -1.5 |
| including: | |||||
| Manufacturing | 1.0 | 1.9 | 4.0 | -0.4 | -1.4 |
| Construction | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 4.4 |
| Trade, transport, accommodation and food services | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Information and communication | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| Financial and insurance activities | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Real estate activities | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Business services | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Public services, education, health | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Other services | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 |
| Gross value added, total | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
The above and other current national accounting results are available in the Genesis-Online database.
Due to conversion work on the internet pages, online publications containing further information are not available at present. A copy will be sent by email, if it is requested using our contact form.
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